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Real estate prices in DFW and across Tx?

14,991 Views | 156 Replies | Last: 2 yr ago by Diggity
jamey
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I posted this on the real estate forum before realizing its a ghost town

I've been following prices on zillow lately for a few reasons....

Long story short prices jumped big, across the board like 10% in DFW?

Is this real or a zillow formula screw-up.


I've used zillow estimates before when house shopping and generally find them in thr ballpark.

I also found these articles, sorry no link since I didn't have a subscription...




Stive
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A report that came out last week stated that Metroplex home prices went up 12% in the first quarter alone this year and are expected to go up an additional 12% over the next 9 months. It's real if you've tried to find a house anywhere from San Antonio to Austin to Dallas to Tyler at any point during the last 9 months.

Factors are multiple: low interest rates, government incentives to buy, people and companies moving into Texas, people working from home, people moving to outlying areas because of working from home, building costs, etc.

It's full on bonkers out there right now.
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Decay
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Family member is in the process of selling their house. They got an offer last week 45k over list... They're in the low-mid 300's (don't remember exactly) but obviously are now in the mid-to-upper 300s. Buyer said they were tired of getting outbid. Next bid was about 30k over list.

10% sounds like a conservative estimate.
ac04
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horrid inflation is on the way and it's showing up in asset prices first. on top of that DFW is one of the hottest housing markets in the US at the moment. no way the number is actually 10%
jamey
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Just in time for property appraisals...yay
agchino
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property appraisals SHOULD be the value as of January 1st...
The Pilot
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Is this happening across the entire US? Just saw a report that here in Denver the average home price is getting near 700K. It's insane.
Stive
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The Pilot said:

Is this happening across the entire US? Just saw a report that here in Denver the average home price is getting near 700K. It's insane.

Not as bad all over. It's going up in a lot of places but Texas is the number 1 market right now.
mwp02ag
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We just decided today to sell our owner occupied tri-plex that we've operated with two short term rentals upstairs. Told my other investor agent buddy and he has two cash buyers ready to come look. They have 1031 money burning a hole in their pockets. Our last appraisal was $385k in 2018, we're expecting the offers to be in the low to mid $600 range.

We are sitting at an infinite return and doing over $50k gross revenue, it was a hard decision, but we both found peace in the decision. A depression, or worse, is coming here I'm afraid. God help us, I pray I am wrong.

In the mean time we are going to hit the road in the RV and work remotely. We are also buying a 4 unit property in a sleepy Mexico beach town for $95k cash that will cash flow about the same. This was already in the works before deciding to sell the house though.
jamey
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The Pilot said:

Is this happening across the entire US? Just saw a report that here in Denver the average home price is getting near 700K. It's insane.



I don't know about Denver but I've always thought about selling my DFW house and moving a little North to Little Elm, somewhere a little North of McKinney or even Ft Worth and pocket the difference


Looks like the difference was swallowed up by this latest price movement
TecRecAg
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Yes. You would have to go way north now. Gunter or beyond..
The Pilot
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Stive said:

The Pilot said:

Is this happening across the entire US? Just saw a report that here in Denver the average home price is getting near 700K. It's insane.

Not as bad all over. It's going up in a lot of places but Texas is the number 1 market right now.
It's nuts. We bought in Denver last year and the first house we submitted had 27 other offers, which went for 200K over initial asking (realtor thought it was underpriced). 2nd house went for 50K over. 3rd house we finally got for asking.
jamey
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agchino said:

property appraisals SHOULD be the value as of January 1st...



That's good but looking back at at value over time thst might just mean 10% property tax hike this year and another 10% next year.


I'm already near 10K per year in taxes on a 2500 Sq ft house
oldarmy1
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I bought an investment house for $349k 4 years ago. I put $40k into it and it sold 3 weeks ago for $700k.

I think your articles are too small of gains. It is pure insanity and I'm taking advantage on properties held for 3+ years.
agchino
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Unless the market goes up 10% 1st quarter and down 20% 4th quarter...
Stive
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To be fair, that's not the appraisal district's fault. Take it up with your local spending entities...they're the ones that set the budget and levy the taxes. The appraisal district just tells them how much each houses share of said taxes are this year.

(Now I'll duck and cover while people throw rocks)
Bird Poo
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Stive said:

A report that came out last week stated that Metroplex home prices went up 12% in the first quarter alone this year and are expected to go up an additional 12% over the next 9 months. It's real if you've tried to find a house anywhere from San Antonio to Austin to Dallas to Tyler at any point during the last 9 months.

Factors are multiple: low interest rates, government incentives to buy, people and companies moving into Texas, people working from home, people moving to outlying areas because of working from home, building costs, etc.

It's full on bonkers out there right now.
Can you share that report?
Stive
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They were reading it on the radio....sorry.
Pepper Brooks
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TecRecAg said:

Yes. You would have to go way north now. Gunter or beyond..


I've been very tempted to go build on the bridges golf course. Wife doesn't like that idea though.
Sandman98
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Monopoly money is getting thrown around Austin. If you only bid 10% over list you'll be dead last of 30+ offers on the first day. It doesn't even feel real down here.
Outdoorag011
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https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.insider.com/dc-home-76-all-cash-offers-sold-200000-over-asking-price-competitive-real-estate-market-2021-3%3famp


Prices are skyrocketing across the country! Texas seems to be the hottest market but dozens of major cities are seeing double digit increases in price. My mom is a realtor and she told me that if you aren't paying over asking price... you aren't even considered since so many people are paying 5-10% over asking with cash.
mwp02ag
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Tulips come to mind.
I bleed maroon
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Just some general commentary - -

% of asking price is a majorly flawed metric. It assumes that every property is priced using a perfect system of comps, appraisals, and true market value. In reality, you can ask whatever you want for a property - in prior "soft" markets, I have personally listed properties for 15-20% over what a realtor assured me was a "proper" listing price before (and got offers much closer to my price), and I have seen listings at well below market value to stimulate a bidding frenzy. It has become fashionable in the current market to use this as a metric (mostly promoted by realtors to get their clients to jump (too?) quickly on a property, IMHO). FOMO is a very real danger in the real estate market, just like the stock market.

That said, the market is overheated, and many of the factors have already been stated above. It WILL cool off, with the primary drivers being increased mortgage interest rates, supply chain improvements in building materials, reopening of the economy, etc. Texas real estate has lagged other regions for quite a while, IMHO, and some catch-up was inevitable, given how our economy is booming. This too will cool off (just wait till the new tax valuations catch up next year).

All I'm saying is don't let yourself get talked into overpaying due to emotions. A few days ago, I personally just bought a piece of raw land just outside Austin in a very "hot" area, and paid 4% less than asking price, for whatever that's worth.
Sandman98
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The supply is so short in Austin people have no choice but to overpay unless they want to overpay to rent a dump. Realtors here are encouraging people to make an offer so high they'll be embarrassed.

Cash and corporate buyers are squeezing out regular people. One example...

Dated home with broken pool in outer limits of Austin near Round Rock. Worth about 500k on 1/1/20. Appraised at 610k last week and buyer paid 825k covering the difference in cash. They'll need to spend 100k to bring it up to date.
mwp02ag
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We're seeing more and more listing stating they are paying less than 3% buyers agent commissions also.
TxAG#2011
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mwp02ag said:

We're seeing more and more listing stating they are paying less than 3% buyers agent commissions also.


They shouldn't be paying more than 3% period in this kind of market. What value is being generated here other than an MLS listing and document review.
Red Pear Realty
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Stive
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Anyone know what the approximate cost to build is right now in Tarrant county? Assume you don't use a contractor...
mavsfan4ever
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We offered well above asking price in Dallas and thought we'd have a good shot. We were 2nd. The winning offer waived the option period. So basically taking it as is I guess.

Is that a regular thing now? I've never heard of that and can't imagine doing it.
Medaggie
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Just heard avg home in Austin for Jan with Avg sale of 530K and $320/sqft. Not sure if this is correct but inventory almost nonexistent. The price changes in a year is mind boggling.

I bought a home one year ago sitting on the market for 3+ months priced at 398K, bought at 388K appraised for 390K. Put in 40K renovations. Just appraised at 650K and probably would sell for 750K.
ClassicAg18
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mavsfan4ever said:

We offered well above asking price in Dallas and thought we'd have a good shot. We were 2nd. The winning offer waived the option period. So basically taking it as is I guess.

Is that a regular thing now? I've never heard of that and can't imagine doing it.


Same thing happened to me and that was the offer that won as well. The sellers included in their disclosure a home inspection report from 2017 so I guess whoever won the deal was ok taking it as is. In my opinion, doing this is setting you up for failure and asking for trouble especially if you are buying an older home.
ClassicAg18
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Medaggie said:

Just heard avg home in Austin for Jan with Avg sale of 530K and $320/sqft. Not sure if this is correct but inventory almost nonexistent. The price changes in a year is mind boggling.

I bought a home sitting on the market for 3+ months priced at 398K, bought at 388K appraised for 390K. Put in 40K renovations. Just appraised at 650K and probably would sell for 750K.


This is asinine, how can this seriously continue? I fear the housing market is going to pop and it's going to be very ugly when it does
tailgatetimer10
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I'm about to sell. Pretty nervous to see how it turns out. I sure hope we have some of these option waivers y'all are talking about. That's insanity that I would not agree to. I guess agents are advising their clients to do it.
Sandman98
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tailgatetimer10 said:

I'm about to sell. Pretty nervous to see how it turns out. I sure hope we have some of these option waivers y'all are talking about. That's insanity that I would not agree to. I guess agents are advising their clients to do it.


It feels like you can't buy a house without waiving it. People are going to sell homes they normally wouldn't have before major fixes. It's about to get stupid.
 
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