BDF is right, A&M`s OOC schedule is easy

4,674 Views | 21 Replies | Last: 4 yr ago by goodAg80
goodAg80
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1:25p, 7/9/19
AG
Yeah right.



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MSU/SECALUM
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1:30p, 7/9/19
https://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/sec-football/why-non-sec-nonconference-slate-so-weak-2019/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
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BohunkAg
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1:34p, 7/9/19
AG
I don't know what the f-ck any of that means.
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nortex97
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1:34p, 7/9/19
AG
I only post to laugh at Tennessee having a 99.7 percent chance at their first game. Like they ever have a lock on winning a game.
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AgEng06
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1:37p, 7/9/19
AG
It's also funny that apparently UTEP has a 90% chance of beating Tech.

Nm... I apparently have no f-ing idea how to read that graphic.
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chigger
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1:46p, 7/9/19
AG
I like how we show up 8 times in the first thirteen schedules, meanwhile burnt orange shows up at 8 but then disappears til 30.
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goodAg80
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In reply to BohunkAg • 1:47p, 7/9/19
AG
BohunkAg said:
I don't know what the f-ck any of that means.
Top number in a cell is the chance of winning THAT game (compare to opponents number for outcome).

Bottom number in a cell is the chance of winning a certain number of games. (the 1st six cells for A&M are 100% which means A&M is predicted to win no less than 6 games).
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DifferenceMaker Ag
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1:47p, 7/9/19
The top 1 through 13 toughest schedules are all SEC teams. All 14 SEC teams are in the top 18. But those OOC slates are abhorrent right? I wonder how much these rankings would change if every SEC team substituted their OOC games for bye weeks?

Hint: Not much.
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BohunkAg
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In reply to goodAg80 • 2:30p, 7/9/19
AG
goodAg80 said:
BohunkAg said:
I don't know what the f-ck any of that means.
Top number in a cell is the chance of winning THAT game (compare to opponents number for outcome).

Bottom number in a cell is the chance of winning a certain number of games. (the 1st six cells for A&M are 100% which means A&M is predicted to win no less than 6 games).
You're telling me UTEP has like a 99.8% chance of winning 11 games? And Rice has a 100% chance of winning 10 games? This analysis seems all haywire.
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goodAg80
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In reply to BohunkAg • 2:49p, 7/9/19
AG
BohunkAg said:
goodAg80 said:
BohunkAg said:
I don't know what the f-ck any of that means.
Top number in a cell is the chance of winning THAT game (compare to opponents number for outcome).

Bottom number in a cell is the chance of winning a certain number of games. (the 1st six cells for A&M are 100% which means A&M is predicted to win no less than 6 games).
You're telling me UTEP has like a 99.8% chance of winning 11 games? And Rice has a 100% chance of winning 10 games? This analysis seems all haywire.
Hmm. You are right. I don't get it either.
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SchizoAg
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3:22p, 7/9/19
AG
You're going to need to post a link to the source so we can go read about it and find out what the numbers actually mean.
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Txgunrnnr
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In reply to SchizoAg • 3:38p, 7/9/19
AG
SchizoAg said:
You're going to need to post a link to the source so we can go read about it and find out what the numbers actually mean.
https://www.reddit.com/r/CFB/comments/b1heez/win_expectation_graphs_preseason_edition/
“If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses.” -Henry Ford

#FJB
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AgEng06
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In reply to Txgunrnnr • 3:40p, 7/9/19
AG
Txgunrnnr said:
SchizoAg said:
You're going to need to post a link to the source so we can go read about it and find out what the numbers actually mean.
https://www.reddit.com/r/CFB/comments/b1heez/win_expectation_graphs_preseason_edition/
Quote:
Strength of Schedule Graph
Every row in the graph represents a single team's schedule. The column furthest on the left shows that schedule's owner (i.e. which team has that schedule). The number in the upper left corner of the left column is the rank.

The body of the table shows every opponent on that team's schedule. The number in the upper left of each of these cells is the probability that an average top 25 team would win that game. The number in the bottom right of each of these cells is the probability that an average top 25 team would win at least that many games against that schedule.

The column furthest on the right is the expected number of wins for an average top 25 team against that schedule.
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AgCat93
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4:09p, 7/9/19
AG
If I'm reading this right, the Ags have no less than a 41% chance of winning each game. I'll take that.
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ABATTBQ11
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In reply to BohunkAg • 4:22p, 7/9/19
AG
BohunkAg said:
I don't know what the f-ck any of that means.


I was going to post sobering snarky, but then I realized you have an excellent T&A posting history. Carry on...
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Txgunrnnr
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In reply to AgCat93 • 4:24p, 7/9/19
AG
AgCat93 said:
If I'm reading this right, the Ags have no less than a 41% chance of winning each game. I'll take that.
I think it's saying a Top 5 team has no less than a 41% chance of winning each game.
“If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses.” -Henry Ford

#FJB
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ABATTBQ11
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In reply to goodAg80 • 4:25p, 7/9/19
AG
goodAg80 said:
BohunkAg said:
I don't know what the f-ck any of that means.
Top number in a cell is the chance of winning THAT game (compare to opponents number for outcome).

Bottom number in a cell is the chance of winning a certain number of games. (the 1st six cells for A&M are 100% which means A&M is predicted to win no less than 6 games).


This makes no sense. Look at tu and tcu. They both have a greater than 85% chance of winning against each other. Your probabilities do not as up to 1.

ETA Both Rice and UTEP have a 99.9% chance of being each other. Every team is projected to win most of its games. You might want to rethink this.
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AgEng06
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In reply to ABATTBQ11 • 4:43p, 7/9/19
AG
ABATTBQ11 said:
goodAg80 said:
BohunkAg said:
I don't know what the f-ck any of that means.
Top number in a cell is the chance of winning THAT game (compare to opponents number for outcome).

Bottom number in a cell is the chance of winning a certain number of games. (the 1st six cells for A&M are 100% which means A&M is predicted to win no less than 6 games).


This makes no sense. Look at tu and tcu. They both have a greater than 85% chance of winning against each other. Your probabilities do not as up to 1.

ETA Both Rice and UTEP have a 99.9% chance of being each other. Every team is projected to win most of its games. You might want to rethink this.
You might want to read the rest of the thread first....
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SchizoAg
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In reply to Txgunrnnr • 5:21p, 7/9/19
AG
Txgunrnnr said:
AgCat93 said:
If I'm reading this right, the Ags have no less than a 41% chance of winning each game. I'll take that.
I think it's saying a Top 5 team has no less than a 41% chance of winning each game.
No, it's saying that an average Top 25 team as a 41% or better chance of winning each game.

Read AgEng06's post, it's not that complicated.
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BohunkAg
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In reply to ABATTBQ11 • 7:41p, 7/9/19
AG
ABATTBQ11 said:
BohunkAg said:
I don't know what the f-ck any of that means.


I was going to post sobering snarky, but then I realized you have an excellent T&A posting history. Carry on...



I do? You haven't seen many of my posts apparently.
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FishyLamar
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8:35p, 7/9/19
AG
The chart shows the results of a simulation of each team's schedule if it were played by a "top 5" team. The end column shows the expected wins for that team playing that schedule. The fewer wins correlates to a tougher schedule.
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mellison
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7:33p, 7/13/19
AG
Why is the number in the top left of the box inconsistent for any given team?
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goodAg80
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In reply to BohunkAg • 8:12p, 7/13/19
AG
BohunkAg said:
ABATTBQ11 said:
BohunkAg said:
I don't know what the f-ck any of that means.


I was going to post sobering snarky, but then I realized you have an excellent T&A posting history. Carry on...



I do? You haven't seen many of my posts apparently.
Mrs. Bo and I have a thing. Bo always gets a little snarky with my posts.
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