PAC-12 or Independent?

Seriously, they should go to the MW. They could be a pretty decent team there and take over Boise's place when they have an off year.

The bigger question is where do K-State, Kansas, Baylor, and Iowa State go? There's not a P5 conference that'll take them. Hell, the only real P5 options in the BDF are the sips, Sooners, Okie Lite, and maybe TCU.

You don't need to be in a P5 to have a dominant B-ball program (UConn, Nova, etc), but you're right. I'd say the Big Ten will take them.

I still think Sip, tech, OU, and Ok St head to PAC-12 as a pod. They can keep their regional rivalries, while still participating in a "major" conference. The PAC would take Tech and OK St in order to land their big brothers.

Still works out well for us since many of their games would be starting at 9pm CST.

Baylor and TCU are cast into the desert.

Andy Farmer said:

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SEC.

But probably Southland.

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I like how the realistic options scare the **** out of you and you're forced to hide behind an attempt at humor.

I think eventually the texoma four (tu, ou, osu, tech/tcu) go pac12 because that conference needs more central time zone games.

I think the interesting fight is going to be between tcu and tech for that last spot. tech has more political clout but tcu probably offers more overall.

aggiehawg said:

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If were tech, I would be schmoozing the Texas teams in the AAC, UofH and SMU to be favorable to them joining along with TCU. AAC only has twelve teams currently.

CUSA is at 14 teams with four from Texas: UNT, UTEP, UTSA and Rice. Might not be room for them.

The days of the sips making demands for tagalongs to the PAC 12 are over. Nor do I think Larry Scott remains commissioner much longer since the way he set up their conference network has bombed just as spectacularly as the LHN.

Besides Powers is gone from tu. He was tech's protector and this will be a crisis time when the GOR expires. Every school for themselves.

Most likely outcome? Big XII boots Bowlsby, expands to 14, sips play nice with a conference network and the Big XII survives.

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i would definitely like to see this happen.

i see ou making a bunch of noise. especially if the SEC or Big 10 are making plays to add them to their conferences. how does ut entice them to stay? a tiered big 12 network payout? split profits 30%-30%-the other 40% divided between the other schools? it's a tricky situation.

Bo Darville said:

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Andy Farmer said:

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SEC.

But probably Southland.

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I like how the realistic options scare the **** out of you and you're forced to hide behind an attempt at humor.

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I like how you think the Southland is a "realistic" option in your attempt at humor.

Quote:

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i see ou making a bunch of noise. especially if the SEC or Big 10 are making plays to add them to their conferences. how does ut entice them to stay? a tiered big 12 network payout? split profits 30%-30%-the other 40% divided between the other schools? it's a tricky situation.

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SEC has no use for further expansion. B1G might but again, have no need that either tu or the Sooners really bring to the table, not to mention the required buy-in to the BTN. That's a big pill to swallow and getting larger every year.

IDK is the PAC has a buy-in for their crappy network but wouldn't be surprised that there is one. The Cali and the Arizona schools (and likely Oregon and Washington schools as well) do not want a pod system so 14 teams is about the max the PAC can expand.

At this point, the LHN really isn't a barrier as ESPN would gladly squash that deal to get out of it, if they get a conference network but then ESPN would have a platform problem for the added content. Ditto for Fox Sports juggling the B1G, half of the PAC without adding the other half of the Big XII. Notice the ACC has never gotten their conference network up, after years of promises.

That leaves the OTA networks. CBS has lucrative deal with the SEC. NBC has Notre Dame home games. ABC, thanks to Mickey Mouse and ESPN, have their games dictated to them.

IOW, even if the Big XII expands and tries to get a network deal they may not have any takers for the money they would want. That was the stumbling block two years ago when the Big XII went on the expansion dog and pony show. The networks were dictating who they would and wouldn't take.

Where they always end up, at the STD clinic.

Seriously doubt Tech would get kicked down to a non-power 5 league.

But weirder sh*t has happened so who knows.

Where do you find 4 schools that take the Big XII to 14 and add value? Houston maybe, but they are already in Texas and don't add a new market.

Memphis?
Colorado State?
Look east and build around WVU?

I don't really see a lot of options that look anything like P5 additions.

aggiehawg said:

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M.D. said:

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Seriously doubt Tech would get kicked down to a non-power 5 league.

But weirder sh*t has happened so who knows.

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Why not? What do they really bring to the table?

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It's a big school with lots of alumni and good sports programs. I don't really know what the criteria are so maybe I'm wrong and we'll end up in the MAC or somewhere like that.

SEC will grab either Kansas (rival for UK in B-ball and an easy win in the W) or grab OU (who I think joins the B1G).

Tech goes MW, UVW goes ACC while SECe steals one from them... to balance it out.

Texas goes PAC12, and could take Tech or TCU with. My guess is TCU is the better option.

Baylol sues to go P12, fails and ends up in the AAC.

OKSt rides OU's coattails to the B1G and Kstate/ Iowa St end up in MW

Wildcat said:

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Where do you find 4 schools that take the Big XII to 14 and add value? Houston maybe, but they are already in Texas and don't add a new market.

Memphis?
Colorado State?
Look east and build around WVU?

I don't really see a lot of options that look anything like P5 additions.

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TV sets and eyeballs are not the business models they once were, if we are talking conference networks. So I'm not sure which criteria would be appropriate to use. More about fit and geography, to me.

UofH, Memphis, Cincy maybe the largest of the Louisiana directional schools? The point is survival and making the best of a piss-poor situation.

The alternative is disbanding of the Big XII and everyone for themselves with not enough chairs to go around for everybody.

aggiehawg said:

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Wildcat said:

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Where do you find 4 schools that take the Big XII to 14 and add value? Houston maybe, but they are already in Texas and don't add a new market.

Memphis?
Colorado State?
Look east and build around WVU?

I don't really see a lot of options that look anything like P5 additions.

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TV sets and eyeballs are not the business models they once were, if we are talking conference networks. So I'm not sure which criteria would be appropriate to use. More about fit and geography, to me.

UofH, Memphis, Cincy maybe the largest of the Louisiana directional schools? The point is survival and making the best of a piss-poor situation.

The alternative is disbanding of the Big XII and everyone for themselves with not enough chairs to go around for everybody.

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If it's about fit and geography then the PAC 12 is where we'll end up.

Who says the Big 12 is disbanding anyway?

aggiehawg said:

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Wildcat said:

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Where do you find 4 schools that take the Big XII to 14 and add value? Houston maybe, but they are already in Texas and don't add a new market.

Memphis?
Colorado State?
Look east and build around WVU?

I don't really see a lot of options that look anything like P5 additions.

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TV sets and eyeballs are not the business models they once were, if we are talking conference networks. So I'm not sure which criteria would be appropriate to use. More about fit and geography, to me.

UofH, Memphis, Cincy maybe the largest of the Louisiana directional schools? The point is survival and making the best of a piss-poor situation.

The alternative is disbanding of the Big XII and everyone for themselves with not enough chairs to go around for everybody.

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If the big 12 went as far east as WVU then I don't see how UCF isnt their number 1 target going forward.

Agvet12 said:

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SEC will grab either Kansas (rival for UK in B-ball and an easy win in the W) or grab OU (who I think joins the B1G).

Tech goes MW, UVW goes ACC while SECe steals one from them... to balance it out.

Texas goes PAC12, and could take Tech or TCU with. My guess is TCU is the better option.

Baylol sues to go P12, fails and ends up in the AAC.

OKSt rides OU's coattails to the B1G and Kstate/ Iowa St end up in MW

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SEC is not taking anyone else. No advantage in doing so.

Nor does the B1G truly need expansion. Plus they have a buy-in requirement so only the richest of programs can afford to take a steep haircut for a number of years. Sooners and sips and even their finances aren't all that great at the moment.

PAC doesn't like religious schools and TCU is just too small to bring much to the table except for the AAC. Would be a good acquisition for them.

The ACC has a GOR. No poaching from them without $$$$$$ being exchanged.

Burt Macklin, FBI said:

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No way the Pac ever agrees to allow a private Christian school in the conference, so Baylor and TCU are out. That's why Utah got in over BYU.

tu (if they don't go independent), OU, and Kansas will land in a good conference in the next round of realignment. TCU, WVU, and possibly K State MIGHT end up somewhere good depending on how everything shakes out. Everyone else is pretty much boned.

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I'm not sure tu can strike the same deal that Notre Dame has with the ACC, not without a network partner like Notre Dame has with NBC. LHN won't cut it as a "network partner." What value would that bring to the conference taking a partial member?

Have doubts about that.

There aren't any perfect alternatives except for the PAC for Sooners and Sips and even then there are some issues to work out.

Sips play nice? When has that ever happened? All joking aside, I think the Big 12 is still the place place for Texas. ESPN has spent a ton of money on the LHN, so they would feel free to use it a trump card to keep Texas from going to the Big Ten, which has a FOX as a partner on the BTN and football.