Food for thought on the world rankings re: Tiger

1,205 Views | 8 Replies | Last: 5 yr ago by '03ag
watty
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AG
Tiger Woods is currently ranked #13 in the world. Strong recovery by him, no doubt. But it's actually much stronger than people realize.

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I think I'm correct on all this.

The way the rankings work, you get a certain number of points for each tournament, and then those points are weighted (they start losing value over time), and a two-year period of tournaments makes your ranking. You take your total points over those two years and divide them by the number of tournaments played, and your average points per tournament is what the rankings are based on.

Tiger has 203.79 total points right now and is averaging 5.0948 points per tournament, ranking 13th. But... not really. The minimum # of tournaments you must play in a two year span is 40, and if you haven't played 40, your total points are still divided by 40.

So, Tiger has only played 22 tournaments in the last two years. So he is ranked 13th in the world right now despite essentially having 18 of his 40 tournaments give him zero points. In other words, if he had missed 18 consecutive cuts to end 2017, his ranking right now would be exactly the same. His actual points per tournament since he returned last year is 9.2272, which would rank him #2 in the world behind only Justin Rose.

So that's how good his 2018 actually was. Since missing the cut at the US Open, he has played 11 tournaments. Five top 10's, a win, a runner up, no missed cuts, six straight top 25s.

As he (hopefully) plays a full schedule this year, his ranking will continue to creep up as he backfills his world ranking points with actual results instead of zeros.
aggiedent
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AG
Yea.....more discussion about Tiger Woods. There just isn't enough on the Golf Channel.
Just an Ag
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AG
For drill, I'm not wasting my time on it, but if you took the points from any of the top 10 players final 17 finishes in 2017 and added it to Tiger's current points and divided by 40, what is the adjusted number? (say you took an average of the top 10). My guess is that the diluted points from those 17 tournaments do not move the needle a whole lot. I may be wrong.
watty
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AG
I just randomly used Rahm's (he's ranked 6th) and adding those points would move Tiger up to #8 in the world rather than 13. Tiger would leapfrog Day, Fowler, and McIlroy, among others.
PJYoung
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AG
aggiedent said:

Yea.....more discussion about Tiger Woods. There just isn't enough on the Golf Channel.

This was clearly marked in the thread title for you yet you opened it and responded. Why.
Just an Ag
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AG
watty said:

I just randomly used Rahm's (he's ranked 6th) and adding those points would move Tiger up to #8 in the world rather than 13. Tiger would leapfrog Day, Fowler, and McIlroy, among others.
Nice work! From #13 to #8. Going from 5.09 WR points to about 6 WR points. That's not much of a move on points, but still 5 spots higher. That's not bad for a has-been.
GIF Reactor
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AG
watty said:

Tiger Woods is currently ranked #13 in the world. Strong recovery by him, no doubt. But it's actually much stronger than people realize.

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I think I'm correct on all this.

The way the rankings work, you get a certain number of points for each tournament, and then those points are weighted (they start losing value over time), and a two-year period of tournaments makes your ranking. You take your total points over those two years and divide them by the number of tournaments played, and your average points per tournament is what the rankings are based on.

Tiger has 203.79 total points right now and is averaging 5.0948 points per tournament, ranking 13th. But... not really. The minimum # of tournaments you must play in a two year span is 40, and if you haven't played 40, your total points are still divided by 40.

So, Tiger has only played 22 tournaments in the last two years. So he is ranked 13th in the world right now despite essentially having 18 of his 40 tournaments give him zero points. In other words, if he had missed 18 consecutive cuts to end 2017, his ranking right now would be exactly the same. His actual points per tournament since he returned last year is 9.2272, which would rank him #2 in the world behind only Justin Rose.

So that's how good his 2018 actually was. Since missing the cut at the US Open, he has played 11 tournaments. Five top 10's, a win, a runner up, no missed cuts, six straight top 25s.

As he (hopefully) plays a full schedule this year, his ranking will continue to creep up as he backfills his world ranking points with actual results instead of zeros.

What do you think a "full schedule" will constitute for Tiger? I could see 15-18 tournaments per year, including the Hero. The only international events being the Hero, WGC Mexico, and The Open.

I cringe when I see him playing back to back weeks or long days like this past weekend. I keep waiting for him to grimace and grab his back on a tee shot, shot out of thick rough, or an awkward bunker stance.
Oyster DuPree
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AG
Mind-numbingly interesting stuff here
bagger05
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AG
He's only played 20+ events in a year five times in his career. So he will always be up against a divisor disadvantage.

Still, he's been on a really nice run lately. I think we will see him win again this year.
'03ag
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Same. He's trying to walk a very delicate tightrope. He has to play to stay sharp and carry momentum into the majors, but he can't wear himself out and risk re-injury.

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