That deep analysis of companies is an excellent way to get a 5% annualized return!

jagvocate said:

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At a PE ratio of 90, I don't know what buying TSLA is but it's hard to call it investing

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PE without knowing projected growth can be misleading.

A company that is growing 50% YOY with a PE of 100 is much better than a company with a PE of 25 and losing market share.

Tlsa 2021 EPS was about $5. 2022 Q1 was $2.86 which would project to full year of $11.44 with almost none coming from Giga Berlin or Texas.

Medaggie said:

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jagvocate said:

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At a PE ratio of 90, I don't know what buying TSLA is but it's hard to call it investing

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PE without knowing projected growth can be misleading.

A company that is growing 50% YOY with a PE of 100 is much better than a company with a PE of 25 and losing market share.

Tlsa 2021 EPS was about $5. 2022 Q1 was $2.86 which would project to full year of $11.44 with almost none coming from Giga Berlin or Texas.

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"Show me the money, not the graph" I hope any $TSLA lovers make all the money the care to on the stock, I just don't understand paying for it at these prices (it was recently worth virtually the same as *all* other car manufacturers -- I know $TSLA does more than cars, but still) I'll yield the floor to bulls and say good day

jagvocate said:

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Medaggie said:

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jagvocate said:

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At a PE ratio of 90, I don't know what buying TSLA is but it's hard to call it investing

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PE without knowing projected growth can be misleading.

A company that is growing 50% YOY with a PE of 100 is much better than a company with a PE of 25 and losing market share.

Tlsa 2021 EPS was about $5. 2022 Q1 was $2.86 which would project to full year of $11.44 with almost none coming from Giga Berlin or Texas.

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"Show me the money, not the graph" I hope any $TSLA lovers make all the money the care to on the stock, I just don't understand paying for it at these prices (it was recently worth virtually the same as *all* other car manufacturers -- I know $TSLA does more than cars, but still) I'll yield the floor to bulls and say good day

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And it was how many years ago when all other car manufacturers nearly went bankrupt and had to have a bailout. Those companies traditional bread and butter, the big suv/trucks or high dollar cars are under attack by state and federal epa rules. So if they fail to transition under a progressive regime they will fail.

Thats not to say I agree with tesla value but just that the idea isn't that unreasonable.

If you wait to see the money before you invest the money you're always going to get lower returns. Tesla is about growth, not present cash flows. The rest of those autos are shrinking. You have a company that has an annualized growth rate of 50% for the last 5 years against companies that are producing and selling fewer cars since before the pandemic (i.e. they cannot solely blame supply chains) and pretending like they're the same thing. "If you're not growing, you're dying."

You have a company whose margins are improving while growing, compared to companies that are stagnant or decreasing.

Tesla is growing faster, with better margins, better business diversity, and some technological irons in the fire that would make something like AWS look like it was small potatoes.

You're paying for growth. You're paying for the potential for radical societal transformations. It is not sure thing money, it is money that could decline (unlikely, in 3 more years of this growth Tesla's P/E will be comparable to Ford's at current prices, they already have the factories built to achieve that growth rate), stagnate (possible), or explode (possible).

How much downside are you willing to accept to get a possible 20x return over the next 15 years? I have certain portions of my portfolio where the answer to that is "a lot" and certain portions of my portfolio where the answer is "very little". The very little risk portion will allow me to retire comfortably with normal savings rates. The a lot portion would accelerate that retirement date possibility by 20 years, without adding another dollar to it.

15 years ago when Amazon was launching AWS people were saying the same thing. Tesla's auto business in a couple of years justifies their current price. Tesla's AI business could be dramatically more valuable than AWS.