It'd be neat if a historian put together a win probability chart for the revolutionary war. The type of chart I'm thinking of looks like so:



Has anyone ever seen anything like this done? It'd be neat to see how things swung back and forth. I'd say the British would have an 85%+ chance to win at the outbreak of the revolutionary war.

It would be hard to plot because it had less to do with military victory and more to do with political pressure on the King back at home. I'm not sure how you quantify that enough to put it on a chart.