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9,809 Views | 97 Replies | Last: 1 yr ago by Petrino1
Ghost of Bisbee
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Who all is in this bucket that doesn't own a home?

Every day that passes I get more depressed about the housing market. Needs to be a crash soon, otherwise I don't know why I just won't continue to rent.

At some point the market will stop paying these ridiculous prices for homes.

Inflation blows
evestor1
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Ghost of Bizbee said:



At some point the market will stop paying these ridiculous prices for homes.




Read this to yourself in 5 years and see how far it gets you. Starter /reasonable homes rarely lose value like you are hoping.

If you are in the middle and upper market (500k and beyond) ... yes those will fluctuate.
FrioAg 00
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Underlying home prices drive rent rates too. You think the capitalist that owns the asset you lease isn't seeking a return above cost?


Now if your saying that you'll consume at a lower level (like an apartment inside a complex) due to your perception of overvaluation in housing - that could be a winning strategy.

Most people's personal life (family with kids) make that pretty impractical
CC09LawAg
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Out of curiosity, where do you live/where are you hoping to buy? Starter homes where I'm at seem to stay relatively affordable. But I don't live anywhere super cool or hip.
ORAggieFan
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evestor1 said:

Ghost of Bizbee said:



At some point the market will stop paying these ridiculous prices for homes.




If you are in the middle and upper market (500k and beyond) ... yes those will fluctuate.



Hahaha. I can tell you don't live where I do.
Petrino1
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Im in my mid 30's, single, and dont own a home. I travel a lot and owning a home just sounds like too much work (I know this makes me sound like a typical millennial lol). I would rather rent pretty cheap and be able to save/invest a lot in my taxable account, which is what Ive done for the past 10+ years or so.

I think if/when I get married, thats when I will buy a home. But I dont think it makes sense for me to buy a home as a single guy. Plus, I dont want to buy a home in the suburbs as a single guy either.
Charismatic Megafauna
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We're in a bubble for sure but that doesn't mean you can't still find value if you are diligent and flexible. If you're in Houston come buy the cheapest house in westbury and get a roommate. Follow the old adage "cheapest house in the best neighborhood" and just do it. A basketcase on a busy road can probably be had for close to dirt value, and if the location is good (not willis or sealy) there is almost 0 chance you won't get your money back in a couple years, especially considering what you collected/would have paid in rent. Buying a home is still one of the most surefire ways for a young person to build wealth in this country, you just might have to work a little harder at it right now

Edit to add: a basketcase will eat you alive if you don't have interest and ability (and/or ability to learn) to do medium sized house projects, and/or experience being your own gc. The really big stuff (roof, hvac, underslab plumbing) can be replaced as part of the transaction
Ghost of Bisbee
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CC09LawAg said:

Out of curiosity, where do you live/where are you hoping to buy? Starter homes where I'm at seem to stay relatively affordable. But I don't live anywhere super cool or hip.


I'm in an apartment in CA.

Will likely buy outside Seattle at some point in the next 5 years.
CC09LawAg
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Yea, I will never be able to understand real estate there.

Best of luck!
Diggity
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So your advice is to buy a lot value house on a busy street in Westbury and ask the seller to pay for repairing/replacing all the major structural and mechanical items prior to close?

Sounds like a slam dunk to me.
$30,000 Millionaire
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I wouldn't buy in either of those markets right now.

In Seattle, you'd have to pay $700K to live in a dump in Federal Way. In the Bay Area, you'd have to live 100 miles inland.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Charismatic Megafauna
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10k for one of those items would have broken me within a couple years of buying my first house. Roll it into the sale through escrow or whatever. Seller doesn't care about anything but the net. Scrapes not really happening here yet, id be real surprised if this was much more than the dirt is worth or will be in 5 years https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/10803-Chimney-Rock-Rd-Houston-TX-77096/28008700_zpid/
(Extreme example, i wouldn't love on chimney rock, but i would have when i was 25)
Charismatic Megafauna
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Yeah you couldn't pay me enough to move to bay area. I know because my wife had an offer a couple years ago and we did the math, and the number she would have needed was outrageous
utah, get me two
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Yep, sucks op. Lotta people I know lucked out with their homes and interest rates. I'm more savvy than the average millennial when it comes to finances and have stacked away a good amount but even the cheap houses I can't afford. That being said I don't see Texas home prices going down with all the millionaire out of staters moving in
AgsMyDude
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Diggity said:

So your advice is to buy a lot value house on a busy street in Westbury and ask the seller to pay for repairing/replacing all the major structural and mechanical items prior to close?

Sounds like a slam dunk to me.


Yeah good luck. Sellers ain't paying for **** in this market.
CC09LawAg
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utah, get me two said:

lucked out with their homes and interest rates


Im not sure that's how it works…
riverrataggie
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There are plenty of homes in your price range.
utah, get me two
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The interest rates have been stupid low, they're now going up. They lucked out getting it in that time frame
CC09LawAg
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Gotcha.

I guess I'm looking at it from the perspective of someone who saw what was likely coming and pulled the trigger to lock in a low rate. My wife and I knew we would be in the market soon so we did what we could to pull the trigger when we did rather than miss the boat. I don't consider it "luck" per se. Just a matter of priority and geographical location.
Diggity
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Unless things have changed since I was more involved with RE, you're capped at 3% for seller contribution.

I agree with your idea of buying a cheap house in a decent neighborhood. Wouldn't pick a super busy road as it sucks to live on one and limits your upside.
ABATTBQ11
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CC09LawAg said:

utah, get me two said:

lucked out with their homes and interest rates


Im not sure that's how it works…


It kind of is. It's hard to find a great house in a low interest market because they go quickly. You have to be lucky enough to find out it's on the market much less put it an offer and get it. You can buy any house in a hot market, but getting a house you really like takes some luck.
Ghost of Bisbee
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Charismatic Megafauna said:

Yeah you couldn't pay me enough to move to bay area. I know because my wife had an offer a couple years ago and we did the math, and the number she would have needed was outrageous


Can't make the math work if you're buying a home unless both spouses are in high earning IB or VC jobs.

We're renting though are doing decently well here. Not being able to buy a home sucks though. The value just isn't there. I don't even think the value is there in Texas either
Motis B Totis
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I bought a crappy house in a meh neighborhood at the lowest point-2011. I still live there, have a tiny mortgage, no other debt. The key is living life for your own true enjoyment, not to impress others.
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Pepper Brooks
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ABATTBQ11 said:

CC09LawAg said:

utah, get me two said:

lucked out with their homes and interest rates


Im not sure that's how it works…


It kind of is. It's hard to find a great house in a low interest market because they go quickly. You have to be lucky enough to find out it's on the market much less put it an offer and get it. You can buy any house in a hot market, but getting a house you really like takes some luck.


We found our dream house in the 2.75% rate environment last year and it was 100% luck.
RockOn
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Motis B Totis said:

I bought a crappy house in a meh neighborhood at the lowest point-2011. I still live there, have a tiny mortgage, no other debt. The key is living life for your own true enjoyment, not to impress others.
Same - millennial and bought in 2012 when houses were sitting on the market for months. The mortgage is just about paid off at this point.
Red Pear Luke (BCS)
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Motis B Totis said:

I bought a crappy house in a meh neighborhood at the lowest point-2011. I still live there, have a tiny mortgage, no other debt. The key is living life for your own true enjoyment, not to impress others.


I think Save Ramsey says it best in "live like no one else today so you can live like no one else tomorrow". Not yaying or naying any of his other stuff but I think there's merit to trying to live below, I just wish I started maxing out the retirement accounts sooner.
Charismatic Megafauna
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Red Pear DFW Luke said:

Save Ramsey

Lol
Petrino1
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Charismatic Megafauna said:

Buying a home is still one of the most surefire ways for a young person to build wealth in this country, you just might have to work a little harder at it right now
But its not the only way for a young person to build wealth. I have a pretty nice stock investment portfolio for being in my mid-30's, and thats because I have been able to rent for cheap, and sock a ton away in my investment accounts. I think Im wealthier due to the fact that Ive been able to rent for cheap, as opposed to buying a house and having most of my net worth tied into it.
The Pilot
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I'm surprised you can find cheap rent somewhere that you can't find an affordable home. Our rent in Denver was only slightly cheaper than our mortgage.
Petrino1
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The Pilot said:

I'm surprised you can find cheap rent somewhere that you can't find an affordable home. Our rent in Denver was only slightly cheaper than our mortgage.
I pay $1050 a month for a nice apartment inside the loop in Houston. I wouldn't be able to find a similar price point for a home mortgage inside the loop in Houston lol.
Pepper Brooks
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It depends on the loan amount. Reallocate a portion of your investment money towards saving for a down payment and it may be possible.

We bought our first house 6 years ago for 300-350k and our P&I was roughly $1,200 with 20% down.

We sold last year for $100-150k more than we bought it for and bought a bigger place. We rolled the equity in, our monthly only went up $350, and we got 1500 more ft2. There are obviously tax/insurance/upkeep considerations not factored in here but I think your thought process has a few holes.
Charismatic Megafauna
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I didn't say it was the only way.
But show me another investment a young person can get 4x leverage on with no credentials other than a job and their good name
LMCane
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Ghost of Bizbee said:

Who all is in this bucket that doesn't own a home?

Every day that passes I get more depressed about the housing market. Needs to be a crash soon, otherwise I don't know why I just won't continue to rent.

At some point the market will stop paying these ridiculous prices for homes.

Inflation blows

even if the prices come down a bit- you will still be paying higher than normal interest rates so your monthly and total payments are not going to be much lower.

other than 2009- home prices (in locations people want to live) really do not drop a significant amount.
mts6175
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You will never buy a house if you are trying to time the market. Millions of homebuyers can provide evidence of that. Buy what you can afford now, upgrade in the future.
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