A couple of very reliable indicators suggest that a recession is ahead. The 3 yr vs 10 yr note is inverted. The last seven times that occurred, it was followed by a recession.

Also when the unemployment rate approaches a cyclical low, it's historically been followed by a recession.

evestor1 said:

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Philip J Fry said:

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I'm sure it depends on the area. If I had mine fully rented for the month, it would be $7500, but that never happens. That's also consistent with the price of the hotels in the area, but you get the whole house to yourself. Try sleeping 9 for 250 a night anywhere else. For family vacations, it's the only way to go.

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vacay rentals are definitely the only way to go with more than 2 people.


The misc fees such as cleaning / extra people etc need to be included in the day rate. VRBO is only hurting itself by listing it all out separately...it upsets people and they try to go around it by direct contact to owner, etc.

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Yeah, like the Airbnb fees (which are absurdly high) and cleaning fees (which can be stupidly high but is variable) often make the daily rate 50% higher than the posted rate you initially see, before any taxes are added in. You don't know how high the actual rate is until you go to check out. Flat out ridiculous and why shorter stays at places makes no sense. Longer stays, though are a bit more reasonable, especially since many listings give a sizable break if booking is for over a month. There's definitely a line based on days stayed where Airbnb goes from being stupidly over priced to actually being worth it. That said, I only use these for extended work trips over a month now (tax deductible anyway), and very rarely for personal use anymore. It seems like the fees make it more expensive than it used to be, and it's just not worth it for shorter stays anymore. It has nothing to do with the economy or my financial situation (which has always been good, but is actually now getting better), but with how much higher it costs for what you get because of the fees. The rates to the property owners are usually reasonable, so it's not even on them.

And by "we," you mean the media, which is, well, we all know who is behind that.

I think its starting already. Some areas (like Texas/Florida) will be last in / first out, but seeing a slow down in real estate loans for development, etc. and other signs as stated here already.

And now Biden and dems can blame the Republican controlled House for everything. See post yesterday on Politics board as it already started by the POTUS PS.

The consensus from CEOs, economists, and other business trade groups is that we will have a shallow recession, if we have one. One survey in the last day or so shows that their belief in the likelihood of a recession has lessened.

I guess they have been successful in fully memory holing the traditional definition of recession at this point because there is zero talk outside of Joe America message boards that we were already in one / had one.

Lot of folks predicting or stating we are/will be in recession are not offering any impactful data to back up that opinion. Everyone likes to use the negative two GDP reports but if you look at the actual definition it is much more inclusive of other data especially job creation or loss and personal income. Here is a good overview

https://www.forbes.com/sites/qai/2022/09/22/when-will-this-officially-be-called-a-recession/amp/

The only concerning data right now is housing. But we are not seeing a collapse just a cool down. That could change of course. Just about all other data, as I posted on the thread, are positive.

It's a good point. The only thing that really concerns me is that the average American is now (way) behind on credit card bills, everybody seems to drive a luxury auto or full size SUV, and people have burned through their cash. Not representative of the greater TexAgs population, just your average American.

I guess everybody is fine with no cash and not paying CC bills as long as they have a good job. How this translates to a recession, I have no idea.

The NBER was created lover 100 years ago

https://www.nber.org/about-nber/history

So it's not new or recently designated as the authority for recession. It's just an organization that does not get regular headlines.

LMCane said:

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man VRBO is expensive as @#$@#$

at least when I compare with Airbnb for properties in Israel.

I can find some condos for $5000 a month on Airbnb, but the cheapest with beach view or in Tel Aviv was like $20,000 a month on VRBO

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that's because Airbnb doesn't list the $15,000 cleaning fee in the sticker price /s

Back in Oct/Nov (I think), Schwab's CIO/market strategist suggested we may be in a "rolling recession". She may have said so earlier, but that is the first I recall seeing it. While I have known of NBER and their role for 20+ years, that was the first time I recall hearing the concept of a rolling recession.

Now with GDP still still showing broad healthy level of growth, reported at 2.9% in Q4, broad employment still pretty strong, and millions more job openings than norm, there is plenty of evidence we are not in a classic recession at the moment. However, there are clearly segments of the economy that are struggling, and there seems to be increasing credence to the view point of being in a rolling recession where the problems of the economy are passed from a sector or 2 at a time, around the economy.

You cannot be a near full-employment and also be in a recession. The two are mutually exclusive.

Headed for one? Very likely

And GDP busts out at 2.9% growth for the fourth quarter. May not hold up but that is what we have now.

Ag92NGranbury said:

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i still think it is coming...

lots of excess money still being burned up which continues to drive inflation

starting to see job losses... AND people being forced back to the office. (i got flamed on another thread where i said that companies would eventually bring employees back... and it is starting to happen)

fed will be forced to bring down inflation first than worry about unemployment

the fed is still stuck in a hard spot and it would be tough to print money again by congress given the size of the debt... increases now will affect inflation

never underestimate the cost of interest to industries that use significant leverage including private equity

tide is about to go out... and we will see who isn't wearing a swimsuit

as always... i hope i'm wrong :-)

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You did not get flamed. You were flaming others.

My company still has made no changes to our WFH policy and hasn't laid off staff, yet

Bizarro Jerry said:

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You cannot be a near full-employment and also be in a recession. The two are mutually exclusive.

Headed for one? Very likely

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We're probably going to be at or near full employment for the rest of this decade as the biggest generation retires and the smallest one backfills them. We're facing a growing worker shortage that was an estimated 400k last year and will approach 1M by 2030. It's going to take a much larger than "normal" round of layoffs to overcome the deficit noted above before we see movement in the unemployment rate.

Does that mean no recession for the rest of this decade? Genuine question.

I just let my management company take care of it, but I couldn't afford to rent my own home if I didn't own it. There are just so many middle men in this process it's insane. 30% for the management company. $200 for cleaning. $100 if we need plowing service. A fee for pets and finally a fee if you want to use the hottub. But overall, it's still worth it on my end. Even after I posted this, we finally got a January rental for a week. This one week covers my mortgage payment.

Ghost of Bisbee said:

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Ag92NGranbury said:

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i still think it is coming...

lots of excess money still being burned up which continues to drive inflation

starting to see job losses... AND people being forced back to the office. (i got flamed on another thread where i said that companies would eventually bring employees back... and it is starting to happen)

fed will be forced to bring down inflation first than worry about unemployment

the fed is still stuck in a hard spot and it would be tough to print money again by congress given the size of the debt... increases now will affect inflation

never underestimate the cost of interest to industries that use significant leverage including private equity

tide is about to go out... and we will see who isn't wearing a swimsuit

as always... i hope i'm wrong :-)

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You did not get flamed. You were flaming others.

My company still has made no changes to our WFH policy and hasn't laid off staff, yet

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read the news, brutha...

WFH is getting serious claw back...

The original argument was about 4 day workweeks vs 5 day workweeks

Ghost of Bisbee said:

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The original argument was about 4 day workweeks vs 5 day workweeks

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Either way... we are on the initial stages of a collapse... watch & learn young grasshopper

Wanna bet?

SteveBott said:

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Wanna bet?

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I already am... financially speaking

OP...



IYKYK

So are stocks trading on fundamentals again and not QE now that the Fed is done with that business ?

JP_Losman said:

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So are stocks trading on fundamentals again and not QE now that the Fed is done with that business ?

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No one can possibly know that.

I would find the transactions per minute and $/transaction data very interesting.

I bet they have some very interesting accounting numbers.

GoAgs92 said:

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My 401k is only down a scant $250k….times are fantastic. Who wants to retire anyhow?

Economy is doing great.

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what are you complaining about?!?!


clearly you are in the top 1% of the country stealing from the poor anyway.

if you lost that much you are a millionaire to begin with.

you should be paying more in taxes you leech of society!

(sarc tag)

YouBet said:

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JP_Losman said:

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So are stocks trading on fundamentals again and not QE now that the Fed is done with that business ?

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No one can possibly know that.

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IMO, most of the money thrown in the economy since covid has made it into the marketplace or markets, which caused the inflation, housing boom, crypto and stock runup of the last few years. I think that's leveled off just about now and things will get a bit more back to normal. But some of that extra money in the market still COULD get pulled out; driving things down. The question is will everyone do that?

Win At Life said:

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YouBet said:

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JP_Losman said:

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So are stocks trading on fundamentals again and not QE now that the Fed is done with that business ?

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No one can possibly know that.

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IMO, most of the money thrown in the economy since covid has made it into the marketplace or markets, which caused the inflation, housing boom, crypto and stock runup of the last few years. I think that's leveled off just about now and things will get a bit more back to normal. But some of that extra money in the market still COULD get pulled out; driving things down. The question is will everyone do that?

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Much to my chagrin (and depending on what day you are asking me), I never got out. I still question every day if I have the right risk profile. We are taking ours down a level but the consensus is that back half of 2023 is going to be pretty nice. I won't believe that until I see it.

Where I'm mad at myself is that most of my investing in 2022 was first half of year and not much happening last half of year. So from that regard I bought at the 2022 top and on the way down. Most of that is simply bad luck as 401ks and IRA contributions are generally maxed in 1H for us.

But I realized this the other day in reviewing the year that I didn't buy much at the low point of 2H22 simply because my investment contribution annual goals were mostly early.

I need to rethink that in volatile years but I don't like trying to time the market.

Right now I'm putting new money into broad market bonds in my 401K.

If the market falls meaningfully lower I'll move that $ into the S&P. If it does not fall, bond prices are down 10% since last January anyway.