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ROKU

46,068 Views | 270 Replies | Last: 4 mo ago by wcb
bmks270
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AG
Finally sold my shares after being a long time bull, holding since 2018.

Definitely some lessons here on when to take profits that I never took.

I think they're falling behind and their market lead is disappearing. Currently Roku is a middle man that all of the content creators are trying to eliminate.

They still have growth left in my view (simply because streaming itself continues to grow), but I think they're past their peak and will face a slow decline in market share. They don't have a real moat as their customers (advertisers) can go anywhere, and they're becoming a pain and cost to content creators rather than a benefit. As their market share shrinks so does their value to advertises and content creators
HoustonAg2014
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I definitely feel like a dumbass with that $100B comment. I actually sold calls on ROKU back in 2020 in January when it was $400ish and got called out while I was on my honeymoon. I was pissed I got called out but didn't have service to buy back and it started to fall around the end of my trip. I can't see when I made that post but I did buy in at $125 and rode it down to $50 then up to $400 where I cashed out.

My biggest trade of all time and I will most likely never beat that. With that said I made some stupid investments over the past 1.5 years and have paid the price for them... I have lost over half of my Roku gains by investing in a company that was loved by OA and the stock trading thread. That is what I get... UGH

Edited to say that to be fair I think the market cap was $50B when I made the comment so seeing $1,000 share price didn't seem out of the question. Amazon fire TV completely crushed this stock. Built in fire stick/roku stick was what Roku had going for it and Amazon did what they do and took out the competition.
jtraggie99
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HoustonAg2014 said:

I definitely feel like a dumbass with that $100B comment. I actually sold calls on ROKU back in 2020 in January when it was $400ish and got called out while I was on my honeymoon. I was pissed I got called out but didn't have service to buy back and it started to fall around the end of my trip. I can't see when I made that post but I did buy in at $125 and rode it down to $50 then up to $400 where I cashed out.

My biggest trade of all time and I will most likely never beat that. With that said I made some stupid investments over the past 1.5 years and have paid the price for them... I have lost over half of my Roku gains by investing in a company that was loved by OA and the stock trading thread. That is what I get... UGH

Edited to say that to be fair I think the market cap was $50B when I made the comment so seeing $1,000 share price didn't seem out of the question. Amazon fire TV completely crushed this stock. Built in fire stick/roku stick was what Roku had going for it and Amazon did what they do and took out the competition.

Just wondering, where are you getting this is a result of Amazon?
HoustonAg2014
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AG
The drop in their stock price is not all a result of Amazon as all high growth names like Roku got slapped the last 1.5 years. My personal belief is that Amazon creating the FireTV where you no longer need a stick, had a pretty big impact on their business model. I could be way off base but I am pretty sure Amazon came out with their TV that had the first stick built in in the last 1.5 years and that really did not help the company.


I was looking at buying a Roku TV due to not having a stick dangling from the wall, then my Amazon account started pushing 75 inch fire TVs for like $500. I now have 4 Fire TV's and no Roku's. And the Fire TV integrates all of my stuff across all of the Amazon platforms that I have.


Like I said, I could be way off and this is a personal belief, but I think Roku got hit pretty hard when Amazon did the exact same thing as Roku in building the system into the TV. I always thought Roku would probably have to get bought by Google to complete over the long term. That still could happen.
dreyOO
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It's bouncing back up. I bought more at $40. Wish I had bought a lot more. Think it's going to be volatile the rest of the year. But I just trade in and out of it. Kinda fun stock to play in that regard.
MAS444
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AG
Up over 60% YTD
Pacifico
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AG
Yes sir!
wcb
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So just curious, what's a best case scenario for them this year?

I'm in at $180. Wondering if I should go ahead, cut my losses and move on. Pre COVID their peak was $160.
dreyOO
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Still rolling. Might jump out here and look for another drop. Not sure yet.
Keeper of The Spirits
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AG
Just announced 25% of their cash was with SVB
insulator_king
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Yep, that's gonna sting.
wcb
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AG
Up 27% today.

Now just $105 more until I'm at break even.
RightWingConspirator
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I'm avoiding ROKU like the plague. I took my absolute worst loss on ROKU after having purchased in the upper $300s and then more down in the $200s then the $100s…I finally said enough and took my lumps.
LOYAL AG
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AG
I was thinking about this thread today. I don't see where Roku fits as a product. We just bought a new TV. $900 for an 85" TCL TV with all the apps built in. It's connected to a Roku Sound Bar and their woofer but if it wasn't I'd still be streaming Predator on Max with a Sonos Sound system. As far as I can tell I lose nothing if a didn't have Roku. I say that as all of our TV are on that platform but right now I doubt any of the replacements will be. What am I missing?
A fearful society is a compliant society. That's why Democrats and criminals prefer their victims to be unarmed. Gun Control is not about guns, it's about control.
sellthefarm
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Don't a bunch of smart tvs come with Roku as their built in platform?
LOYAL AG
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AG
sellthefarm said:

Don't a bunch of smart tvs come with Roku as their built in platform?


Yes including one of the four we have. The newest came with Google TV and the one prior to that had Prime TV. I'm just not sure a company the size of Roku can maintain market share in this space.
A fearful society is a compliant society. That's why Democrats and criminals prefer their victims to be unarmed. Gun Control is not about guns, it's about control.
WoMD
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LOYAL AG said:

I was thinking about this thread today. I don't see where Roku fits as a product. We just bought a new TV. $900 for an 85" TCL TV with all the apps built in. It's connected to a Roku Sound Bar and their woofer but if it wasn't I'd still be streaming Predator on Max with a Sonos Sound system. As far as I can tell I lose nothing if a didn't have Roku. I say that as all of our TV are on that platform but right now I doubt any of the replacements will be. What am I missing?

So it's a smart tv using what system? It has to run something. Or did you mean that it is one that has roku built in? In which case, that's why it has all the apps built in, running through roku. So that is where it fits as a product, as you are asking about. Roku is running the apps that allow you to watch, as an operating system. Like how you can't use a web browser without having windows or MacOS to run any program. You can't just buy a blank computer and expect anything to work without an operating system to do it. Max will work with any of the streaming devices/systems, but it needs one of them for it to function. Roku is just one of the options.

Generally tcl has roku or Google interface for all the apps. I don't think tcl has their own software, or maybe they do? So some system is running all those apps on your tv, even if you don't realize it. The roku interface is quite good from my experience. Both my tcl tvs have roku built in, and I love it. I can run every app I need through it. Another tv I have has a firestick running things, since Samsungs smart tv system is garbage. I tried to use the Samsung system first, but it was a piece of ****, so I plugged in a $25 firestick to get things working. And my main tv has an Apple TV running everything, because the LG smart system is also garbage (but better than the brand new Samsung TVs system I just bought), and doesn't even have all the apps I need. So to answer your question, if you want a tv to run all the apps effectively it is best to have one of the streaming devices attached to them (or built in), as the TVs without those systems, while still having functionality as a smart tv, are vastly inferior in every way. And that's where roku fits in. From my experience using all of them extensively, Apple TV is the best, followed by roku, and then amazon firestick. But some of that is personal preference. They all run everything I need, whereas the built in systems don't, or are basically afterthoughts by the tv manufacturers, so generally just aren't that good. Also, as the tv gets older, if you want to update systems, it's quite easy and cheap to replace these streaming devices basically as updates whenever you want to improve that hardware.

So while some TVs have their own systems that can run many apps we use, they are vastly inferior in quality of user experience as well as the ability to run apps that work on them. In some circumstances, for some people, that is sufficient. But for me, if I can't run apps I use all the time, or if they're slow and buggy, then it's not worth it. So I plug in a roku or firestick, which does everything I need, and they do it well.

Roku is now also building their own TVs, which is an interesting development. I'd imagine the quality will be comparable to TCLs, but I have no first hand experience. They're pretty cheap through Best Buy, so I'm actually tempted to pick one up and see how it compares to a similar system from tcl. I'm not sure if this change in rokus business model will be significant, but if it works, then it could be a good step in the right direction for the company to expand their business and add stability in a very competitive field.
dreyOO
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wcb said:

Up 27% today.

Now just $105 more until I'm at break even.
I'm not an expert on this one at all. But i'm thankful to have bought in and out and in and out. So volatile that it's possible to make (and lose) a lot...just incredibly difficult to buy and hold.

ETA: for me, Roku is a play for the inevitable consolidation of streamers that will occur. Hard to predict which way that's going to happen...but I like their OS and usability. I don't really like them getting into hardware, but maybe i'm missing the connection there.

As a consumer, I like being able to monitor all my subscriptions easily through one portal. Roku is still the slickest and cheapest route for me to do that. And they're also integrating some cool marketing tech into their streams.
Ag13
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AG
Probably going to start layering into ROKU again via puts. Admittedly having a bit of a FOMO moment, but still a believer in the company long term and for now we are below where I sold at.

Some short term market trends/catalysts to follow:
- Fed rate hiking cycle possibly done or almost done. May move to cutting rates within the next few months. Should benefit tech stocks in general.
- Soft landing scenario may actually be at play. One of the big knocks for Roku was the potential for dried up advertisement spending during a recession. If we avoid a recession (and the consumer stays strong), would expect Roku to keep growing it's advertising business quickly.
- Perhaps a bit counter intuitive but, the ongoing failure of virtually all the media company to become profitable via streaming could have a positive effect for Roku as the middleman. These companies will need Roku's infrastructure and massive audience to promote their own apps AND they will be forced to keep raising their prices to eventually get to breakeven (which Roku will also benefit from).
- The Hollywood strike will have a lagged effect on new movies and shows, but for now there are plenty of options for viewing entertainment. A compiler that makes money off all the different irons in the fire including live entertainment (as opposed to, for example, a movie theatre that relies almost solely on new blockbuster content) should be able to weather the strike a bit better now and into the future when the effects are actually being felt.
CapCity12thMan
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got in at $85 in 2020. good to finally see profit again.
Ag13
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Back above $100. Layering in since July has been effective, finally.
dreyOO
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I've been flipping this one for awhile. Took earnings in the 90s but tempted to let the rest ride. It's so volatile
AgGrad99
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Once it went positive and I could make a little, I sold recently.

Of course it went above 100 today
BucketofBalls99
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I'm at a break even point right now with it (maybe up a couple bucks).

I haven't had a chance to catch up on why this has made a run up like it has. Can anyone give some insight?

Debating if I should pull out at break even? Or is there a better ride ahead?
EnronAg
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AG
i had been holding shares at a $102 basis for almost 2 years now...collecting some premium for covered calls over that time...maybe $10ish bucks or so...just dumped all mine...and maybe STUPIDLY, just sold some OTM puts to collect premium...or get back in at a lower price...might've been dumb if this thing pukes...but the recent move was just crazy parabolic to not capture the gain...nearly 100% move in less than a month...INSANE I was able to cash out
wcb
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AG
EnronAg said:

i had been holding shares at a $102 basis for almost 2 years now...
Same but at $190. :-(

It gets anywhere close to that and I'll sell and move on.
 
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