I figured with inflation and the end of the world upon us that bitcoin would be doing well. Why is it sucking so bad right now and is it worth buying?
Educate me on bitcoins fall
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Last: 1 yr ago by Pepper Brooks
It's sucking demonstrates the market psychology, the masses, the majority, of the Bitcoin holders see it as a speculative asset and despite what they say about its value, they behave in a manner that indicates they would rather own USD. So, their faith still lies in USD.
Probably has nothing to do with Luna and Blackrock.
Adverse Event said:
Probably has nothing to do with Luna and Blackrock.
Just shows the whole thing is a bubble, a house of cards. Just waiting for one event to spook and scatter the whole school of fish.
bmks270 said:
It's sucking demonstrates the market psychology, the masses, the majority, of the Bitcoin holders see it as a speculative asset and despite what they say about its value, they behave in a manner that indicates they would rather own USD. So, their faith still lies in USD.
Bingo
Has anyone had anyone explain a crypto currency to them in less than 2 sentences ?
For most owners its a security, so its mirroring stock trends right now. It's a digital currency sure, but prolly less than 1% of owners actually transact in btc for goods and services. When the currency is more widely accepted (think point of sale terminals) and respected the volatility will level out.
As long as large governments keep massively effing over their fragile economies for short term political points, the case for decentralized currency grows stronger.
As long as large governments keep massively effing over their fragile economies for short term political points, the case for decentralized currency grows stronger.
What's to explain? Can't speak to all the 10,000-plus active cryptocurrencies out there, but all-in-all they are charms of no redeeming value.Cyp0111 said:
Has anyone had anyone explain a crypto currency to them in less than 2 sentences ?
Cyp0111 said:
Has anyone had anyone explain a crypto currency to them in less than 2 sentences ?
Check Crypto Casey. She has a bunch of really good videos that do offer some concise info for beginners. She also seems to have a very good understand of markets and market drivers in general and it reflects in some of her longer videos.
You can find her content on YouTube, audio only on your podcast platform of choice, and I think a host of other socials.
https://youtube.com/c/CryptoCasey
Crypto is highly speculative junk that's significantly fueled by stimmies and margin
Stimmies are now gone and margin is now expensive
To make matters worse, the margin calls are forcing liquidation of crypto further adding to the decline
There's only so many fools that Matt Damon can sell to before everyone rushes to get out first
As Warren Buffett eloquently put it, Crypto is rat poison and a lesson on the mass delusional greed of crowds
Stimmies are now gone and margin is now expensive
To make matters worse, the margin calls are forcing liquidation of crypto further adding to the decline
There's only so many fools that Matt Damon can sell to before everyone rushes to get out first
As Warren Buffett eloquently put it, Crypto is rat poison and a lesson on the mass delusional greed of crowds
To answer the OP, it's been tracking the equities markets fairly closely in this "down only" market controlled by the Fed. Plus, the spectacular blow up of Luna/UST (which was always a bad idea and going to blow up sooner or later) has added more downward pressure. Is it worth it to buy, IMHO, yes. I can't tell you what the price will be in the short term, but I do have confidence that it will be much higher over the long term.
Not tulips. Not rat poison. Just different and some people don't get it yet.
Lots of good resources here from a person much smarter than I, or probably anyone else on this thread:
www.hope.com
Not tulips. Not rat poison. Just different and some people don't get it yet.
Lots of good resources here from a person much smarter than I, or probably anyone else on this thread:
www.hope.com
Oh yea, and as some on this thread are trying to conflate, Bitcoin is not the same a "crypto".
To be clear (for any tards in the chat): Bitcoin only.
I'm not a beginner in investing etc. I've just yet to hear a clear fundamental case for Crypto from anyone. The tangent always goes off topic to justify the value.
Crypto and NFTs in my opinion were the first and most tangible sign that the economy at the time had significant excess liquidity.
Crypto and NFTs in my opinion were the first and most tangible sign that the economy at the time had significant excess liquidity.
Fall? I believe it's the best performing major asset over the past two years
Yesterday said:
I figured with inflation and the end of the world upon us that bitcoin would be doing well. Why is it sucking so bad right now and is it worth buying?
Your "end of the world " statement is an important part of the bitcoin mindset.
My buddy is a serious prepper. Invests heavily each month in bitcoin, ammo, and physical gold each month. He went deep into the paint during the blm riots.
Has a big greenhouse and works it each year.
Of all of his investments, I personally like btc the least. We have seen the feds interest in it, and they have shown their ability to crack wallets on occasion. Doesn't make the news cycle as much and is generally dismissed as user error.
My opinion is that when real pain comes to the market, btc will have a greater downside and steeper decline. I also believe that governments will get better at tracking it through secondary measures and will want to keep it around as a matter of stealth surveillance.
Most people who buy bitcoin aren't crackpots like your buddy, so it's really not part of the mindset at all. The privacy aspect has fallen by the wayside as well. They also haven't shown any ability at all to "crack" private wallets.
Just so much misunderstanding.
Just so much misunderstanding.
I'm still curious what the true value is. i know it has a relative opex to produce but outside of that. It seems like a rather speculative play which would explain all the pumpers adn excess surrounding it.
Scarcity, utility, and decentralization. These things have value to some people, an no value to others.Cyp0111 said:
I'm still curious what the true value is. i know it has a relative opex to produce but outside of that. It seems like a rather speculative play which would explain all the pumpers adn excess surrounding it.
Bitcoin cannot be seized by a government or regulatory entity. What is the value of that? Nothing to some and a lot to others.
Also provides me the opportunity to buy cheap and sell high
its actually more like buying a long put option on MMT. except there is no theta.Mas89 said:
What is a Bitcoin anyway? Anybody have a real one? I miss administrative errors posting. To me it's kind of like buying a high priced stock that has never had any earnings. Like wtf.
So the value is completely intrinsic above the cost to produce.
Yep
what is the true value of being able to monetize wasted energy? or of being able to teleport billions of dollars in value anywhere on earth for less than $1 without permission or involvement from any third party? or of a pre-defined and unalterable monetary policy protected by the most secure network that has ever existed?Cyp0111 said:
I'm still curious what the true value is. i know it has a relative opex to produce but outside of that. It seems like a rather speculative play which would explain all the pumpers adn excess surrounding it.
efficient market theory would posit that a global TAM and 24/7 liquidity means the true value is updated every minute of every day. although i think you could definitely argue that most people do not have all the information about what bitcoin is or why its important.
TxAG#2011 said:Scarcity, utility, and decentralization. These things have value to some people, an no value to others.Cyp0111 said:
I'm still curious what the true value is. i know it has a relative opex to produce but outside of that. It seems like a rather speculative play which would explain all the pumpers adn excess surrounding it.
Bitcoin cannot be seized by a government or regulatory entity. What is the value of that? Nothing to some and a lot to others.
Also provides me the opportunity to buy cheap and sell high
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/04/irs-has-seized-1point2-billion-worth-of-cryptocurrency-this-year-.html
Quote:
The IRS has seized $1.2 billion worth of cryptocurrency this fiscal year here's what happens to it
I'm admittedly a novice to all of this. Your statement and that headline seem to clash. Could you please explain what I'm missing?
Again, it's intrinsic (which is fine) but the value seems to be rather discretionary to the one holding. It's a pump game imo. It doesnt produce any tangible value outside of the above mentioned items.
Based on my understanding...Cyp0111 said:
I'm still curious what the true value is. i know it has a relative opex to produce but outside of that. It seems like a rather speculative play which would explain all the pumpers adn excess surrounding it.
It's less about the crypto. It's less about BTC, ETH, USDC, or whatever. It's less about the NFT of your choosing. It's more about the underlying blockchain technology and where computing is heading. If you believe that there will be increasing need for or increasing utilization of the block chain then there will be increased demand for an utilization for one or more of the cryptocurrencies.
That doesn't even account for where the gaming world is going and I still haven't even begun to try wrapping my head around the "metaverse" (not the FB version).
The technology is getting pretty awesome in terms of what is required for a virtual currency to become dominant. The best case for it is that any government will have a much much hard time manipulating it or even tracking it.
However, it's still a group psychology trial. Currency has value because people universally believe in its value - they ability to trade it for goods and services.
For any new currency to stabilize - there is a tipping point of people that need to believe in it strongly enough to trade for it. Bitcoin (or any other crypto) has not achieved that tipping point.
It's not a given that it ever will, but if it does you can expect the value to be much much higher than it currently is. That's why this is a speculative bet for those invested in it.
There is also a very real chance that the speculative bubble bursts before it gets to that point, it's current valuation melts down and the scaring of its current holders pretty much dooms it.
In the end it's all or nothing IMO, and my guess is that the game plays out in the next 5 years. Betting on BTC is a lotto ticket at this point - high upside, but high probability of 100% loss.
Similar to buying far out of the money call options.
However, it's still a group psychology trial. Currency has value because people universally believe in its value - they ability to trade it for goods and services.
For any new currency to stabilize - there is a tipping point of people that need to believe in it strongly enough to trade for it. Bitcoin (or any other crypto) has not achieved that tipping point.
It's not a given that it ever will, but if it does you can expect the value to be much much higher than it currently is. That's why this is a speculative bet for those invested in it.
There is also a very real chance that the speculative bubble bursts before it gets to that point, it's current valuation melts down and the scaring of its current holders pretty much dooms it.
In the end it's all or nothing IMO, and my guess is that the game plays out in the next 5 years. Betting on BTC is a lotto ticket at this point - high upside, but high probability of 100% loss.
Similar to buying far out of the money call options.
When the feds "seize" crypto they are seizing the physical access to the wallets. They aren't hacking the wallet. They aren't Ocean's Elevening their way into the safe. They sure as hell aren't brute forcing a password.AggieBaseball06 said:TxAG#2011 said:Scarcity, utility, and decentralization. These things have value to some people, an no value to others.Cyp0111 said:
I'm still curious what the true value is. i know it has a relative opex to produce but outside of that. It seems like a rather speculative play which would explain all the pumpers adn excess surrounding it.
Bitcoin cannot be seized by a government or regulatory entity. What is the value of that? Nothing to some and a lot to others.
Also provides me the opportunity to buy cheap and sell high
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/04/irs-has-seized-1point2-billion-worth-of-cryptocurrency-this-year-.htmlQuote:
The IRS has seized $1.2 billion worth of cryptocurrency this fiscal year here's what happens to it
I'm admittedly a novice to all of this. Your statement and that headline seem to clash. Could you please explain what I'm missing?
This is Crypto that is stored in what's known as "Hot Storage" or a "Software Wallet." This would be more loosely analogous to your money in an account over at Wells Fargo. So the Feds take over control of hte access to those deposited funds. In the case of the Silk Road takedown, the Feds took control of the entire operation. Imagine the Feds suddenly having 100% control over, again, Wells Fargo. It' snot about the cash in the vaults, its about the records stored on the computers. The accounting ledgers.
Now "Cold Storage" or "Hardware Wallets"... This is Crypto, more importantly encryption keys stored on a physical device that is on your person, or in a location that is known to you. People can even go so far to store these encryption keys on metal plates or wooden blocks, etc. As silly as that sounds you need to link that encryption key to an account to gain access. IE, that encryption key is the password, but without the account/user name it's useless. The Feds CANNOT crack these. Upcoming quantum computing might be able to take a stab at it, but the tech is not there yet.
you haven't heard of the Blockchain?!Cyp0111 said:
I'm not a beginner in investing etc. I've just yet to hear a clear fundamental case for Crypto from anyone. The tangent always goes off topic to justify the value.
Crypto and NFTs in my opinion were the first and most tangible sign that the economy at the time had significant excess liquidity.
the metaverse?
ac04 said:what is the true value of being able to monetize wasted energy? or of being able to teleport billions of dollars in value anywhere on earth for less than $1 without permission or involvement from any third party? or of a pre-defined and unalterable monetary policy protected by the most secure network that has ever existed?Cyp0111 said:
I'm still curious what the true value is. i know it has a relative opex to produce but outside of that. It seems like a rather speculative play which would explain all the pumpers adn excess surrounding it.
efficient market theory would posit that a global TAM and 24/7 liquidity means the true value is updated every minute of every day. although i think you could definitely argue that most people do not have all the information about what bitcoin is or why its important.
We may eventually learn that the value of those things is only $10 per Bitcoin. Nobody really knows, it's just a bunch of speculation. Big banks can also implement their own blockchains for transferring funds, they don't absolutely need Bitcoin for anything, banks can exist without Bitcoin. And so is it's volatile pricing. Bitcoins primary use case today is simply to be traded as a currency with other currencies just because.
I don't think anyone at this point really cares what banks need, don't need, or can implement themselves.bmks270 said:ac04 said:what is the true value of being able to monetize wasted energy? or of being able to teleport billions of dollars in value anywhere on earth for less than $1 without permission or involvement from any third party? or of a pre-defined and unalterable monetary policy protected by the most secure network that has ever existed?Cyp0111 said:
I'm still curious what the true value is. i know it has a relative opex to produce but outside of that. It seems like a rather speculative play which would explain all the pumpers adn excess surrounding it.
efficient market theory would posit that a global TAM and 24/7 liquidity means the true value is updated every minute of every day. although i think you could definitely argue that most people do not have all the information about what bitcoin is or why its important.
We may eventually learn that the value of those things is only $10 per Bitcoin. Nobody really knows, it's just a bunch of speculation. Big banks can also implement their own blockchains for transferring funds, they don't absolutely need Bitcoin for anything, banks can exist without Bitcoin. And so is it's volatile pricing. Bitcoins primary use case today is simply to be traded as a currency with other currencies just because.
It's completely irrelevant to Bitcoin.