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When is recession coming?

10,918 Views | 68 Replies | Last: 1 yr ago by jamey
Gabster43213
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I thought stocks were supposed to be tanking this month.
Philip J Fry
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AG
Is this an f16 post in disguise?
Picard
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AG
How's your grocery bill?

not hedge
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It's already here
Philip J Fry
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AG
A few things:

1) I own a vacation rental in the mountains. Last winter was great and we more than broke even. This year, we haven't had a single renter yet this month.

2) Look at the housing market. It's crashing as we speak.

3) Look at your grocery bill. Heck, look at the shelves at the grocery store. From what I can see, people are dialing back eating out and buying more groceries to cut back on costs.

4) After this gap fill, i believe we are going to start another 20% leg downward. Please come back when that happens. I assume you're a Biden voter trying to convince us that last year's -20% SP500 return was a great thing.
Heineken-Ashi
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Economy is no longer getting worse for the time being. It's stabilizing at bad.

If you think that's a good thing, by all means, go long SPX.
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX

“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
Bonfire97
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AG
Jbob04
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Trolling [ON] OFF
$30,000 Millionaire
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This is just so stupid. On every level.
Cyp0111
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The mountain and or/high end beach rentai market was way overheated, I imagine you see a significant correction in the commoditized offering in that space.

Vacation rentals always first to go.

I think the Fed has greatly slowed investment in base industry and housing stock. It's doing the job there and you're seeing inflation slow and turnover in some areas. The print is trailing on rental markets which are also cooling rapidly and will as additional stock hits the market over next year.

I personally think the VRBO market greatly lost it's value proposition and cost inflation on that side has to come back in to get more bookings. If not, i'll wait for people to fold.
SteveBott
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There is zero chance any poster can accurately answer the OP question. One could guess correctly like a stopped watch being right twice a day.

The economy created 225k jobs in December. That is healthy numbers. Most economists think 100-125k new jobs is breakeven. The latest CPI report shows inflation is slowing but still too high. And you will always get spikes based on supply issues. See eggs and bird flu. Or lumber last year.

The housing market is making a mild correction so far. If you had 40% plus value appreciation the last two years and this year lose 7-10% of that are you losing? Or just your gains were trimmed?

GDP came in positive in the third quarter and expected to do so again for the fourth. At this time the data does not support eminent recession. If those data points change then reevaluate
MS08
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Informative insight into the vacation/mountain rental. Hope you all can continue to enjoy it! Sorry things slowed
Philip J Fry
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Agreed. We were lucky enough to get in while interest rates and housing prices were still low(ish) and I have about a year of expenses in savings in case we somehow don't get any rentals all year. Of course, I'm keeping a thumb on the market to see if there are any incredible deals as a result of this that we should scoop up.
JohnLA762
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Ag92NGranbury
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i still think it is coming...

lots of excess money still being burned up which continues to drive inflation

starting to see job losses... AND people being forced back to the office. (i got flamed on another thread where i said that companies would eventually bring employees back... and it is starting to happen)

fed will be forced to bring down inflation first than worry about unemployment

the fed is still stuck in a hard spot and it would be tough to print money again by congress given the size of the debt... increases now will affect inflation

never underestimate the cost of interest to industries that use significant leverage including private equity

tide is about to go out... and we will see who isn't wearing a swimsuit

as always... i hope i'm wrong :-)
MS08
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AG
Stop printing money and giving it to people who don't contribute to society, moreover, giving it to people who are not technically part of OUR society.
Z3phyr
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Next Thursday
AggieMainland
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Easy solution. Tax the rich more.
Cyp0111
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I think there is still a pathway for a mild recession. A lot will be determined by the Fed and if we can get full snap back in supply chains.

I still see the large underinvestment in energy as a inflationary item but seeing considerable rent deceleration which will start to flow through this spring.

The fed is in a tricky spot but this is all their doing but letting things run too hot in 21.
SMM48
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Mild recession.

Unemployment will go up.

Rate hikes are beginning to take hold.

Still way too much money flowing to tech/disc/comm.

Equal weighted s&p should outperform market cap weight s&p.

Edit and bonds are providing yields that we haven't seen in a decade+.

Philip J Fry
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If we don't have a recession, won't it be the first time we have not had one after a prolonged 10year/3 month treasury inversion?

Damage is being done. It takes time for it to ripple through the rest of the economy.
YouBet
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AggieMainland said:

Easy solution. Tax the rich more.
Better solution: tax the 60% of the population that pay nothing and have no skin in the game.
techno-ag
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JohnLA762 said:




$30,000 Millionaire
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AggieMainland said:

Easy solution. Tax the rich more.


Even more stupid than the OP.
LOYAL AG
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The Chinese economy is collapsing which is going to simultaneously cause a consumer recession with supply disruptions of the crap China makes and also a commercial explosion as manufacturing is forced to reshore production in North America. Timing? Don't know that's not really a game I care to play but it is coming. Not sure there's another outcome even possible.
A fearful society is a compliant society. That's why Democrats and criminals prefer their victims to be unarmed. Gun Control is not about guns, it's about control.
bam02
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So OP didn't actually care to discuss this topic? What a loser.
rilloaggie
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bam02 said:

So OP didn't actually care to discuss this topic? What a loser.


OP starts tons of threads and rarely engages beyond that. Weird poster.

Wonder if they made 50% on any of these suggesting

https://texags.com/forums/57/topics/3328418/replies/63237159#63237159
LMCane
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Cyp0111 said:

The mountain and or/high end beach rentai market was way overheated, I imagine you see a significant correction in the commoditized offering in that space.

Vacation rentals always first to go.

I think the Fed has greatly slowed investment in base industry and housing stock. It's doing the job there and you're seeing inflation slow and turnover in some areas. The print is trailing on rental markets which are also cooling rapidly and will as additional stock hits the market over next year.

I personally think the VRBO market greatly lost it's value proposition and cost inflation on that side has to come back in to get more bookings. If not, i'll wait for people to fold.

man VRBO is expensive as @#$@#$

at least when I compare with Airbnb for properties in Israel.

I can find some condos for $5000 a month on Airbnb, but the cheapest with beach view or in Tel Aviv was like $20,000 a month on VRBO
Philip J Fry
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AG
I'm sure it depends on the area. If I had mine fully rented for the month, it would be $7500, but that never happens. That's also consistent with the price of the hotels in the area, but you get the whole house to yourself. Try sleeping 9 for 250 a night anywhere else. For family vacations, it's the only way to go.
evestor1
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Philip J Fry said:

I'm sure it depends on the area. If I had mine fully rented for the month, it would be $7500, but that never happens. That's also consistent with the price of the hotels in the area, but you get the whole house to yourself. Try sleeping 9 for 250 a night anywhere else. For family vacations, it's the only way to go.
vacay rentals are definitely the only way to go with more than 2 people.


The misc fees such as cleaning / extra people etc need to be included in the day rate. VRBO is only hurting itself by listing it all out separately...it upsets people and they try to go around it by direct contact to owner, etc.
$30,000 Millionaire
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rilloaggie said:

bam02 said:

So OP didn't actually care to discuss this topic? What a loser.


OP starts tons of threads and rarely engages beyond that. Weird poster.

Wonder if they made 50% on any of these suggesting

https://texags.com/forums/57/topics/3328418/replies/63237159#63237159


Look at LABU.
fullback44
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bam02 said:

So OP didn't actually care to discuss this topic? What a loser.


Hot Take …. Turn the OP off w perma BAN ! I just turned him off after reading this post .. OP is major troll so I won't read his post anymore

As far as recession.. it been in affect ever since they killed the housing market .. when they did that the economy started is downward spiral .. we have been in it for a while .. media wants to protect FJB so they aren't talking about it
GoAgs92
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It's all good news lately…

100k tech workers laid off
Inverted yield curve
Good job numbers sure to be adjusted downward later
Every single option in my 401k except cash down last year

Things are great.
$30,000 Millionaire
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We are already in one.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
The Lost
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SteveBott said:

There is zero chance any poster can accurately answer the OP question. One could guess correctly like a stopped watch being right twice a day.

The economy created 225k jobs in December. That is healthy numbers. Most economists think 100-125k new jobs is breakeven. The latest CPI report shows inflation is slowing but still too high. And you will always get spikes based on supply issues. See eggs and bird flu. Or lumber last year.

The housing market is making a mild correction so far. If you had 40% plus value appreciation the last two years and this year lose 7-10% of that are you losing? Or just your gains were trimmed?

GDP came in positive in the third quarter and expected to do so again for the fourth. At this time the data does not support eminent recession. If those data points change then reevaluate


Yeah, because we keep changing the defintion of recession
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