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Ruminations on a digital dollar

2,925 Views | 32 Replies | Last: 3 yr ago by YouBet
administrative errors
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Had anyone given it much thought? Powell just claimed its a high priority target.

What changes should markets expect with conversion to digital dollar?
Is it programmable like crypto/bitcoin?

How can it be traced and who is in charge of tracing it?

Will Cash be banned?

What incentives will the USDD bring to bear?

Who will benefit the most?
***
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YouBet
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AG
Been worried about it since Pelosi tried to ram it through with COVID stimulus. It's the primary event that made me start looking at crypto, seriously. Admittedly very late to the game though.

This should scare the sh^t out of everyone since Democrats are pushing it. It will be used to control behaviors and thought. The government will benefit the most because they will ban cash as a parallel and which means all transactions get reported. Thus, crypto becomes critical.

administrative errors
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Suddenly "learn2code" becomes a demand for everyone.
***
Coming soon:
AE Ventures - sooner than soon
*Psychedelic Retreats
*Physical and mental exercises
*Addiction services

Step 3: property found

Step 4: set date

Step 5: plan agenda for participants, food, logistics etc, integration and counseling post-experience

Step 6: long-term planning

I am amped.
Outdoorag011
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This is an effort to gain even more control. They will eventually phase out cash so that they can tax every single transaction. The days of earning currency on the side and getting paid in cash will be over. Every transaction from mowing someone's lawn to your every day income will be taxed.
Philip J Fry
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AG
One step away from tying it to voting behavior.
Madagascar
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AG
My theory is that we are only looking into this because China is. We are playing catch-up and the moves we make will be based on what China does.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/08/china-to-hand-out-1point5-million-in-lunar-new-year-digital-currency-test.html
Pepper Brooks
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AG
How long before they "require" disclosure of your public wallet addresses?
“There is no red.
There is no blue.
There is the state.
And there is you.”

“As government expands, Liberty contracts” - R. Reagan
Madagascar
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AG
Speaking of which, there is a crypto stock that was on the list of crypto stocks we all researched on the main thread called GAHC that claims to use blockchain technology to secure anonymous voting. Seemed interesting so I put a small amount in it but I will be curious to see if it takes off.
YouBet
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AG
Madagascar said:

My theory is that we are only looking into this because China is. We are playing catch-up and the moves we make will be based on what China does.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/08/china-to-hand-out-1point5-million-in-lunar-new-year-digital-currency-test.html
I suspect there is some truth to this because it gives our government the added "benefit" of creating a method for transactional taxation, punitive wage garnishment, punitive freezing of accounts if they don't like how you spend your money, wrongthink profiling based on spend, etc. That would lead to a social profile score which China already dabbles in.

All f'ing scary.
administrative errors
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NTXAg10 said:

How long before they "require" disclosure of your public wallet addresses?
how long until they say "you can't say that it fell off a boat and you no longer have access"
***
Coming soon:
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*Physical and mental exercises
*Addiction services

Step 3: property found

Step 4: set date

Step 5: plan agenda for participants, food, logistics etc, integration and counseling post-experience

Step 6: long-term planning

I am amped.
BlueTaze
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India already banned bitcoin and is working on their own digital currency.

Why would government allow a decentralized currency that reduces transactional transparency to them and reduces their monetary manipulation powers?
TxAG#2011
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I'd imagine you'd see the introduction into decentralized finance, and the demise of traditional banking occur at a much more rapid pace.
Ag In Ok
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AG
TxAG#2011 said:

I'd imagine you'd see the introduction into decentralized finance, and the demise of traditional banking occur at a much more rapid pace.


Are bank stocks dropping? I ask as i would think both the value of existing crypto and banks would drop as this concept progresses
TxAG#2011
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The stock market isn't reflective of fundamentals these days and especially for tech that is many years away
ac04
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the government can't even keep drugs out of prisons. they have no chance of stopping bitcoin, even if they do "ban" it.
TxAG#2011
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ac04 said:

the government can't even keep drugs out of prisons. they have no chance of stopping bitcoin, even if they do "ban" it.


They can't stop it but lets be real, if the government closed down the exchanges and made it illegal to own it would be down -75% in ten minutes.
ac04
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bitcoin is just computer code, which has already been classified as speech in US law. so the first hurdle they'd have to clear is the first amendment. past that there are enormous economic implications to making bitcoin illegal now that so many US institutions are jumping in. they missed their window to kill it, its not going to happen.
Outdoorag011
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Wait wait wait........ do you really think politicians won't break "US law" in order to stop Bitcoin or anything else they don't like? Do you see the sh*t show taking place in Washington right now? Those dumba**es break laws every single day. I'm pretty sure it is required by law when you become a politician to actually break laws. That's at least what it looks like. Now do I think it will happen... no I don't but after all that we went through in 2020 and now 2021, crazier things have happened.
Pepper Brooks
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AG
administrative errors said:

NTXAg10 said:

How long before they "require" disclosure of your public wallet addresses?
how long until they say "you can't say that it fell off a boat and you no longer have access"


Bitcoin scams are rampant these days you know. My sats didn't fall into the lake, they fell into someone else's boat. Now prove I'm not telling the truth.
“There is no red.
There is no blue.
There is the state.
And there is you.”

“As government expands, Liberty contracts” - R. Reagan
ac04
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bitcoin is a $1T asset now. bigger than facebook and closing in on google. we've entered global game theory territory. i don't think you guys are thinking big enough about how this will all play out. the US is not going to ban bitcoin and cede control to china, especially considering how much bitcoin is held by US citizens and institutions. this would only accelerate the demise of the dollar as the world reserve currency.
lb1lb2
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AG
From an article I read:

Then for a moment try to think about how big this could be for emerging markets, who will be freed of the dollar standard or of old technology infrastructure. Imagine how this wraps into the explosion 5G and 6G. Just dare to imagine what this is all going to be worth as a space...
The global equity market cap is $100tn.
The global debt market is $283tn.
The global derivatives market is $1 quadrillion.
The entire digital asset space right now is worth $1.7tn. It is going up 100x or 200x over the next
YouBet
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AG
ac04 said:

bitcoin is a $1T asset now. bigger than facebook and closing in on google. we've entered global game theory territory. i don't think you guys are thinking big enough about how this will all play out. the US is not going to ban bitcoin and cede control to china, especially considering how much bitcoin is held by US citizens and institutions. this would only accelerate the demise of the dollar as the world reserve currency.
I agree that many of us may not be thinking big enough here on BTC being the horse out of the barn, but I also think you are putting too much faith in our government. You mentioned 1A earlier as being an impediment to the government negatively impacting BTC. Honestly, 1A is irrelevant. The government will walk over or around that if they want to here. They will not hesitate to ignore the constitution to get their way as our laws do not apply to them.

I also don't think the US will ban BTC either. However, what I think they will do which is what they are doing in other areas is to degrade the supporting institutions or collateral functions around crypto that effectively makes it usable. This is how they will effectively neuter 2A, eventually.

Where I'm still fuzzy on crypto is how your every day citizen is going to operate around DD. You won't be able to unless you are just going to live in a black market on the dark web. Any channel where crypto has to come back into the DD system in order to complete a legitimate transaction will have eyes on it. So, I think what I'm trying to understand from the crypto evangelists is what the plan is here?

Is it to just keep stacking crypto so that when DD does get implemented they have an advantage in wealth preservation from a currency conversion perspective? I'm assuming that's the plan.
administrative errors
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Part of it is that, being able to quickly move your "value" into a better solution as it becomes available, if necessary. Much harder to convert dollars into crypto than other way around.
***
Coming soon:
AE Ventures - sooner than soon
*Psychedelic Retreats
*Physical and mental exercises
*Addiction services

Step 3: property found

Step 4: set date

Step 5: plan agenda for participants, food, logistics etc, integration and counseling post-experience

Step 6: long-term planning

I am amped.
Ag In Ok
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AG
Do the common apps have an issue with retiring US cash back to the customer? Should i have a concern with Gemini?
administrative errors
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I would be "concerned with" every exchange as they are the weakest points to attack in the crypto environment. I'd definitely learn how to sell P2P without an exchange for good/services.

I'm not sure what you're asking in your first question though.
***
Coming soon:
AE Ventures - sooner than soon
*Psychedelic Retreats
*Physical and mental exercises
*Addiction services

Step 3: property found

Step 4: set date

Step 5: plan agenda for participants, food, logistics etc, integration and counseling post-experience

Step 6: long-term planning

I am amped.
one MEEN Ag
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AG
Long term, Bitcoin isn't going to be used as a transactional currency. Its just sitting as reserves to park cash and get money out of countries that ban currency export like china or tax it heavily like australia.

The public ledger feature already has companies working on behalf of the government to demask coin owners.

You're going to see the rise of alt coins like ZCash and Monero.

I think you're going to see a black market for bitcoin that has a high certainty of not being traced. People like early adopters who have it on thumb drives. Harvesting old hard drives as well.


administrative errors
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Impossible to claim.

Go read about bitcoin's Taproot upgrade that is being worked on and in the process of negotiating with the different mining pools. Pretty fascinating stuff.

But you're right as well, bitcoin doesn't have to be perfect for it to still be the anchor of the crypto economy. It just has to continue being its immutable self.
***
Coming soon:
AE Ventures - sooner than soon
*Psychedelic Retreats
*Physical and mental exercises
*Addiction services

Step 3: property found

Step 4: set date

Step 5: plan agenda for participants, food, logistics etc, integration and counseling post-experience

Step 6: long-term planning

I am amped.
YouBet
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AG
Bloomberg article on this: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-02-25/fed-s-digital-dollar-would-look-nothing-like-bitcoin

Quote:

As long as people trust the Fed not to steal their money (and why would it, when it can print as much as it likes?), a Fed payments system could be incredibly cheap without relying on any cryptocurrency technology at all.
Wow, that's nave. Hell yes they would steal it. It's called transactional taxes.

Quote:

A Fed-run electronic payment system would compete with existing payment applications, such as PayPal, Venmo, Stripe, Visa and MasterCard. That would put those companies at an inherent disadvantage, since they all require banks to operate, and the Fed is its own bank. And because the Fed is part of the government, it doesn't even need to turn a profit, so its payment service could be very cheap indeed. Fee-charging payment services might be put out of business.

In fact, since the digital dollars that people held at the Fed would be an alternative to keeping those dollars in a checking account, the Fed would also be competing with private banks and credit unions.

Maybe that's a good thing maybe payment and cash storage is simply such a mature and commodified product now that there's no reason to have profit-making companies doing it, and government can safely muscle them out. But that would in effect be nationalizing an industry, which is always a risky move. Yellen is correct to promise only to do more research into the idea.
Count me as one who wants a massive buffer between me and the government. This is pretty horrific to think about.
cisgenderedAggie
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It's called slavery. America's "racial reckoning" is a distraction to keep attention away from the chains they aim to bring back.
Spudman
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AG
Very interesting article that touches on some of the main facets. Thanks for sharing.
LOYAL AG
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AG
ac04 said:

bitcoin is a $1T asset now. bigger than facebook and closing in on google. we've entered global game theory territory. i don't think you guys are thinking big enough about how this will all play out. the US is not going to ban bitcoin and cede control to china, especially considering how much bitcoin is held by US citizens and institutions. this would only accelerate the demise of the dollar as the world reserve currency.


What currency do you think replaces the dollar in the foreseeable future? Please don't say the Chinese Yuan without explaining how that survives the eminent collapse of the Chinese economy. Chinas demographics are terminal and for all the hand wringing about the expansion of the dollar we've done nothing compared to the Chinese who have expanded their currency at 9x the rate of the dollar.

Fact is that US dominance of the global economy is far deeper than just the dollar as the reserve currency. As long as we're willing to patrol the seas to insure safe passage for everyone's goods the world doesn't really have much choice but to do business our way and nobody else is capable of securing the seas. I'd argue we're becoming less interested in providing that service but that's going to lead to a less integrated global economy where reserve currency status is less important. That might actually lead to a hastened decline of the dollar before we see another currency displace it as the global reserve.
A fearful society is a compliant society. That's why Democrats and criminals prefer their victims to be unarmed. Gun Control is not about guns, it's about control.
LOYAL AG
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AG
YouBet said:

Bloomberg article on this: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-02-25/fed-s-digital-dollar-would-look-nothing-like-bitcoin

Quote:

As long as people trust the Fed not to steal their money (and why would it, when it can print as much as it likes?), a Fed payments system could be incredibly cheap without relying on any cryptocurrency technology at all.
Wow, that's nave. Hell yes they would steal it. It's called transactional taxes.

Quote:

A Fed-run electronic payment system would compete with existing payment applications, such as PayPal, Venmo, Stripe, Visa and MasterCard. That would put those companies at an inherent disadvantage, since they all require banks to operate, and the Fed is its own bank. And because the Fed is part of the government, it doesn't even need to turn a profit, so its payment service could be very cheap indeed. Fee-charging payment services might be put out of business.

In fact, since the digital dollars that people held at the Fed would be an alternative to keeping those dollars in a checking account, the Fed would also be competing with private banks and credit unions.

Maybe that's a good thing maybe payment and cash storage is simply such a mature and commodified product now that there's no reason to have profit-making companies doing it, and government can safely muscle them out. But that would in effect be nationalizing an industry, which is always a risky move. Yellen is correct to promise only to do more research into the idea.
Count me as one who wants a massive buffer between me and the government. This is pretty horrific to think about.


My concern over a digital dollar is a repeat of 1933 when gold was $20/ounce on Friday and $35/ounce on Monday or however exactly that was executed. Destruction over time via "managed" inflation is bad enough but at least you can plan for and manage the impact of it. A completely digital currency just gives government way too much power. Immeasurably more than they have today.
A fearful society is a compliant society. That's why Democrats and criminals prefer their victims to be unarmed. Gun Control is not about guns, it's about control.
YouBet
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AG
LOYAL AG said:

ac04 said:

bitcoin is a $1T asset now. bigger than facebook and closing in on google. we've entered global game theory territory. i don't think you guys are thinking big enough about how this will all play out. the US is not going to ban bitcoin and cede control to china, especially considering how much bitcoin is held by US citizens and institutions. this would only accelerate the demise of the dollar as the world reserve currency.


What currency do you think replaces the dollar in the foreseeable future? Please don't say the Chinese Yuan without explaining how that survives the eminent collapse of the Chinese economy. Chinas demographics are terminal and for all the hand wringing about the expansion of the dollar we've done nothing compared to the Chinese who have expanded their currency at 9x the rate of the dollar.

Fact is that US dominance of the global economy is far deeper than just the dollar as the reserve currency. As long as we're willing to patrol the seas to insure safe passage for everyone's goods the world doesn't really have much choice but to do business our way and nobody else is capable of securing the seas. I'd argue we're becoming less interested in providing that service but that's going to lead to a less integrated global economy where reserve currency status is less important. That might actually lead to a hastened decline of the dollar before we see another currency displace it as the global reserve.
Article out today in WSJ talking about this and how huge of an issue this is for China even more so after COVID. Their birth rates dropped precipitously last year according to several stats. They are in trouble on this front. This will lead to ever more expansionist endeavors by them over time.
YouBet
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AG
LOYAL AG said:

YouBet said:

Bloomberg article on this: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-02-25/fed-s-digital-dollar-would-look-nothing-like-bitcoin

Quote:

As long as people trust the Fed not to steal their money (and why would it, when it can print as much as it likes?), a Fed payments system could be incredibly cheap without relying on any cryptocurrency technology at all.
Wow, that's nave. Hell yes they would steal it. It's called transactional taxes.

Quote:

A Fed-run electronic payment system would compete with existing payment applications, such as PayPal, Venmo, Stripe, Visa and MasterCard. That would put those companies at an inherent disadvantage, since they all require banks to operate, and the Fed is its own bank. And because the Fed is part of the government, it doesn't even need to turn a profit, so its payment service could be very cheap indeed. Fee-charging payment services might be put out of business.

In fact, since the digital dollars that people held at the Fed would be an alternative to keeping those dollars in a checking account, the Fed would also be competing with private banks and credit unions.

Maybe that's a good thing maybe payment and cash storage is simply such a mature and commodified product now that there's no reason to have profit-making companies doing it, and government can safely muscle them out. But that would in effect be nationalizing an industry, which is always a risky move. Yellen is correct to promise only to do more research into the idea.
Count me as one who wants a massive buffer between me and the government. This is pretty horrific to think about.


My concern over a digital dollar is a repeat of 1933 when gold was $20/ounce on Friday and $35/ounce on Monday or however exactly that was executed. Destruction over time via "managed" inflation is bad enough but at least you can plan for and manage the impact of it. A completely digital currency just gives government way too much power. Immeasurably more than they have today.
Exactly. They will be able to completely control the economy, actions, and thought however they see fit once this happens. If it ultimately "evolves" to what this author has presented then you will only have the freedoms accorded to you by whoever is in charge at the time that they deem fit to give....and if you pledge allegiance to whatever it is regardless of it's legitimacy.

All we have to do is look to China to see how this plays out.
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