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Please talk me off the ledge here about the economy

2,666 Views | 18 Replies | Last: 3 yr ago by Self-Made
dubberage
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I am reading almost hourly posts about business (large and small) laying off, reducing pay 30% or more across the board, or furloughing all their employees, and if the mostly nationwide shut down lasts at least another month, if not two, how can most businesses survive?

I bet the SBA PPP program that kicks off tomorrow, will (1) system will crash multiple times due to overwhelming need, and (2) they will need at least 10 trillion dollars and not just 2 trillion available and (3) will become the biggest scam opportunity for many illegitimate businesses.

I am not a stock market or financial expert, and luckily manage a small construction related firm with great backlog and flexibility to deal with this, but how is this not going to damage/change our economy is a way that I have not seen in my lifetime (in mid 40's)?
Aggie_2463
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AG
I came here to try, instead you have me ready to jump
FrontPorchAg
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The system will crash tomorrow, and it the end of the day it won't be that big of a deal. Small businesses including mine will get the money they need. The amount needed is 1T not 10T. There will be more help on the way. A lot of the businesses going under weren't destined to make it. The vast majority of America still has a job and they are itiching to get out of the house and spend money.

Now put on your big boy pants and either go back to work or jump
All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others
dubberage
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sorry.

I remember the mid 80's when my dad was in oil and I had a lot of friends that moved away (because their dads/moms lost jobs), and then dot.com bust in 2001 (I got laid off), and then the financial crisis in 2008-10, etc. Houston's recession in 2014-15, etc.

But most of these affected certain parts of the economy (oil, banking, dot coms, etc.), but this thing is greatly affecting every industry (banking, airlines, manufacturing, retail, and soon to be real estate, etc.). I think if we get a "go back to normal" by May/June we will be okay, but beyond that and I think it will be a very long road back to anything before this.
Outdoorag011
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Yeah... people are ready to get back to spending money they don't have on crap they won't need. If this situation has shown me anything, it is that a large portion of our population couldn't go two weeks without a paycheck. Living paycheck to paycheck and financing life via credit card. 1 trillion is wrong, the Fed has already printed 2.3 trillion and headed towards 6-8. Yeah it may not be 10 trillion but it will be a lot!
jh0400
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AG
This current period is largely caused by a lack of consumer demand due to current mobility restrictions as a response to COVID-19. Once the restrictions are back to normal you should see demand start to build again. There will be some permanent damage, and this won't be an immediate bounce back. The trick to the economy bouncing back sooner rather than later will be getting working capital into businesses in an efficient matter to allow them to ramp back up to support demand.

There are some industries that may have longer impacts. I personally believe that the current remote working situation is going to have a long-term impact on business travel. Companies are going to have to figure out how to sell remotely, and once they do that it's going to be hard to justify spending money to fly someone across the country for a single meeting.
CSTXAg92
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AG
Two ways to look at this:

1) It sucks and it's nothing but doom and gloom.

2) It sucks and represents a tremendous opportunity.

How you fare depends on your perspective.
Ragoo
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AG
100 years ago there were 2 billion people on earth. Today there are 7.7 billion.

If you the population contracts over the next 50 years I too would worry about the health of the global economy.

If you think the population continues to expand then I would remain bullish on the growth of the economy.
dubberage
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Thanks. I feel better now and the margaritas are helping, so backed off the ledge.

I have always been bullish on Texas and will be until I retire.

CSTXAg92 - I do agree on your point #2
FrontPorchAg
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Outdoorag011 said:

Yeah... people are ready to get back to spending money they don't have on crap they won't need. If this situation has shown me anything, it is that a large portion of our population couldn't go two weeks without a paycheck. Living paycheck to paycheck and financing life via credit card. 1 trillion is wrong, the Fed has already printed 2.3 trillion and headed towards 6-8. Yeah it may not be 10 trillion but it will be a lot!
The 1T was a reference to the SBA program, not everything. Yes, people are incredibly irresponsible with their finances but I don't think that's going to change as much as we would like any time soon.
All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others
ReloadAg
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AG
I needed some positivity today as well. Seems like some days are extra full of doom and gloom lately and today is one of them.
jh0400
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AG
Stop watching CNBC.
Agnzona
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The ledge is getting damn crowed. I liked it better when I was the only one out here.
"Fort Worth where the West begins...and Dallas is where the East peters out!"
dlp3719
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AG
60 days ago our economy was fine to great.

We work in a shop environment where work from home isn't an option. I've had to send people home and tell them to get unemployment but I want them to come back as soon as we are allowed to go to work again.

If this only goes 30-60 days, I think we could roar back. Eventually small business owners run out of money and it's hard to roar back but new opportunities for young entrepreneurs to fill in the voids left behind.

Massive wealth transfers will happen thru this. Smart people have been saving over the last decade during the boom times to take advantage now when cash is king.
CSTXAg92
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AG
dubberage said:

Thanks. I feel better now and the margaritas are helping, so backed off the ledge.

I have always been bullish on Texas and will be until I retire.

CSTXAg92 - I do agree on your point #2
MouthBQ98
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AG
As long as there is enough liquidity to spam the gap, we can recover reasonably well reasonably quickly. If this goes on too long and things tighten up considerably, this could drag on like the Great Recession recovery.
FrioAg 00
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AG
This is the truth.

I'm an optimist. There isn't a scenario you can dream up with that I won't ultimately get excited to overcome.

Complete economic meltdown with large scale starvation, violence and zero currency or rule of law? Sounds like a 6 month survival camping with my family and then we'll start rebuilding and repopulating the Earth. They'll be so badass once we've done it.

Imminent death? So you're saying I go to heaven and spend eternity with our creator, awesome.

You choose your perspective. Danger is real but fear is a choice.





A 3 year recession or a 10 year depression? Please. My grandparents survivors it and they came our pretty happy. They had 6 kids in the 40s and 50s.
Saltwater Assassin
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AG
CSTXAg92 said:

Two ways to look at this:

1) It sucks and it's nothing but doom and gloom.

2) It sucks and represents a tremendous opportunity.

How you fare depends on your perspective.




Perfectly said!!!

I love your second point; i plan on taking market share from those in my industry that follow your first point
Yesterday
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AG
We own two pawnshops and even though historically we're a recession proof business I'm beginning to worry. Loaning money to the underbanked won't do any good if none of them can pay it back and then no one is able to buy what they left behind. I hope we pull out of this fast!
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