Questions for investors, agents and lenders, particularly those with a view to speculative land holdings for future development:

What's your view of the market direction and what kind of equity requirements are you seeing from lenders?

Are lenders starting to pull back?

What's your outlook for the market over the next 2-5 years?

We're in north texas, and Land has been going crazy so the basic assumption is we're at or very near the top market - but curious if y'all see a large decline in lending on non-income property and what kind of changes you've seen in LTV/C

At the end of the day we anticipate a correction in 3-5 years, especially as rates go up, but that's been the thought for a while now....

Thank you in advance!

If non-farmland values in Texas actually decline, not just a short decline in demand, we will have a lot bigger problems in this country than just land values declining.

Here are my random thoughts:

- They aren't making anymore land (China/Dubai notwithstanding), so that makes for a scarce commodity, which is a good thing.

- Land values didn't fall during the last downturn, for myriad reasons.

- Land is not a poor man's game. The wealthiest people in history have always been land owners.

- The cost of holding non-Ag land can be high, especially if you are wanting to finance it. Land is a poor income generator unless you have minerals or a non-ag lease. (see above)

- I would be careful with any Spec Development Land Purchases unless you have a use for it. If you are buying land in the near-term development pathway, then you are likely paying a premium that you might not get back.

- Spec Land is about inside information i.e. you know something the market doesn't. So, 1) you know what land is trading for behind the scenes, and a seller is way underpriced. 2) You know of an announcement for new development/roads coming before hand. etc,

- Otherwise, land is a long-term play and is a great store of wealth. Its about patience and forsight. You can see where development will be, but your are far enough in front of it that prices haven't been pushed up.

Farm land is easy to finance (20-30% down). Spec/investment land is very difficult to finance (30-50% down), if the bank really likes you and your financial statement.

Thank you for the replies

I'm going to check Gilliland/TREC for land prices to chart after the last bubble burst

My thought has been wait for the next downturn to buy and curious if there are any early indicators that we might be topping out (intent behind my questions)

Trying to be patient over the next 3-5 years but we're primarily looking for recreational purposes but everything close has "dallas" prices or future development competiton. Don't really look forward to a downturn but a blip down in price would be nice