Because I am so ready!
AM I THE ONLY ONE WAITING FOR A MAJOR MARKET AND REAL ESTATE CRASH?
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150 Replies |
Last: 1 yr ago by Harkrider 93
Yes, just you.
I wouldn't hold your breath on real estate crashing.
You and me both. I don't often make calls on economic happenings but this one is a sure bet. I've just been hanging out watching my Laserdiscs and feeding Emus until it goes down.
Please tell me you don't have a bunch cash waiting for a big dip…. Inflation/market gains lost will kill that cash.
Until the clown show stops giving lazy people money and building bridges to nowhere it won't happen. Taper and raise rates ASAP
Unneeded stimulus --> Inflation --> Fed has to raise rates quicker --> Economic Recession
I'm loaded for bear.... just not sure when the bear will appear... 2023?
I'm loaded for bear.... just not sure when the bear will appear... 2023?
Some signs of market shift in San Jose CA area....hamean02 said:
I wouldn't hold your breath on real estate crashing.
Imagine an economy with $1 and 1 stock share worth $1. If I fire up the printing press and add a second dollar, my share price is now worth $2. It doesn't mean the company is doing better, it just means the price has to now reflect the inflated currency.
This is why in an inflationary environment waiting for a crash is probably a bad plan.
This is why in an inflationary environment waiting for a crash is probably a bad plan.
Is bunch of cash frowned upon now...Outdoorag011 said:
Please tell me you don't have a bunch cash waiting for a big dip…. Inflation/market gains lost will kill that cash.
AggieDruggist89 said:Some signs of market shift in San Jose CA area....hamean02 said:
I wouldn't hold your breath on real estate crashing.
Am I missing an inside joke here or?
AggieDruggist89 said:Is bunch of cash frowned upon now...Outdoorag011 said:
Please tell me you don't have a bunch cash waiting for a big dip…. Inflation/market gains lost will kill that cash.
It is when it's worth a significant percentage less every year you've been sitting on it. Once the crash happens, that cash could be worth 98% of what it is now, or it could be worth 80%, or significantly less. But it's not gonna be worth what it is now.
I remember when I moved to SF in 2011. Real estate shot up dramatically year over year. One of my doctors was waiting to buy until after the next correction. Since then the real estate she was looking at has gone up 200-300% at a minimum. Covid made it go down about 5-10% from highs, and now it's stabilized again and going back up. Time to buy? Good thing she waited, eh?
The only real estate crash coming are in the bluest of areas in blue states with a blue Governor and a blue attorney general.
If you aren't buying in that area, you aren't thinking correctly.
If you aren't buying in that area, you aren't thinking correctly.
Oh I don't know about 300%. I bought in Northern Cal in 2012, rockbottom and since the property value has little more than doubled... So little above 100%? My bro in law bought in SF and his property doubled since 2013... So that's 100%.
Recently there was a record # of new listings, highest in 15 years in SF and the price is flat and or some are lowering the price. Most properties in SF I believe doubled since the crash during the past 10 years.
300% increase means a million dollar house 10 years ago is now 4 million today. What city is this?
Recently there was a record # of new listings, highest in 15 years in SF and the price is flat and or some are lowering the price. Most properties in SF I believe doubled since the crash during the past 10 years.
300% increase means a million dollar house 10 years ago is now 4 million today. What city is this?
My properties in Huntsville, AL purchased between 2016-2020 have tripled in value. Some of this is forced appreciation, a lot was savvy market selection, and then a lot more dumb luck in a wild market. Cap rates from 10-12 to now 5%. Crazy.
Contrary to Bonfire1996's advice, the Los Angeles portfolio is also going to the moon, albeit with annual returns merely in the 20s.
Contrary to Bonfire1996's advice, the Los Angeles portfolio is also going to the moon, albeit with annual returns merely in the 20s.
Malibu2 said:
My properties in Huntsville, AL purchased between 2016-2020 have tripled in value. Some of this is forced appreciation, a lot was savvy market selection, and then a lot more dumb luck in a wild market. Cap rates from 10-12 to now 5%. Crazy.
Contrary to Bonfire1996's advice, the Los Angeles portfolio is also going to the moon, albeit with annual returns merely in the 20s.
Oh that was you guys?
You dirty dogs.
We're buying in Birmingham at this very moment to take us to 1,200 local units. Couldn't be more excited.
AggieDruggist89 said:
Oh I don't know about 300%. I bought in Northern Cal in 2012, rockbottom and since the property value has little more than doubled... So little above 100%? My bro in law bought in SF and his property doubled since 2013... So that's 100%.
Recently there was a record # of new listings, highest in 15 years in SF and the price is flat and or some are lowering the price. Most properties in SF I believe doubled since the crash during the past 10 years.
300% increase means a million dollar house 10 years ago is now 4 million today. What city is this?
Yep, San Francisco. But as you're familiar with SF, I'm sure you're also aware that the different areas (districts) are completely different from eachother. Some areas, like the outer sunset, are more "affordable" compared to more expensive areas, and have gone up at completely different (meaning larger) rates than the more appealing areas that were already stupidly expensive. So some areas have gone up only 50% (I don't think anything has only gone up 50% in San Francisco proper in the past ten years but I could be wrong, I'm confident that 100% is pretty much the minimum appreciation citywide at the peak) while others have tripled or quadrupled in 10 years. There were houses in the outer sunset that were 500-600k back then that are over 2 million now, absolutely. Or at least before the covid dip. But everything has gone up significant amounts. Also, this same scenario applies all over the Bay Area, as you're aware of. I remember back in 2012 or so, parts of east bay went up 100% in 1 year. 1 freaking year. I was watching it, waiting until I saved enough for a down payment to invest, but it doubled before I could make a move. Ten years later, I'm curious where it's at now. But I wouldn't be surprised if it's doubled again, or more.
So yes, I appreciate your snarky response, but the "cheaper" areas have absolutely tripled, and some areas quadrupled.
My condo in the middle of the city has taken a dip in the last year, probably 5-10% (I'm about to sell, since I don't live there anymore), but it's gone up quite nicely even after the relatively insignificant dip. The only thing that would bring SF property values down to where you think they will get would be a major earthquake.
Regardless, my commercial property has gone up 300% as well since 2011, as well as multi family properties in the area. Sorry to tell you, but this might be the peak, or you could be waiting for the inevitable 10% dip after it goes up another 50%. Or it could drop 50% after an earthquake. Who knows?
Interest rates have to rise to get a crash and the fed won't let them rise.AggieDruggist89 said:
Because I am so ready!
Once the fed loses control of interest rates is when the **** hits the fan
The world needs mean tweets
My Pronouns Ultra and MAGA
Trump 2024
My Pronouns Ultra and MAGA
Trump 2024
I'm sure there are always anecdotes and exceptions. SURE Las Vegas condos that crashed to $25k are now $200k. But overall, the last decade appreciation in the Bay Area has been about 100%.
Maybe. But I do think there are regional variances.
Southeast real estate I believe is still hot. But look at Boise. Yes the average pricing has peaked in August but they're seeing price declines along with many listings lowering price in addition to almost 100% increase in the # of listings compared to last year.
Southeast real estate I believe is still hot. But look at Boise. Yes the average pricing has peaked in August but they're seeing price declines along with many listings lowering price in addition to almost 100% increase in the # of listings compared to last year.
I have come to the conclusion that there will never be a crash. Their game is to keep printing money and inflating the currency so they can pay back debt in cheaper dollars. We are all going to be paying $10 for a loaf of bread like Mexico. These fed A-holes know exactly what they are doing. Biden is just carrying this on. This started under Obama in 2008 and went on steroids under Trump in late 2019 when the fed started the injections prior to Covid. We are just now on an exponential curve. I'd like for someone to post facts proving me wrong.
The next crash is cash.
Bonfire97 said:
I have come to the conclusion that there will never be a crash. Their game is to keep printing money and inflating the currency so they can pay back debt in cheaper dollars. We are all going to be paying $10 for a loaf of bread like Mexico. These fed A-holes know exactly what they are doing. Biden is just carrying this on. This started under Obama in 2008 and went on steroids under Trump in late 2019 when the fed started the injections prior to Covid. We are just now on an exponential curve. I'd like for someone to post facts proving me wrong.
It cannot go on forever. I think that is the OP's anticipation.
AggieDruggist89 said:
I'm sure there are always anecdotes and exceptions. SURE Las Vegas condos that crashed to $25k are now $200k. But overall, the last decade appreciation in the Bay Area has been about 100%.
Most of the Bay Area is closer to 200+%. School district is a huge variable as is price point - lower end has appreciated a lot. Bought my house in 2011, it's at least 3x what I paid. School district is best in San Jose, so that is a driver.
Yes, no doubt. SJ market has done well.
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LOL! Cash is king when mortgage interest rates rise and people that need to sell a home are looking for a buyer. If you aren't old enough to have owned a home from 78 to 85 and needed to sell, you will not know the example I am referencing. There is no wage inflation.Outdoorag011 said:
Please tell me you don't have a bunch cash waiting for a big dip…. Inflation/market gains lost will kill that cash.
If crypto ever gains utility and is accepted for goods, inflation will explode.
While theoretically true, Japan has proved it can go on much, MUCH longer than people think (ie. many decades at least)PearlJammin said:Bonfire97 said:
I have come to the conclusion that there will never be a crash. Their game is to keep printing money and inflating the currency so they can pay back debt in cheaper dollars. We are all going to be paying $10 for a loaf of bread like Mexico. These fed A-holes know exactly what they are doing. Biden is just carrying this on. This started under Obama in 2008 and went on steroids under Trump in late 2019 when the fed started the injections prior to Covid. We are just now on an exponential curve. I'd like for someone to post facts proving me wrong.
It cannot go on forever. I think that is the OP's anticipation.
Here is what is crashing …
Purchasing power
I feel bad for you young dudes trying to buy your first house. Awful times.
Purchasing power
I feel bad for you young dudes trying to buy your first house. Awful times.
Insert
"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent [ or alive]"
"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent [ or alive]"
Malibu2 said:
Imagine an economy with $1 and 1 stock share worth $1. If I fire up the printing press and add a second dollar, my share price is now worth $2. It doesn't mean the company is doing better, it just means the price has to now reflect the inflated currency.
This is why in an inflationary environment waiting for a crash is probably a bad plan.
To expand this a bit, that loaf of bread that used to cost a dollar now costs 2 dollars. So your stock really hasn't gone up any in comparative value, it just reflects the inflation. The bread, on the other hand, cost you more to eat.
In an inflationary economy, hold investments (house and stocks), not disposable items (car, food, and expensive clothes). And make sure your salary is increasing or you will really be left behind.
Malibu2 said:
My properties in Huntsville, AL purchased between 2016-2020 have tripled in value. Some of this is forced appreciation, a lot was savvy market selection, and then a lot more dumb luck in a wild market. Cap rates from 10-12 to now 5%. Crazy.
Contrary to Bonfire1996's advice, the Los Angeles portfolio is also going to the moon, albeit with annual returns merely in the 20s.
That Alabama market lagged way behind for years, though. I bought a house in 2004 for $155k. Was on the market for 6+ months before I got an offer. Sold it in early 2011 for $179,900. Nice house too - all brick, 4 beds, 2k sq ft on a 1/2 acre lot. It was a builder spec home, but he was a small local builder, so it was nicer than the DR Horton and other mega-builder starter homes.
I think the woman who bought it from me wound up in financial trouble. It was on and off the market several times between 2014 and 2017 for as low as $158k and never sold. It was listed again and finally sold in 2019 for $192k. So, it took 15 years to appreciate 25% in value. It was night and day different when I moved to TX and saw the market here.
I'm sure the market there now is nuts.
For the poster that said "the crash is in cash" (or similar words)
I just watched a guy pay $19M for a ranch in desert part of Wyoming that can hold 550 head. This has to be a bubble.
Deplorable Neanderthal Clinger