Here's the problem with business market valuation - it's incredibly subjective, and there is literally no wrong answer to the question of "what is a business worth." Of course, there are answers that are more reasonable, sound and market standard, but at the end of the day, the business is worth what the seller and buyer can agree on. Deals that don't get done are very rarely because of a difference in business valuation between the parties - it's because of a difference in methodology of determining value.
And your scenario above is a great example of that.
The thing you have to consider in this specific case is that you're dealing with a small, main street or "solo-preneur" business. In those cases, to determine value, we look at global cash flow, or seller's discretionary earnings. SDE takes into account all of net profit, plus owner's personal expenses/benefits the business is paying for, and any owner's wages. Small businesses like this are valued on a multiple of SDE, and in the case of a coffee shop, a 2x multiple of SDE is reasonable.
The other key thing to consider about small business valuation is that businesses are valued based on their current operational metrics and financial structure. Meaning, if the owners are running the business full-time and have no employees, they are going to value it like the next owner will do the same thing. They are not going to value it based on the way a new owner "might" run it.
Of course, buyers are going to evaluate a business based on how they will run it, which is what you're doing here - saying that you would likely not owner-operate the business, and using the net profit the previous owners generated to pay employees. That's certainly your prerogative as the new owner, but it doesn't change the value of the business from the seller's perspective.
This is what I mean by deals dying based on methodology rather than value - you and the seller may both be using the same multiple of SDE to determine value, but you are defining SDE differently.
if I was selling this business for the current owners, I would have weeded you out before you ever signed the NDA to look at it - you are not the right buyer. The right buyer for this business is someone that is going to operate it in the same manner, or maybe someone with big growth plans for the business and is willing to pay what the sellers want even though they are going to run it differently.
jeremy@northstar-mergers.com
214.442.6706