evan_aggie said:

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ABATTBQ11 said:

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Good article on why sawmills aren't going to come online to meet demand.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/despite-lumber-boom-few-new-sawmills-coming-11621243982?mod=flipboard

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I can't read the full article but as the first part mentions: why run at full capacity when people will pay 2x the price for the same amount of work.

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Article also mentions that lumber companies will pay a bit of capex to renovate and streamline current facilities to make them more efficient but they are gonna stockpile cash with the inflated prices

aggieland09 said:

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I'm in commercial construction. Projects are kicking off and owners are paying the inflated lumber prices. Very few projects are on hold due to lumber prices. According to framing contractors I work with, who are booked out with projects, there is no end in sight until customers say no to projects. This is not happening. We're in a situation where projects have been planned and some on hold due to covid and now everyone is wanting to go full speed ahead. Lumber prices are likely here for good. Construction in central Texas is still booming with not many signs of slowing down.

This is my opinion and like to hear any others. I hope I'm wrong and prices go down but I'm not seeing it and framers have said the same.

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Similar at my firm - we are pricing developments slated to start next year with lumber at $1k - not expecting it to come down anytime soon.

article isn't about not running at capacity, it's about not spending hundreds of millions of dollars and multiple year lead time to build at the top of the cycle.

evan_aggie said:

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ABATTBQ11 said:

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Good article on why sawmills aren't going to come online to meet demand.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/despite-lumber-boom-few-new-sawmills-coming-11621243982?mod=flipboard

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I can't read the full article but as the first part mentions: why run at full capacity when people will pay 2x the price for the same amount of work.

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Copy link and paste into an incognito tab. Should be able to read it.

It basically says mill owners will invest in streamlining their existing facilities, but they're not going to invest capex at the top. They know they'll never see the return. At this point, they're content you just take the high prices and huge profits while putting away cash.

I dont think it will ever come down too much below 1000 but it has come off its high of 1700. Closed down just above 1400 which was down on the day.

Futures down to $774 for September. Any of you guys seeing this reflected in the cash price yet? I hear OSB and plywood are still insane. Any movement there yet? Hoping to get this house started soon!

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/30/lumber-prices-dive-more-than-40percent-in-june-biggest-monthly-drop-on-record.html

Link doesn't work.

My builder told us last week his supplier said he should start getting some "cheaper" material in about 2 weeks. They are about to start my slab so it's getting time for my lumber. Really curious how it'll be

tam2002 said:

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My builder told us last week his supplier said he should start getting some "cheaper" material in about 2 weeks. They are about to start my slab so it's getting time for my lumber. Really curious how it'll be

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Let us know. Im a few weeks behind you.

I'm in the same boat. 2x6's dropped $4 last week at our lumber yard. Our lumber estimate was during peak lumber prices so curious how much under we end up compared to our add on estimate.

Our lumber estimate was when it was $1000 per 1000 board sq/ft. Talking to our builder as lumber was going up our bid had rose 20k so we waited a month or two to hope it came down. Honestly I'll be happy if ours just goes back to the first bid but will be pleasantly surprised if we get it lower

Is it going back up again?

Champ Bailey said:

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Are sawmills similar to refineries in regards to facing a bunch of high environmental restrictions to build more?

Seems crazy that there is higher supply than ever, yet because of the choke point, we are paying these sky high prices.

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Welcome to agriculture. Price takers, not price makers. Growers buy at retail then sell at wholsale. Processors make the $$.

Bump for any insight into what people see in lumber prices these days? Layman google implies prices have come back down near pre-covid?

aTm_bomb said:

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Bump for any insight into what people see in lumber prices these days? Layman google implies prices have come back down near pre-covid?

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I can't speak to futures, but as a consumer they have pretty well stabilized for a while, especially for common items. More like pre-Covid levels plus inflation.

A 2x4 8' stud used to be $2.75 and is now $3.75. A 4x8 sheet of 7/16 OSB used to be $8 and is now $11.

Some of the less common sizes seem to be higher and a little volatile, but have come down and are more available. For example, a 2x12 16' douglas fir board was probably $25 and is now $50.

THanks for the insight. Considering doing an add on in the semi near future so things could change but at least the craziness of the past couple years has died down. Easier to budget and plan to some extent.

7/16" OSB was $7.75 at HD (Dallas) this past weekend. Was shocked to see it that low.

Wood indexes are down considerably, but it isn't translating to the same savings for contractors or your home stores just yet. Suppliers are stocking back up on depleted inventories as well as a rotation of strategic shutdowns at mills are keeping consumer prices inflated, although stable.

Dang - lucky! I was just looking at local prices.

pre-covid it was about $350 per 1000 board feet

during the run up it hit $1750

bounced a lot in the 800-1200 range

a week ago hit low of $365

back up to $400 now

that being said... there is a lot of inventory out there which could drive the price down again... the interest rates are significantly affecting building and there is a big slowdown in the industry... especially tract homes

not offering advice on direction... just some info