If a shooting war...

2,440 Views | 12 Replies | Last: 6 yr ago by USAFAg
airplane driver
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S
with NKorea starts, what scenario do you see? I give 'em 3 days.
CT'97
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AG
A US dominated unified Korean peninsula is a worst case scenario for China and Russia. Neither will allow that to happen.
bigtruckguy3500
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How long did it take us to beat Iraq and Afghanistan?
74OA
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AG
.....and it took us six months to mobilize, transport and stage enough forces just to expel Iraq from Kuwait the first time around. NK is not going to sit on its hands and watch an invasion buildup happen. It will set Seoul on fire and launch spoiler missile and special forces attacks throughout the length of South Korea and beyond.

People also forget that Desert Shield/Desert Storm was launched while the US military was at the peak of its Cold War size and readiness and was fought on open terrain that was incredibly favorable to our strengths--mechanized warfare and airpower. DoD is now a shadow of that massive force (e.g. USAF down to 55 fighter squadrons from 134) and NK's mountainous terrain does not play to our strengths at all.
ABHag
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AG
Its not going to be quick. Maybe a year or two. These people forget that in Iraq and Afghanistan we weren't fighting a actual uniformed army, even now we are fighting a bunch of radicalized civilians wearing everyday clothes. The first thing the US will do is shut down NKs Navy and Air Force after that the US Navy will drop Marines as close to the capital city as possible while the Army and Air Force work their way past the DMZ with the SK army leading the way. Once Kim is dead the war is over. This isn't a terrorist organization, if we go to war with NK we are destroying a government not attacking a group of radicals that have ideals.
Rabid Cougar
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AG
I know one thing is a sure bet. Seoul will resemble Berlin in 1945.
aggievet00
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It'll be a horrible conventional conflict that'll result in the deaths of hundreds of thousands of SKs and thousands of American service members. Tensions here in Korea are very high and all for what?
CT'97
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AG
bigtruckguy3500 said:

How long did it take us to beat Iraq and Afghanistan?
We are still fighting in both of them so 15+ years. Probably a good starting point for a North Korea conflict.
Pro Sandy
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AG
74OA said:

.....and it took us six months to mobilize, transport and stage enough forces just to expel Iraq from Kuwait the first time around. NK is not going to sit on its hands and watch an invasion buildup happen. It will set Seoul on fire and launch spoiler missile and special forces attacks throughout the length of South Korea and beyond.

People also forget that Desert Shield/Desert Storm was launched while the US military was at the peak of its Cold War size and readiness and was fought on open terrain that was incredibly favorable to our strengths--mechanized warfare and airpower. DoD is now a shadow of that massive force and NK's mountainous terrain does not play to our strengths at all.
But we do have 40,000 troops in South Korea, another 50,000 in Japan, and the entire 7th Fleet already forward deployed in the area. Iraq, we had nothing in the area and had to start from scratch. We will still need several hundred thousand more troops, but I don't think it would be a 6 month build up from the time the President says to go in before we are able to go in.
Aggies Revenge
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AG
The big question. After the shooting is done, Seoul destroyed, and if China and Rus stay out of it, how the hell can we walk in and expect to rebuild a North Korean economy that has been neglected and barely functioning since 1952? It was bad enough when Germany reunified. The cost to SK and the US would be crippling.
BigJim49 AustinNowDallas
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AG
74OA said:

.....and it took us six months to mobilize, transport and stage enough forces just to expel Iraq from Kuwait the first time around. NK is not going to sit on its hands and watch an invasion buildup happen. It will set Seoul on fire and launch spoiler missile and special forces attacks throughout the length of South Korea and beyond.

People also forget that Desert Shield/Desert Storm was launched while the US military was at the peak of its Cold War size and readiness and was fought on open terrain that was incredibly favorable to our strengths--mechanized warfare and airpower. DoD is now a shadow of that massive force (e.g. USAF down to 55 fighter squadrons from 134) and NK's mountainous terrain does not play to our strengths at all.
South Korea will sit back and not strike back ? Or the Us ? Dream on !
BigJim49AustinnowDallas
CT'97
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AG
My guess is China will remove the current NK government in a coup. Stabilize things along the DMZ and seek an armistice with the US through the new puppet government. Long before we would be able to mobilize any significant number of troops to the peninsula.

I think all this talk of a shooting war in NK is aimed at China and to force their hand into action. Assuming it's a strategy and not just Trump being a blowhard, either way results in the same outcome. The current NK government is based on being at war with the USA. If there is no war with the USA then the NK government crumbles under it's own weight.
74OA
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AG
BigJim49 AustinNowDallas said:

74OA said:

.....and it took us six months to mobilize, transport and stage enough forces just to expel Iraq from Kuwait the first time around. NK is not going to sit on its hands and watch an invasion buildup happen. It will set Seoul on fire and launch spoiler missile and special forces attacks throughout the length of South Korea and beyond.

People also forget that Desert Shield/Desert Storm was launched while the US military was at the peak of its Cold War size and readiness and was fought on open terrain that was incredibly favorable to our strengths--mechanized warfare and airpower. DoD is now a shadow of that massive force (e.g. USAF down to 55 fighter squadrons from 134) and NK's mountainous terrain does not play to our strengths at all.
South Korea will sit back and not strike back ? Or the Us ? Dream on !
What an odd conclusion to draw from my post.
USAFAg
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AG
BigJim49 AustinNowDallas said:

74OA said:

.....and it took us six months to mobilize, transport and stage enough forces just to expel Iraq from Kuwait the first time around. NK is not going to sit on its hands and watch an invasion buildup happen. It will set Seoul on fire and launch spoiler missile and special forces attacks throughout the length of South Korea and beyond.

People also forget that Desert Shield/Desert Storm was launched while the US military was at the peak of its Cold War size and readiness and was fought on open terrain that was incredibly favorable to our strengths--mechanized warfare and airpower. DoD is now a shadow of that massive force (e.g. USAF down to 55 fighter squadrons from 134) and NK's mountainous terrain does not play to our strengths at all.
South Korea will sit back and not strike back ? Or the Us ? Dream on !
Yeah.....not what's he's saying. He's saying that it will be neither quick, nor easy, because we aren't what we used to be.

The nKAF will cease to exist as threat pretty rapidly, as well as their Navy, but their Army, ballistic missiles, SF's and long range Arty will be a much harder proposition. Their Army primarily because of it's size, the others because they are all buried, bunkered, have hides or are mobile. They have been preparing for this since the 1950's and it would be costly for us to think they can't see either side's strengths and weaknesses.

Plus, China is not going to allow a Western aligned nation on the Yalu. They were clear about that in the first Korean War and have made it clear that is still their policy.

12thFan/Websider Since 2003
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