Official Countdown to US Recession thread

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www.zerohedge.com

"moments ago the BEA reported that in Q1, the US economy and GDP in fact shrank by 1.4%,

shocking consensus estimates of a 1.0% GDP print (to be fair, a few Wall Street analysts did predict a negative print but the consensus was by and large for continued growth)."

for a recession you need two quarters of negative GDP growth, and turns out we are in negative growth right now.

which no one in the government has acknowledged could possibly be happening.

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Outdoorag011 said:

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What an absolute joke our economy is. We can't do anything unless uncle Jerome is by our side printing the USD into oblivion keeping markets afloat.

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the problem is that now what does the Fed do?

raise rates into a recession?!

lower rates to try to stimulate the economy when rates are already ZIRP?

more stimulus with massive inflation still raging?!

Finally, The Fed's favorite inflation rate - the PCE Deflator -

rose by 6.6% Year over Year (slightly less than the 6.7% YoY expected) but still the highest since Jan 1982

(while the core PCE deflator fell back very modestly from multi-decade highs).

In a related subject, I read a newspaper article that said the deficit is lower this year and the debt will decrease in the next quarter. Covid spending resulted in a huge deficit last year. I think we spent about 6 trillion in Covid relief. There is no way we could sustain that level of spending, but a deficit will not decrease the level of debt. In order to decrease debt, we have to have a surplus. It seems like people fail to understand the difference between debt and deficit.

Maybe debt will decrease slightly for one quarter because Q2 usually records a bunch of tax payments?

unemployment ticks up today

Worker output fell 7.5% in the first quarter, the biggest decline since 1947

US Gas Prices Soar As Europe And Asia Scramble For LNG

MONDAY, MAY 09, 2022 - 08:06 AM By John Kemp, Senior Market Analyst at Reuters

U.S. gas prices have surged to the highest level in real terms since the financial crisis in 2008 as strong demand for LNG from buyers in Europe and Asia puts pressure on inventories.

Front-month futures for gas delivered to Henry Hub in Louisiana are trading at almost $9 per million British thermal units, up from just over $3 at the same point last year and less than $3 in 2019.

Diesel in Frederick Maryland this weekend: $6.37 at Costco

WAWA
Regular $4.40
Midgrade $4.82
Premium $4.93
Diesel $6.00

I think the last time I bought gasoline was pre-russia invasion.

Outdoorag011 said:

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What an absolute joke our economy is. We can't do anything unless uncle Jerome is by our side printing the USD into oblivion keeping markets afloat.

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Yep, I've avidly lurked on this board for a long time and many posters have been warning about this day for the last decade.

Easy money, QE, low rates, everyone thought the party would last forever.

Well now it's all going wrong for the Fed and there's nowhere to run. The day of reckoning has arrived.

"Economists" don't know ***** With energy prices as high as they are, and services still sky high while wages start to trail...we are all feeling the squeeze more than ever.


House sales will continue to plummet. The entire industry is going to contract a little.

People have already reached a breaking point of "what can I live without" or "how can I save money".

This is starting to trickle into the system. Supply limits, high prices, waning demand. The ball is rolling now.