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WSJ Emerging Housing Markets Index

2,775 Views | 19 Replies | Last: 2 yr ago by SquanchyAg
YouBet
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AG
https://www.wsj.com/articles/see-the-full-rankings-for-wsj-realtor-coms-emerging-housing-markets-index-11626756019

Thought this was interesting. It looks to be the second year they've done this list. Theoretically, it ranks which housing markets (top 300 nationally) are expected to provide both a strong return on investmentand are a nice place to live.

Texas cities took a hit this year because they added property taxes to their methodology.

I think their Amenities methodology (6.25% of total score) is meaningless and laughable:

Quote:

Data consists of the number of Starbucks, Whole Foods and Trader Joe's locations within the area, per capita.
Really? That's the extent of their Amenities methodology?
one MEEN Ag
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YouBet said:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/see-the-full-rankings-for-wsj-realtor-coms-emerging-housing-markets-index-11626756019

Thought this was interesting. It looks to be the second year they've done this list. Theoretically, it ranks which housing markets (top 300 nationally) are expected to provide both a strong return on investmentand are a nice place to live.

Texas cities took a hit this year because they added property taxes to their methodology.

I think their Amenities methodology (6.25% of total score) is meaningless and laughable:

Quote:

Data consists of the number of Starbucks, Whole Foods and Trader Joe's locations within the area, per capita.
Really? That's the extent of their Amenities methodology?
I don't think thats too bad of a signal to watch. What they're really tracking is companies that fight geographically for access to local, strong discretionary income. If Whole Foods and Trader Joes have scoped out the place, you can bet they think its a good long term play for middle/upper middle class amenities. Starbucks is eh for me. I can show you a starbucks near a bad part of town. I can't say the same about whole food/trader joes.

I'm really struggling to think of other national brands that signal 'nice area' that are exclusive to nice areas.
YouBet
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Good points. I could also argue Starbucks shouldn't really be an indicator simply because the barriers of entry to operating a like competitor are way more easily hurdled vs a WF.

We drive 6-7 hours from Dallas to the coast every month. Almost every small town we drive through now has it's own local, "high end" coffee shop, if they don't already have a Starbucks. Starbucks obviously has economies of scale to bring to the table and can float some losers here and there, but I could open up a coffee shop in relatively short order.

However, perception is reality and a Starbucks is a flag for "we've made it!".

Anyway, interesting report. The city we are considering is low on the list and we are good with that.
MAS444
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The Whole Foods on 610 and Yale in Houston is right next to a bad area.
Diggity
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That was one of a dozen or so "365" concepts, that were supposed to be more budget friendly.

Then they realized people could just go to HEB/Kroger for that and killed the concept.
MAS444
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Yes. Killed the 365 concept but it's still a Whole Foods Market next to a very crappy area.
Diggity
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understood...just pointing out that this wasn't a typical store location for them so it wouldn't necessarily throw out the whole thesis.
YouBet
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Of note, is that Waco is #7 overall on this list.

Chip and Joanna should probably live tax free forever there considering the ROI that city has seen solely because of them.
one MEEN Ag
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MAS444 said:

Yes. Killed the 365 concept but it's still a Whole Foods Market next to a very crappy area.
I think the 365 data points actually makes the thesis even better. Give better granularity of results.

Everyone knows 365 was supposed to be their 'more affordable but still whole foods' brand. And where do you put such a thing that has semi-price conscious shoppers who want to signal they shop at brands that are above their paygrade? Well, right on the edge of the greater heights!

I still, after thinking for a few hours, cannot come up with national brands better than whole foods and trader joes on tracking exactly where nice areas are.

-Kendra Scott? Still attached to malls, but are they new enough to not be dumb enough to go into old malls?
-Schwab Retail Office? Meh, still more show than 'actually has to be there;
-SuperTarget? but thats a little harder to tease out



hph6203
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Some kind of subscription based/per class exercise box like Orange Theory or Pure Barre or some such.
YouBet
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hph6203 said:

Some kind of subscription based/per class exercise box like Orange Theory or Pure Barre or some such.


Maybe completely extraneous niche stores like specialized popsicle makers or cupcake vendors. That just screams "we have so much extra money we are blindly throwing it at stupid stuff because we are bored from all of our other amenities".
one MEEN Ag
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hph6203 said:

Some kind of subscription based/per class exercise box like Orange Theory or Pure Barre or some such.
Thats a good one. And it fits the same prediction theory - reliant on extremely tight radius of people to survive and also something that people go to a lot (in theory).

I bet you could make an overlay of the different brands of gyms (and their in brand tiers) and get good data.

Lifetime's different tiers would be good to look at. Equinox would just be eye rolling because how few they are versus them always being in super super premium locations.
one MEEN Ag
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YouBet said:

hph6203 said:

Some kind of subscription based/per class exercise box like Orange Theory or Pure Barre or some such.


Maybe completely extraneous niche stores like specialized popsicle makers or cupcake vendors. That just screams "we have so much extra money we are blindly throwing it at stupid stuff because we are bored from all of our other amenities".
The only issue with that model is those stores are usually boutique, locally owned, stores. Not a national brand.

But definitely still good.

A small business cookie shop is the antithesis of a small business liquor store.
ChoppinDs40
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YouBet said:

Of note, is that Waco is #7 overall on this list.

Chip and Joanna should probably live tax free forever there considering the ROI that city has seen solely because of them.
so true. Even driving the 35 route, you see how run-down the city is.

With the traffic/construction now, googlemaps often has you taking a detour. That route that kinda goes parallel to 35 on the west side is so bad and run down. empty buildings, bars on windows, bail bonds everywhere.

woof.
evan_aggie
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MAS444 said:

The Whole Foods on 610 and Yale in Houston is right next to a bad area.


Well, you did include "Houston"..
itsyourboypookie
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Anyone buying at those places has discretionary income.

Look at the heights in Houston
The Fife
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Paywall....


Where's Charleston, SC on the list?
YouBet
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The Fife said:

Paywall....


Where's Charleston, SC on the list?
84 out of 300.
The Fife
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Not sure if that sounds about right or not. What I can say is that in an older, hotter part of town (location + excellent schools) the first thing to show up whenever a house sells is a dumpster. Prices feel a bit bubbly to me but I'm not moving so it's all Monopoly money.
dc509
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one MEEN Ag said:

YouBet said:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/see-the-full-rankings-for-wsj-realtor-coms-emerging-housing-markets-index-11626756019

Thought this was interesting. It looks to be the second year they've done this list. Theoretically, it ranks which housing markets (top 300 nationally) are expected to provide both a strong return on investmentand are a nice place to live.

Texas cities took a hit this year because they added property taxes to their methodology.

I think their Amenities methodology (6.25% of total score) is meaningless and laughable:

Quote:

Data consists of the number of Starbucks, Whole Foods and Trader Joe's locations within the area, per capita.
Really? That's the extent of their Amenities methodology?
I don't think thats too bad of a signal to watch. What they're really tracking is companies that fight geographically for access to local, strong discretionary income. If Whole Foods and Trader Joes have scoped out the place, you can bet they think its a good long term play for middle/upper middle class amenities. Starbucks is eh for me. I can show you a starbucks near a bad part of town. I can't say the same about whole food/trader joes.

I'm really struggling to think of other national brands that signal 'nice area' that are exclusive to nice areas.
Exactly. Their site selection criteria is worth paying attention to in this regard.
SquanchyAg
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MAS444 said:

The Whole Foods on 610 and Yale in Houston is right next to a bad area.
yah, but that's an "lol poor" Whole Foods. It isn't the same as a regular Whole Foods.
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