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Can we talk about hyperinflation?

6,848 Views | 68 Replies | Last: 2 yr ago by mwp02ag
Baby Billy
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7:02p, 10/26/21
AG
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In reply to Baby Billy • 7:09p, 10/26/21
No collapse in production?

Weird.
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Max Stonetrail
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In reply to administrative errors • 10:45p, 10/26/21
No collapse in production, not even remotely. The US Industrial Production Index is right about the same level as leading up to March 2020. The PMI is higher than it has been in 5 years, even through the economic expansion during Trump's administration.

I personally would say while I agree we have "excess money printing", it isn't on the order of magnitude relative to debt and GDP that would fulfill that side of the hyperinflation equation either.

I would be interested to know what economic indicator leads you to believe there is a collapse in production?

I know you just want hyperinflation and economic collapse so you and your bitcoin buddies can claim victory over the skeptics. If it makes an difference, while I don't own bitcoin, I opted to hold MSTR as a proxy for half of my safety cash position. I am not a skeptic, but I am certainly not a worshipper or believe bitcoin is the silver bullet to insulate me from economic disaster. That's called food, water, shelter and ammo.
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In reply to Max Stonetrail • 3:12a, 10/27/21
I'm just looking at global supply chain logistics, shortages of steel in Mexico preventing fridges from being manufactured is the latest.

Shortages in freezers. Shortages in fridges, delays in everything related to building homes because of supply logistics issues, from labor at manufacturer, to labor at assembly factories to labor at drivers, to labor at warehouses, to labor at docks...

How can you not have a production shortage when components to produce aren't showing up in time?

Most of my perspective is based on the housing/home markets as that my business. It is skewed thus.
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In reply to Max Stonetrail • 3:15a, 10/27/21
And just to clarify. I don't want hyperinflation anymore than the next. If it happens top quickly we are in for a ****ing rough time as a people.

What I want is for the normies who don't think about anything outside of what they are told to start thinking outside of what they're told. Otherwise nothing will change fast enough at the masses to adapt to reality and prevent massive disaster.

For 7 years I've been helping my local community folk step into bitcoin, mostly because I fear what would possibly happen when the USD goes kaput.
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ABATTBQ11
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In reply to administrative errors • 9:54a, 10/27/21
AG
Unrelated, but Dorsey is full of **** on censorship. His company, under his leadership, ****ing led it. Twitter is one of the worst out three, and jack had no problem with it as long as he thinks it's wrongthink. Dorsey will not hesitate to continue censorship and narrative shagging through shadow bans and suppressing or promoting whatever fits his desired narrative.
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In reply to ABATTBQ11 • 10:16a, 10/27/21
Agreed on censorship. But part of being a publicly traded entity at this point in the 4th turning.


One thing he has publicly stated is his urgency on decentralizing Twitter as he doesn't want nor does anyone deserve that level of authority.

I take those words like I take politician promises, but at least he's making them, and very publicly.
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YouBet
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In reply to administrative errors • 11:23a, 10/27/21
AG
administrative errors said:
Agreed on censorship. But part of being a publicly traded entity at this point in the 4th turning.


One thing he has publicly stated is his urgency on decentralizing Twitter as he doesn't want nor does anyone deserve that level of authority.

I take those words like I take politician promises, but at least he's making them, and very publicly.
Has he proposed how he would do that?
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In reply to YouBet • 11:31a, 10/27/21
YouBet said:
administrative errors said:
Agreed on censorship. But part of being a publicly traded entity at this point in the 4th turning.


One thing he has publicly stated is his urgency on decentralizing Twitter as he doesn't want nor does anyone deserve that level of authority.

I take those words like I take politician promises, but at least he's making them, and very publicly.
Has he proposed how he would do that?

https://www.digitaltrends.com/social-media/jack-dorsey-decentralizing-twitter-wont-solve-your-hate-speech-problems/
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In reply to administrative errors • 11:40a, 10/27/21
AG
administrative errors said:
YouBet said:
administrative errors said:
Agreed on censorship. But part of being a publicly traded entity at this point in the 4th turning.


One thing he has publicly stated is his urgency on decentralizing Twitter as he doesn't want nor does anyone deserve that level of authority.

I take those words like I take politician promises, but at least he's making them, and very publicly.
Has he proposed how he would do that?

https://www.digitaltrends.com/social-media/jack-dorsey-decentralizing-twitter-wont-solve-your-hate-speech-problems/
Thanks.

This seems to be a big hurdle to overcome for Twitter.

Quote:
And, he added, Twitter's very business model is contrary to the philosophy of decentralized protocols. "The problem with Twitter developing its own protocols is that they are for the most part a proprietary platform, and they have business interests that contradict user interests," he said. "There's advertising, algorithms for boosting engagement, all of which the completely open source Mastodon doesn't have. We don't want to manipulate people into looking at the site more."
And people worried about hate speech not being curtailed if they de-centralize....who cares. If it bothers you, then stay off the platform.
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Max Stonetrail
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In reply to administrative errors • 11:46a, 10/27/21
All of this amounts to government interference with the markets, via over regulation and Covid shutdowns on production and supply chain side, excess money printing and distribution on the price side.

Not to make this political, but your local community would be better off if you educated them on how to research election candidates with sound economic policy than amassing a pile of bitcoin. If we do have hyperinflation, it won't matter how much bitcoin they have, because at that point the amount of goods and services available to purchase (or that the government will actually let you purchase) will be so small it won't matter how many dollars, gold or even cryptocurrency of any flavor they have. The complete lack of supply is what drives prices to astronomical levels and triggers hyperinflation.
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Max Stonetrail
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In reply to administrative errors • 12:01p, 10/27/21
LOL. Dorsey is "put[ting] together a team to explore decentralizing Twitter". Sorry to be cynical, but that's like a politician "creating a task force to study x…." Nothing ever actually happens or gets changed.

When Congress calls Dorsey, Zuckerberg, Musk, Bezos, etc up for a hearing, it amounts to a bunch of Kabuki theater. Each sides gets some points, and the constituents and consumers on both sides get a little something. After the cameras are off and they are behind closed doors, those Senators and Representatives make sure those guys know that they better step in line or they will be regulated out of business.
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LMCane
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8:37a, 10/28/21
Can anyone explain why the yield curve going negative is a big deal?

And that VaR shock is now spreading to the US, where for the first time ever the yield on the 30Y UST is below the yield on the 20Y UST...
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Harkrider 93
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In reply to LMCane • 10:13a, 10/28/21
AG
LMCane said:
Can anyone explain why the yield curve going negative is a big deal?

And that VaR shock is now spreading to the US, where for the first time ever the yield on the 30Y UST is below the yield on the 20Y UST...
not sure if serious

people usually point to a negative yield curve to predict a stock market crash

my guess is VaR is used as loose as bubble and I wouldn't listen to that very often

I don't see the 30yr below the 20 currently, and more importantly, it wouldn't be the first time. It isn't that rare.
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In reply to Max Stonetrail • 11:17a, 10/28/21
Max Stonetrail said:
LOL. Dorsey is "put[ting] together a team to explore decentralizing Twitter". Sorry to be cynical, but that's like a politician "creating a task force to study x…." Nothing ever actually happens or gets changed.

When Congress calls Dorsey, Zuckerberg, Musk, Bezos, etc up for a hearing, it amounts to a bunch of Kabuki theater. Each sides gets some points, and the constituents and consumers on both sides get a little something. After the cameras are off and they are behind closed doors, those Senators and Representatives make sure those guys know that they better step in line or they will be regulated out of business.

https://bluesky-community.net/

Here's where they are at. The @bluesky team was launched in 2019. There's a community discussion board.

I just started looking at it so I don't know much.
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Ragoo
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11:48a, 10/28/21
AG
Wouldn't hyperinflation be BAD for tech and Bitcoin?

When scarcity for resources is up up up and the cost for those resources is also up wouldn't there be a fundamental shift in where consumers are able to put their dollars? I don't think tech focused anything would be near the top in competition for those dollars.

To add: tech has boomed the last decade not because tech was wanted or needed but because disposable income is very high.
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In reply to Ragoo • 11:58a, 10/28/21
Tech and bitcoin are deflationary forces.

Why was disposable income high?
Because goods and services were cheap relative to income? Why? [Steers questioning toward triffens dilemma answers]

Tech and tech stocks and bitcoin and crypto are all completely different and may perform wildly different in specific circumstances.
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Ragoo
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In reply to administrative errors • 12:00p, 10/28/21
AG
administrative errors said:
Tech and bitcoin are deflationary forces.

Why was disposable income high?
Because goods and services were cheap relative to income? Why? [Steers questioning toward triffens dilemma answers]

Tech and tech stocks and bitcoin and crypto are all completely different and may perform wildly different in specific circumstances.
what good is Bitcoin if you cannot pay your phone bill or gain access to an ISP because hyperinflation means you choose food over those luxuries?
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In reply to Ragoo • 2:18p, 10/28/21
You can't?

Are we in 2012?
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LMCane
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8:54a, 10/29/21
30 year high for inflation

Congratulations America! wages dropped last month (except for government employees) and inflation rose to the highest level in 30 years.

Building Back Better my friends!!
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Max Stonetrail
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In reply to administrative errors • 11:50a, 10/29/21
AE, I don't know if you are being intentionally obtuse or just trolling.

As you mentioned above, you are concerned about refrigerators and freezers because we can't get steel from Mexico. If we are in hyperinflation, nobody cares that they can't get that new top of the line appliance for their new house that is the correct height, depth and door configuration. Nobody even cares about any refrigerator or freezer because you don't have any food to store. Unless Bitcoin (or even dollars or gold) becomes an edible source of nutrition, it is for the most part useless as well, too. People are going to be bartering in useful goods and services, and any currency is secondary to survival.
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BudFox7
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9:55a, 10/30/21
BTC or other cryptos acceptance for goods will only exacerbate an inflationary environment, and it's own crash. Further, it's only trading one set of whales (Fed, politicians) for another set of whales who are likely no better.

Crypto will experience a nice crash in any hyper inflationary enviro or in a recession. As soon as people start -needing- the USD they have converted to crypto (which depends on the Fed), the bottom is only where the crypto whales won't sell. Only way to avoid that is if BTC or another crypto gains widespread acceptance before inflation or recession.

This time is different though, I'm sure. New paradigm and all that. 2020 is the only market history you need
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ramblin_ag02
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9:48a, 11/5/21
AG
Didn't know if I need to start a new thread, but I keep coming across historical examples of hyperinflation such as the Wiemar, Russia after the USSR and modern Venezuela. It seems in these situations that foreign currency is king. Anyone with access to Euros or US dollars in Venezuela now is doing fine.

So how do you build up a reserve of foreign currency/capital? Especially knowing that a flailing government is going to freeze accounts and nationalize banks? Also, would that even do any good if the US dollars crashed? Would there be any decent currency left standing?

I know all about the bitcoin hype, but I honestly haven't heard one account out of Venezeula where people talk about bitcoin helping anyone. And I've read dozens of accounts of people who live there.
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YouBet
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In reply to ramblin_ag02 • 11:26a, 11/5/21
AG
ramblin_ag02 said:
Didn't know if I need to start a new thread, but I keep coming across historical examples of hyperinflation such as the Wiemar, Russia after the USSR and modern Venezuela. It seems in these situations that foreign currency is king. Anyone with access to Euros or US dollars in Venezuela now is doing fine.

So how do you build up a reserve of foreign currency/capital? Especially knowing that a flailing government is going to freeze accounts and nationalize banks? Also, would that even do any good if the US dollars crashed? Would there be any decent currency left standing?

I know all about the bitcoin hype, but I honestly haven't heard one account out of Venezeula where people talk about bitcoin helping anyone. And I've read dozens of accounts of people who live there.
The crash of Venezuela happened long enough go that no one was really even talking about BTC yet. Venezuela has been a failed state for several years now. I think most people that survived it got into black market USD early on and saved themselves that way.
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In reply to ramblin_ag02 • 11:31a, 11/5/21
ramblin_ag02 said:
Didn't know if I need to start a new thread, but I keep coming across historical examples of hyperinflation such as the Wiemar, Russia after the USSR and modern Venezuela. It seems in these situations that foreign currency is king. Anyone with access to Euros or US dollars in Venezuela now is doing fine.

So how do you build up a reserve of foreign currency/capital? Especially knowing that a flailing government is going to freeze accounts and nationalize banks? Also, would that even do any good if the US dollars crashed? Would there be any decent currency left standing?

I know all about the bitcoin hype, but I honestly haven't heard one account out of Venezeula where people talk about bitcoin helping anyone. And I've read dozens of accounts of people who live there.

https://news.bitcoin.com/venezuela-bitcoin-use-hyperinflation-crypto-adoption/

Quote:
Venezuela's Bitcoin Use Soars Amid Hyperinflation: 3rd on Global Crypto Adoption Index

"Venezuela is suffering through one of the worst economic crises in modern history, with its national currency, the bolivar, becoming practically worthless," the firm wrote. "Under these circumstances, cryptocurrency has taken on an important role in Venezuela's economy … As the Venezuelan bolivar has lost value in the midst of hyperinflation, Venezuela has become one of the most active cryptocurrency trading countries on earth." The firm elaborated:

The country has reached one of the highest rates of cryptocurrency usage in the world, placing third on our Global Crypto Adoption Index, as many Venezuelans rely on cryptocurrency to receive remittances from abroad and preserve their savings against hyperinflation.

Most of the crypto activity in Venezuela is driven by peer-to-peer (P2P) exchange activity, specifically on Localbitcoins, Chainalysis noted. "Venezuela is the third-most active country on the platform, or second-most active when we scale by the number of internet users and purchasing power parity per capita. Venezuela ranks 3rd for P2P trading volume in USD, after the U.S. and Russia." Venezuelans are also using Bitcoin.com's P2P marketplace to buy and sell bitcoin cash.

...

An expert on Venezuela told the firm that "Criptolago's transaction activity suggests the platform may be used primarily by individuals connected to the Maduro regime seeking to launder funds or move them out of Venezuela." Nonetheless, Chainalysis affirmed:

We do however, have a lot of anecdotal evidence that people in Venezuela have become increasingly interested in cryptocurrency.

"That fits with our interviews of cryptocurrency experts on the ground in Latin America users not just in Venezuela, but in other countries facing harsh economic conditions, turn to cryptocurrency to preserve their savings in the face of monetary devaluation," the firm emphasized.


Headlines coming soon:
"Hackers steal all of Maduro regime Bitcoin slush funds"
"Hackers distribute stolen Maduro Bitcoin to Venezuelans"
"Hackers claim Maduro's password was 'PetrodollarIzKing69420' "

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YouBet
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In reply to administrative errors • 12:25p, 11/5/21
AG
Be curious what their usage looks like over a year later.
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Sully Dog
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In reply to Harkrider 93 • 5:58p, 11/5/21
Harkrider 93 said:
Next, we will listen to Mark Cuban on how to properly handle our politics with China.
As the CEO of Paypal, I think Dorsey knows a lot more about banking and economic and that idiot leftist Cuban. And I'm know Dorsey fan boi
Deplorable Neanderthal Clinger
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In reply to Sully Dog • 3:22a, 11/6/21
Sully Dog said:
Harkrider 93 said:
Next, we will listen to Mark Cuban on how to properly handle our politics with China.
As the CEO of Paypal, I think Dorsey knows a lot more about banking and economic and that idiot leftist Cuban. And I'm know Dorsey fan boi
61 posts and no one has mentioned that Dorsey is not actually the CEO of PayPal?
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LostInLA07
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In reply to HeightsAg • 5:02a, 11/6/21
AG
No I think Sully Dog is
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8:34a, 11/6/21
Square/cashable not PayPal.

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8:34a, 11/6/21
Square/cashable not PayPal.

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8:24a, 11/10/21
Inflation at highest in 31 years...

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Red Pear Luke (BCS)
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In reply to administrative errors • 8:26a, 11/10/21
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AG
administrative errors said:
Inflation at highest in 31 years...

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LMCane
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8:30a, 11/10/21
Breaking:

US Consumer prices soared 6.2% Year over Year in October,

far higher than the +5.9% YoY expected and accelerating from September's 5.4% YoY;

this is the highest print since June 1982.

www.zerohedge.com
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mwp02ag
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8:33a, 11/10/21
AG
Lolz. It's TrAnSiToRy, the fed totes has this under control. Class of 20 guy prolly.

"Tapering" ain't gonna control this *****
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