Skyrocketing again. Put our new build on hold due to the crazy spike in September thinking we'd see prices come back down when supply caught up with demand in the winter. Had a momentary glimmer of hope in October but lumber is back off to the races. Any thoughts on when we might see it settle down? Seems to be up 2-4% per day over the last two weeks.

Thanks!

We just measured new cabinets and trim work for a remodel.

Not looking forward to the quote.

I'm actually more worried about lumber costs than countertops at this point.

Things are holding and some dimensions going down. Same is trending December. Downward trend with supply increasing.

The issue is demand. Home builders are chewing up the bulk purchase, so your retail will remain high. You are NOT going to save money by timing the lumber market on a single build.

c-jags said:

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We just measured new cabinets and trim work for a remodel.

Not looking forward to the quote.

I'm actually more worried about lumber costs than countertops at this point.

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Dimensional was hit hard. If someone uses this excuse for trim and cabinets, they are scamming. Our prices have remained steady on trim, doors, etc.

fka ftc said:

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c-jags said:

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We just measured new cabinets and trim work for a remodel.

Not looking forward to the quote.

I'm actually more worried about lumber costs than countertops at this point.

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Dimensional was hit hard. If someone uses this excuse for trim and cabinets, they are scamming. Our prices have remained steady on trim, doors, etc.

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I was curious about cabinets and hardwood floors as well. Is the impact seen there? It definitely is on the cedar fence!

All yellow pine is on the rise right now....are you talking about a different species? The last 7-10 days have been brutal for the pine market.

fka ftc said:

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c-jags said:

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We just measured new cabinets and trim work for a remodel.

Not looking forward to the quote.

I'm actually more worried about lumber costs than countertops at this point.

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Dimensional was hit hard. If someone uses this excuse for trim and cabinets, they are scamming. Our prices have remained steady on trim, doors, etc.

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i'm figuring that to be the case. our contractor didn't seem worried, but i've been paying attention. fortunately we did our bid in the spring when prices were going up anyways.

fka ftc said:

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Things are holding and some dimensions going down. Same is trending December. Downward trend with supply increasing.

The issue is demand. Home builders are chewing up the bulk purchase, so your retail will remain high. You are NOT going to save money by timing the lumber market on a single build.

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What dimensions are going down???

Anyone have a guess when prices go down again?

Looks like it will be thru the first couple of months, if not more, next year.

Normally, this time of year, there is a lot of wood available at very reasonable prices as the winter slow down and retailers reduce inventory for tax reasons. Not this year.

Inventory is VERY low throughout the chain - retailers, wholesalers, mills. The pandemic, beetle kills, and other factors, have kept mills from having product and people to manufacture lumber. Demand is still extremely strong. Interest rates are low and there is a lot of building. So, simple S&D is keeping prices up.

Retailers, because of exorbitant prices, are reluctant to put a lot of wood on the ground for fear of buying it high and then prices falling. But this is a self-defeating situation. Minimal inventory because of high prices. Then you have low inventory but high demand. So, retailer needs wood - fast but will pay high

So, the industry thinks prices will be stout for awhile.

javajaws said:

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squeak79 said:

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Nailed it

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So we're screwed?

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Guess that depends on if you're buying our selling!

I need to rebuild my fence and have been holding off for lower prices. Feels like I'm going to be waiting for a awhile.

If your fence is treated yellow pine or cedar, it is particularly high right now. Cedar has jumped astronomically - twice in just the last few months. Doubt there will be any relief on western red cedar prices in a long time.

Hopefully, yellow pine (treated) pricing will pull back soon after the new year. In the current situation, treaters have bought the majority of yellow pine and forced, along with so much other demand, the price increase.

Fence has to be cedar per HOA. What are prices on cedar pickets like?

Aggie71013 said:

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Fence has to be cedar per HOA. What are prices on cedar pickets like?

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6 foot cedar pickets are ~ $3.17 right now

Precovid they were $2.97- $3.07 back in early March


4x4x8 treated post went from $6.97 to ~$19
Currently back under $7

92 5/8 studs went from $2.80's up to $5.99
I bought some recently at $3.25

2x4x16 treated went from ~$9.97 to ~$20
Currently back down to around $16.50


OSB went for. $7 to $25
Currently back down to ~$22

5/8" or 3/4?

Everything listed above is on the way up...if you can still buy 4x4-8 treated under $7, buy all you can get.

Currently have 3/4.

squeak79 said:

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Everything listed above is on the way up...if you can still buy 4x4-8 treated under $7, buy all you can get.

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https://www.lowes.com/search?searchTerm=4x4x8&catalog=4013895981

JP76 said:

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Aggie71013 said:

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Fence has to be cedar per HOA. What are prices on cedar pickets like?

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6 foot cedar pickets are ~ $3.17 right now

Precovid they were $2.97- $3.07 back in early March


4x4x8 treated post went from $6.97 to ~$19
Currently back under $7

92 5/8 studs went from $2.80's up to $5.99
I bought some recently at $3.25

2x4x16 treated went from ~$9.97 to ~$20
Currently back down to around $16.50


OSB went for. $7 to $25
Currently back down to ~$22

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Checked most above and in line with what we are seeing. We did not spike as high and are a bit above current, but we lock in for 90 days.

We buy about $400k-$500k / month in lumber. Trim, cabinets, windows, Hardie, hardware been constant throughout COVID. Our pricing spike hit in Sept/Oct. our spikes were in SYP dimensional, OSB and Plywood including radiant barrier, and treated lumber. What was interesting is that items such as Pilings saw no increase.

For the OP, depending on house the price increases should be in the $5k to $10k range, i would apply this for a 2500-3000sf house.

I put a line out for a longer term picture but last he and I spoke on this is that residential demand will remain strong, many home builders have a substantial backlog. If you are building, I would build now. Trades and labor remain very tight.

You could bet that some of that may ease with Biden immigration, but it will be MORE than offset by labor movement. I'll save the details for an F16 discussion, but California has been pushing for prevailing wages on all jobs public and private and the tea leaves indicated Biden admin will push for mandatory unions, prevailing wages, increased regulation, documentation, reporting, etc. so you could wait 6 months and save money on the lumber and pay a 3 fold increase in everything else. Caveat that this is independent of Georgia, regulations will likely succeed via executive order and actions by the secretaries. Sorry for the lengthy response.

Boat Shoes said:

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Skyrocketing again. Put our new build on hold due to the crazy spike in September thinking we'd see prices come back down when supply caught up with demand in the winter. Had a momentary glimmer of hope in October but lumber is back off to the races. Any thoughts on when we might see it settle down? Seems to be up 2-4% per day over the last two weeks.

Thanks!

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Due to the low mortgage rates, people are buying new homes like crazy. I work in new home construction and I've never been busier in my life.

Lumber has gotten so expensive that we now charge a $5000 lumber premium on any new sold jobs. When I material for extras or repairs, I pay an arm and a leg for it.

Until the mills are able to operate at full capacity, and the mortgage rates start going back up, expect to pay a premium for lumber.

sleepybeagle said:

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Anyone have a guess when prices go down again?

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2-3 months after a vaccine and interest rate adjustment.

I stand by my statement. Those prices will rise. Local retails are above $8. 4x4 pricing plummeted from late summer to yearly lows in late October...that has changed. At the mill level 4x4-8 is about 60% higher now than it was then.

Not disagreeing, just giving advice to anyone in the market with immediate needs.

I don't see how he's doing any of that without the Senate. Even with the Senate, states would flip ****, and I doubt SCOTUS would show that kind of usurpation. They can force things on federal jobs, but anything outside of that is going to be an uphill battle.

Framing lumber - yellow pine and spruce - is up roughly ten percent or more in the last few days.

It's double what it was one year ago.

third coast.. said:

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How are they ngoing to force unionized labor? How are illegals going to join a union? How would a small business unionize? This would be catastrophic for so many industries.

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See what California is pushing for now. The fear is what is happening in California would be extended to US.

You push the issue by requiring so much of X project requires union labor, or the use the term "skilled and trained" labor which leaves the union off but in order to become skilled and trained" you go through a union apprentice program.

How do they force you? Well, you need approvals for developments and for permits. And no such thing as illegals under Biden, so that will not be an issue. And lawd they donor give any consideration for small businesses. see COVID-19.

fka ftc said:

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third coast.. said:

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How are they ngoing to force unionized labor? How are illegals going to join a union? How would a small business unionize? This would be catastrophic for so many industries.

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See what California is pushing for now. The fear is what is happening in California would be extended to US.

You push the issue by requiring so much of X project requires union labor, or the use the term "skilled and trained" labor which leaves the union off but in order to become skilled and trained" you go through a union apprentice program.

How do they force you? Well, you need approvals for developments and for permits. And no such thing as illegals under Biden, so that will not be an issue. And lawd they donor give any consideration for small businesses. see COVID-19.

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That can only be done for anything federal without legislation.

You forgot make everyone buy materials through DBE suppliers as well