SEC Weekly RPI Watch

10,200 Views | 81 Replies | Last: 7 yr ago by TangoMike
LeFraud
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Jan 30 UPDATE

8 Kentucky
9 Florida
19 South Carolina
28 Arkansas
41 Tennessee
53 Georgia
59 Vanderbilt
61 Auburn
68 Ole Miss
69 Alabama
81 Texas A&M
123 Mississippi State
137 LSU
269 Missouri
gphid97
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AG
Wow, didn't expect to see this post in the first week of December.
bobinator
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Anyone member when Mizzou was good at hoops?
Tobias Funke
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I member
wacarnolds
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bobinator said:

Anyone member when Mizzou was good at hoops?
Kim Anderson - worst hire of the decade in major college basketball?
bobinator
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Well it was probably their hire of Haith that helped lead to the mess that Kim Anderson inherited.

But worst coaching hire of the decade? I'll have to think on that. The BCG era at Texas Tech wasn't exactly lights out.
miller0926
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Using ESPN's RPI formula we have a RPI of .6032 which is #45.

Using CBS's and the teamranking's formula we have an RPI of .5915 which is #56 (this was the one I think matched up with the NCAA one)

On my spreadsheet it's at .5961 with ESPN's formula and .5865 with the CBS formula so I messed up already this year somewhere (but I can't find where and it's driving me nuts).

American and their 1-7 record is killing us right now. Right now our Opponent Win Percentage that makes up 50% of the formula is 28-15. It will dip a little today after you add Denver, but the 25% that our record makes up of it will rise a little to offset it (assuming we win instead of picking up a disastrous loss).
bobinator
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We're going to pick up another anchor in St. Francis.
Pumpkinhead
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For a refresher, here were the final RPI rankings at the end of the conference tournaments last season:

#10 Kentucky (got a 3-seed)
#18 Texas A&M (got a 3-seed, but more favorable bracket than Wildcats)
#45 Florida (missed NCAAT, NIT bid)
#49 Colorado (got an 8-seed)
#50 Texas Tech (got an 8-seed)
#70 Vanderbilt (got into NCAAT in 'play-in' game vs. Wichita State)
#72 South Carolina (missed NCAAT, NIT bid, became one of the 'just missed, did they deserve to be in instead of team X' stories on Selection Sunday)

Now, you can see that although RPI is a thing, there isn't some hard rule that if Team A has a better RPI than Team B, then Team A gets in over Team B.

Just look at Florida vs. Vandy last season. Florida was #45 in the RPI with a 21-15 record and Vandy was #70 with a 19-14 record yet Vandy got a chance in the 'Play-In' and Gators went to NIT. There were several other teams with worse RPI than Florida that also got NCAA bids.

bobinator
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We talked about this as the tournament neared last year, and we'll do it again I'm sure, but the committee doesn't look at specific team RPI's really at all, but they look more at RPI groupings. Your records against the top 25 or top 50 and that sort of thing.

So the RPI is the foundation for a lot of things the committee talks about, but not in the way a lot of people talk about it.
Pumpkinhead
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bobinator said:

We talked about this as the tournament neared last year, and we'll do it again I'm sure, but the committee doesn't look at specific team RPI's really at all, but they look more at RPI groupings. Your records against the top 25 or top 50 and that sort of thing.

So the RPI is the foundation for a lot of things the committee talks about, but not in the way a lot of people talk about it.
Bob, regarding specifically Florida, taking I quick look to refresh my memory, I guess the issue with them was they did not have a single top-50 RPI win last year. Vanderbilt really never looked very good the entire year, lost every single non-con game against a legit opponent (they had a 7-5 non-con record). They went a mediocre 10-8 in conference play...but...

They had two top-50 RPI wins...they had a win vs Florida and a win vs. Texas A&M.

miller0926
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I think Kentucky was actually a 4-seed, and that's what caused all the backlash.

And tbh, I always wanted to go to the conference tourney, but now I think it would be a waste.
mhayden
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bobinator said:

Well it was probably their hire of Haith that helped lead to the mess that Kim Anderson inherited.

But worst coaching hire of the decade? I'll have to think on that. The BCG era at Texas Tech wasn't exactly lights out.

As you said, Anderson walked into a situation that was caused by Haith -- they wound up with Kim Anderson because no one else really wanted the job, so hard to call that one a bad hire.

BCG took a 13 win Tech team and won 8 games... Certainly not an improvement, but it's not as if they took a huge step back. You could make a stronger case that Kentucky hiring BCG had worse results than TTech.

A bit outside the 10 year mark, but Norman Roberts (and then his successor Steve Lavin) probably aren't bad choices for worst hires at major conference basketball schools. You can say Mike Jarvis only kept his head above water because of the previous coach's recruits, but St. Johns went from a perennial 20+ win team to an afterthought in the Big East under Roberts.
Pumpkinhead
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For just a single season 'one of most underachieving performances in last decade', how can you not include the 2015-2016 LSU Tigers coached by Johnny Jones? They didn't even go to the NIT...with #1 NBA draft pick Ben Simmons and a ton of other talent. Total complete chemical mess over there with that bunch.
bobinator
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Johnny Jones is a pretty bad hire, but they've at least been decent.

John Pelphrey sucked pretty bad at Arkansas.
bobinator
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There's more to "worst hire" then just product on the court though.

BCG was hired by Tech, they were horrible (which was expected), but then ended up only being there one season, like 12 players left the program, and there were all sort of allegations of player misconduct and whatnot.

I'd say that's a pretty bad hire.
bobinator
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Yeah, that's a good example of what I mean when I say they don't look at specific RPI, but they use it as a framework for other things. Which, to be clear on my stance on the RPI, doesn't really make it any better.

"We know this concrete isn't the best, but we're not building the house out of it, only the foundation for the house..."

mhayden
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bobinator said:

There's more to "worst hire" then just product on the court though.

BCG was hired by Tech, they were horrible (which was expected), but then ended up only being there one season, like 12 players left the program, and there were all sort of allegations of player misconduct and whatnot.

I'd say that's a pretty bad hire.

Hard for me to consider someone a "worst hire" when they don't really do that much damage to the program as a whole and are gone in a year. Hell, I imagine season ticket sales even got a healthy boost.
miller0926
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miller0926 said:

Using ESPN's RPI formula we have a RPI of .6032 which is #45.

Using CBS's and the teamranking's formula we have an RPI of .5915 which is #56 (this was the one I think matched up with the NCAA one)

On my spreadsheet it's at .5961 with ESPN's formula and .5865 with the CBS formula so I messed up already this year somewhere (but I can't find where and it's driving me nuts).

American and their 1-7 record is killing us right now. Right now our Opponent Win Percentage that makes up 50% of the formula is 28-15. It will dip a little today after you add Denver, but the 25% that our record makes up of it will rise a little to offset it (assuming we win instead of picking up a disastrous loss).

After yesterday's game, our RPI went down to .5990 on ESPN and .5879 on CBS
bobinator
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Our RPI will be fine and we'll have plenty of games against the RPI Top 50 for the committee to judge us on. We have a neutral court game against Arizona, and road games at Kentucky, West Virginia, Florida and South Carolina still to go. All of those teams will almost definitely be in or around the RPI top 25 and a few other SEC teams could be creeping around the top 50.

I said this back when some people (not all, but some) were whining about this year's schedule compared to last year's. This year's could end up being better statistically, even if it's not quite as sexy from a rivalry standpoint.
mhayden
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Our RPI will be fine as long as we pickup at least one more significant OOC win (and don't lose any to OOC stinkers).

As for the schedule complaints -- people were more complaining about the home schedule... We had Baylor, Florida, Iowa State and Kentucky.

This year we have... Kentucky.
bobinator
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I was also complaining about our home schedule, it's awful, even though USC is a good home opponent by normal standards. But there was a lot of complaining that it was bad from a strength-of-schedule standpoint.
DeangeloVickers
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Our OOC home schedule has been awful as long as I've been a fan

Iowa State last year was fun
Arizona one year
Then the next most rememberable one was A&m corpus when they beat us
mhayden
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Yeah, but the big difference in previous years was that we had the Big 12 conf schedule to offset, so we had 3-4 legitimate teams coming to Reed every year.

With the move to the SEC and their putrid basketball play... you have Kentucky you can mark as a big game (if you get them at home).... and then... really nobody unless Florida returns to power.
bobinator
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I actually disagree that it has much to do with the quality, it's more just about the names. If basically any SEC team other than Kentucky were ranked #10 or something I bet like maybe 1% of students would know that. Baylor or Texas Tech could be winless and more people would still show up.

But the end result is the same for sure.
bobinator
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Simple truth is it takes a special confluence of events for us to get a good home non-con schedule, especially now in years we're away in the SEC/Big 12 Challenge.

Though it would help if we'd sign home-and-home deals with Baylor and Texas that expire when the sun explodes.
Pumpkinhead
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Ryno01 said:

Our OOC home schedule has been awful as long as I've been a fan

Iowa State last year was fun
Arizona one year
Then the next most rememberable one was A&m corpus when they beat us
Last year's home schedule seemed clearly the best since moving to the SEC.

- Baylor (blew the cubbies OUT!)
- Iowa State
- LSU w/ Ben Simmons visiting
- Kentucky (OT win baby!)
- Vanderbilt (included senior day and conf. champ net cutting ceremonies)

If I recall, Reed atmosphere was great with either good to 'sold-out' fan attendance for all of the above games.
Pumpkinhead
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bobinator said:

Simple truth is it takes a special confluence of events for us to get a good home non-con schedule, especially now in years we're away in the SEC/Big 12 Challenge.

Though it would help if we'd sign home-and-home deals with Baylor and Texas that expire when the sun explodes.
Yeah, we should play Baylor and horns annually IMO. In perfect world, we'd have a home game versus one of those two every season (home vs baylor and away vs. horns, then opposite the next year, and so forth).
bobinator
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Yeah that's what I mean. One here and one away. Gives us a good OOC home game and a good OOC true away game every year.
bobinator
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Pumpkinhead said:

Ryno01 said:

Our OOC home schedule has been awful as long as I've been a fan

Iowa State last year was fun
Arizona one year
Then the next most rememberable one was A&m corpus when they beat us
Last year's home schedule seemed clearly the best since moving to the SEC.

- Baylor (blew the cubbies OUT!)
- Iowa State
- LSU w/ Ben Simmons visiting
- Kentucky (OT win baby!)
- Vanderbilt (included senior day and conf. champ net cutting ceremonies)

If I recall, Reed atmosphere was great with either good to 'sold-out' fan attendance for all of the above games.
The crowd for Baylor sucked considering it was a rivalry game, but to be fair it was after the start of the winter break and students weren't here.
Iowa State and LSU crowds were awesome
Kentucky crowd was really good, but that's always true because of all the Kentucky fans.
The Vanderbilt crowd was good except for the student section.

chilimuybueno
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The Vandy game was awesome. Even better since my wife is Commodore! We do need some better coaches in the SEC to raise the level of the game.
Fightin' Texas Aggie Class of '80
miller0926
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This Kentucky-UNC game is wild. Malik Monk is a phenom.
mhayden
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Auburn hits a 3-pointer at the buzzer to survive at home against 5-5 Mercer.

This is looking like a 3-bid conference again.
jml2621
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This is why the RPI is a Joke and not even paid attention to in football. UF #4? USCe 2nd in the league? KY - 28????

4 Florida
12 South Carolina
16 Arkansas
20 Auburn
28 Kentucky
34 Ole Miss
45 Texas A&M
68 Georgia
78 Vanderbilt
108 LSU
160 Tennessee
167 Alabama
172 Mississippi State
209 Missouri


kenpom:

Kentucky: 4
Florida: 14
USCe: 32
Aggies: 36
Arkansas:44
UGa: 64
Vandy: 79
Bama 79
Vols: 83
Auburn: 88
Ole Miss: 94
LSU: 96
Miss St: 136
Mizery: 168


A&M and Arkansas are bubble teams. USCe is a wild card. KY and UF are naturally in, without an unforeseen collapse.


gphid97
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jml2621 said:

This is why the RPI is a Joke and not even paid attention to in football. UF #4? USCe 2nd in the league? KY - 28????

4 Florida
12 South Carolina
16 Arkansas
20 Auburn
28 Kentucky
34 Ole Miss
45 Texas A&M
68 Georgia
78 Vanderbilt
108 LSU
160 Tennessee
167 Alabama
172 Mississippi State
209 Missouri


kenpom:

Kentucky: 4
Florida: 14
USCe: 32
Aggies: 36
Arkansas:44
UGa: 64
Vandy: 79
Bama 79
Vols: 83
Auburn: 88
Ole Miss: 94
LSU: 96
Miss St: 136
Mizery: 168


A&M and Arkansas are bubble teams. USCe is a wild card. KY and UF are naturally in, without an unforeseen collapse.



Not to mention the fact that it's December.
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