With inflation and a looming recession, do you move to cash or keep dollar cost averaging in?
How do you protect your 401k/long-term investments during these times?
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Last: 1 yr ago by LMCane
DCA
In hindsight, I should have moved to cash this past January. My value has dropped so much I would lose money by going to cash now. I am still contributing, so my cost average is getting lower. I am just going to ride it out.
I also did this from September 2007 until March 2009. The market dropped continually during this time frame. When the market finally found the bottom in March 2009, it was an amazing ride back up.
I also did this from September 2007 until March 2009. The market dropped continually during this time frame. When the market finally found the bottom in March 2009, it was an amazing ride back up.
Buy or hold for the long term.
Sell now and you lose money.
Sell now and you lose money.
Now is the time to get your contribution up to the maximum allowed.
Are you retiring in the next few years or do you know where the bottom is?
I played around with getting in and out some since January but I'm not up big as a result of this action. I think my YTD is about 5% better than a coworker who just road it out.
I currently have about 20% of my 401K funds that are still out. I'm just gonna go all in probably at some point, 70/30 split between large cap/small and medium cap fund
I have about 5% of my total 401K in a self managed account that has basically been an expensive lesson in the stock market. I have about 40% of that still in cash snd will probably just go all in on QQQ and XBI with what's left when I think we're near thr bottom. The rest in in XBI, SOFI and a little in FUBO. I plan to let this all just sit for years if necessary
I currently have about 20% of my 401K funds that are still out. I'm just gonna go all in probably at some point, 70/30 split between large cap/small and medium cap fund
I have about 5% of my total 401K in a self managed account that has basically been an expensive lesson in the stock market. I have about 40% of that still in cash snd will probably just go all in on QQQ and XBI with what's left when I think we're near thr bottom. The rest in in XBI, SOFI and a little in FUBO. I plan to let this all just sit for years if necessary
If you're not contributing the max, do so now. If you're in bonds, switch now. The stock market has never gone down and stayed there.
buy now while you can average down, stuff is going on clearance sale. Those are always the times I look back on and wish I would have bought more. BTW, i am curious too see what kind of near term fear selling we get when folks see their April statements
Put it all in S&P funds and ignore it.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
VTI or VOO
Although I am almost all cash in my brokerage accounts right now we have never touched our retirement/deferred comp accounts, even through 2000/2008/2020. If you are under, say 55, there is no reason to worry, just keep contributing what you can.
This, it's too late to make a move. This is buying season, not selling season.aggieband 83 said:
In hindsight, I should have moved to cash this past January. My value has dropped so much I would lose money by going to cash now. I am still contributing, so my cost average is getting lower. I am just going to ride it out.
I also did this from September 2007 until March 2009. The market dropped continually during this time frame. When the market finally found the bottom in March 2009, it was an amazing ride back up.
Wait. People still try to time the market??
XXXVII said:
With inflation and a looming recession, do you move to cash or keep dollar cost averaging in?
My choices are guarantee a loss equal to inflation or keep doing something that historically beats inflation by ~6/7% in the long run.
TikkaShooter said:
Wait. People still try to time the market??
If you've taken money out as the market falls, isn't any time better even if you miss the bottom by a mile
The result is still better than riding it out no matter how bad you miss the bottom
Yes, if you get back in at the right time as well.
Yeah it works perfectly as long as you always get out at the right time and then back in at the right time. Easy!
MAS444 said:
Yeah it works perfectly as long as you always get out at the right time and then back in at the right time. Easy!
It works as long as you get back in at a lower price.
The only way it doesnt work is if you get out and you get back in higher.
The timing doesn't have to be anything close to perfect to help
jamey said:MAS444 said:
Yeah it works perfectly as long as you always get out at the right time and then back in at the right time. Easy!
It works as long as you get back in at a lower price.
The only way it doesnt work is if you get out and you get back in higher.
The timing doesn't have to be anything close to perfect to help
Good luck with the active timing over the course of a long investing career.
https://engaging-data.com/market-timing-game/
Yeah sounds so easy in theory…
This is a fun little model. Nice share!
All you have to do is buy low and sell high.
It's really not that hard.
It's really not that hard.
To late to go into cash. That would of been ideal in hindsight 4 months ago. Just stick to plan and buy into growth mutual funds. As you get closer to retirement increase allocation to safer assets.
TikkaShooter said:
Wait. People still try to time the market??
Isn't this what traders are doing every day, basically?
AggieDruggist89 said:TikkaShooter said:
Wait. People still try to time the market??
Isn't this what traders are doing every day, basically?
Yes. And a very, very small percentage can actually do it successfully.
JDCAG (NOT Colin) said:AggieDruggist89 said:TikkaShooter said:
Wait. People still try to time the market??
Isn't this what traders are doing every day, basically?
Yes. And a very, very small percentage can actually do it successfully.
So then the answer is Yes people still try to time the market.
Point taken.
I keep a closer eye on my current allocation and rebalance if necessary. I was doing it quarterly, but have been checking every two weeks this year.
AggieDruggist89 said:JDCAG (NOT Colin) said:AggieDruggist89 said:TikkaShooter said:
Wait. People still try to time the market??
Isn't this what traders are doing every day, basically?
Yes. And a very, very small percentage can actually do it successfully.
So then the answer is Yes people still try to time the market.
I don't really look at it as timing the market If its something like the fed is going to announce rate hikes and tapering or covid. So maybe it's a move you only make 1 or 2 times a decade
It's a staple response on this forum to poke fun at the concept of timing the market when the entire "stock market" thread is about "timing" the market. I guess it bothers them that some people actually time the market successfully.
So go figure.
So go figure.
Seems like we need a more clear definition of what timing the market means.
What exactly does everyone mean you shouldn't do when they say don't time the market.
What exactly does everyone mean you shouldn't do when they say don't time the market.
Ride it out
There is a massive difference between trading and investing. That's the first disconnect with this discussion.
Gigem314
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