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Call Your Shot (next recession)

11,915 Views | 76 Replies | Last: 2 yr ago by jagvocate
badharambe
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AG
One of the other threads got me thinking. Why not have us all look silly and throw out recession predictions? So, here we go.

Begins: February 2021
Total % Fall: 42%

As info, politics and data is constantly changing, I think it's fair to say that all are allowed to change our thesis once per year.
Picard
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AG
My prediction is that you're all wrong

5C
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AG
badharambe said:

One of the other threads got me thinking. Why not have us all look silly and throw out recession predictions? So, here we go.

Begins: February 2021
Total % Fall: 42%

As info, politics and data is constantly changing, I think it's fair to say that all are allowed to change our thesis once per year.


So you don't think trump wins the election?
permabull
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I'm calling Dow 30,000.

Not sure when that will happen, but I just wanted to go on record calling it so in a few years I can write clickbait articles that start with "Man who called Dow 30,000 says <fill in the blank>"
FrontPorchAg
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After the November election. Trump has too much at stake and will do everything he can to prop it up till then
All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others
infinity ag
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hypeiv said:

I'm calling Dow 30,000.

Not sure when that will happen, but I just wanted to go on record calling it so in a few years I can write clickbait articles that start with "Man who called Dow 30,000 says <fill in the blank>"

haha

I see such articles all the time on the so called financial sites.
$30,000 Millionaire
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AG
This is a fools errand but for fun: Q2 or Q3 of '21, lasts two or three quarters, 17-22% dip.
Bonfire1996
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Because we count govt spending and R&D expenses as GDP, we won't have a broad based recession till the pendulum swings the other direction and a lib takes the reigns. It will be a 35% correction.

I still contend that the private sector contracted during late 2015 and 2016. I think everyone saying we are due isn't looking at that time period where oil dropped hard, and how we rocketed out of it with Trump's election.
IrishTxAggie
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badharambe said:

One of the other threads got me thinking. Why not have us all look silly and throw out recession predictions? So, here we go.

Begins: February 2021
Total % Fall: 42%

As info, politics and data is constantly changing, I think it's fair to say that all are allowed to change our thesis once per year.
42% fall?? That's not a recession, that's a depression.
Scientific
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Bonfire1996 said:


I still contend that the private sector contracted during late 2015 and 2016. I think everyone saying we are due isn't looking at that time period where oil dropped hard, and how we rocketed out of it with Trump's election.

Oil dropped. So what. We didn't have two straight quarters of decline.

For kicks. I say starting Q3 20. heading into 21. ~25% drop.
O'Doyle Rules
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Recession incoming if Pocahontas gets elected.
deadbq03
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No idea when, but I do feel like the next one will cut very deep. Maybe to the point of fundamentally altering public markets..

I'm not an economist and I didn't stay at a Holiday Inn Express, but I find it concerning that most individual investors seem to fall into one of two camps: 1) Ultra-passive Index fund investors, and 2) Technical Day/Swing traders who who use Options/Inverse/Leverage positions to try an maximize gains.

The really concerning thing to me is that both camps don't really care what they're actually putting their money into, they just want to see numbers on a screen go up in the way they think it should.

Maybe it's been that way for a long time and I'm only now noticing it, but it seems fewer and fewer individual investors are conscientiously investing long positions in individual stocks.
dlp3719
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I saw some fairly compelling data from Mauldin Economics that the S&P historically retraces 50% of its gains during a recession. That would imply we go from 3250 (top call) back to 2000. 39% drop in the market.

We ran from 700 to 3100. I think we could very briefly dip below 2000 in the next recession.

When? Guessing Q2 2021
Bobaloo
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S&P is up 370% since the 666 bottom in 2009. That's about the average gain in a bull market. There is no rule that states it has to stop but the numbers say we are nearing the end. Berkshire has pretty much stopped buying equities over the last two quarters. From $14 billion in Q1 2018 to $500 million in Q3 2019. I don't think there is any way to predict. I will only buy select stocks on nice dips and will wait for larger buys after the next bear works it's magic.
2wealfth Man
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It (a recession) will happen; but I wouldn't let cloud my investment thesis.
Talon2DSO
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badharambe said:

One of the other threads got me thinking. Why not have us all look silly and throw out recession predictions? So, here we go.

Begins: February 2021
Total % Fall: 42%

As info, politics and data is constantly changing, I think it's fair to say that all are allowed to change our thesis once per year.


That's a depressions not a recession.

My call:

Q3 2020 - 20% drop, 4.9% unemployment, and more QE and more ****ing government
jja79
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Based on what?
Talon2DSO
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jja79 said:

Based on what?


Pulled these out of the air
DFWag84
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The middle class recession is in full swing right now.
AggieMainland
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Recession started Q3 2019
monarch
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S
AggieMainland has a point; I'm thinking we are seeing the beginning of one now unless our Pres gets his head out of his arrogant ass and quits being an ******* to the world...
Phat32
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Based on what?
IrishTxAggie
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AggieMainland said:

Recession started Q3 2019


Are you saying this simply because the yield curve inverted during Q3 or do you have any other reasoning? Because since July 1, the S&P is up ~4.1%.
IrishTxAggie
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monarch said:

AggieMainland has a point; I'm thinking we are seeing the beginning of one now unless our Pres gets his head out of his arrogant ass and quits being an ******* to the world...


You've been singing this same tune any day that the market is red and disappearing when the market is green. Still yet to give any decent financial opinion other than blaming the Trump.
Bonfire1996
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Anyone saying it began in Q3 when GDP growth was 2.1%.....that guy is a partisan hack.
AggieMainland
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The question was to call the next recession....not when the stock market will stop going up. Too many variables with the market. Trump could announce a deal with China tomorrow and we would rocket ship to new highs. Market will not go down until well into the recession.
IrishTxAggie
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AggieMainland said:

The question was to call the next recession....not when the stock market will stop going up. Too many variables with the market. Trump could announce a deal with China tomorrow and we would rocket ship to new highs. Market will not go down until well into the recession.
But what are your catalysts for saying we've begun the recession?
Tumble Weed
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02/14/2022

It will be known as the great Valentine's day massacre! I will continue to buy up stocks from 2022 to 2032 and then we will go to war in the middle east. My wallet will be fat but my tax rate will be 75%. A strongman will emerge and set our teeth on edge. The Allies will abandon us. We will saw the horns off the wicked and peace will reign for 50 years. New technology will allow us to enjoy a more comfortable lifestyle. And we will still not have won a natty in college football.

Winning lotto numbers:
2, 14, 20, 22, 12, 1

Winning lotto numbers date:
unknown


RockOn
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I don't know.
91AggieLawyer
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I don't think we're in for one soon, but there are the following bubbles, some worse than others:

-- housing (we can't sustain 10 percent per year, even in high growth areas)
-- government spending (as boomers die off and population decreases, tax revenue decreases)
-- social security (one big ponzi scheme that will run out of money at some point and Americans aren't prepared for retirement)
-- Medicare (see SS)
-- consumer debt (see above)

People talk about moving toward socialism. Hell, we're halfway there now.
Stive
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91AggieLawyer said:


-- social security (one big Ponzi scheme that will run out of money at some point and Americans aren't prepared for retirement).


Your statement contradicts itself. If it's a Ponzi scheme, it can't run out of money; it's constantly fed from the people contributing/employed. The amount of money paid out might reduce (2034), but it can't "run out of money".
cjsag94
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No idea the answer.. but I find it interesting how all of the answers talking about recession vs depression, are being defined by stock market returns.

Not saying there isn't typically some level of correlation, but recession and depression are GDP/ economic events, not stock market events. Corrections and Bear markets are stock market events. And what makes it so tough is they are decoupled events which means you can have one without the other, and they don't occur simultaneously or to the same degree.

So, predicting when the next recession is identified, when it actually occurred, and when the market reflects it, are all different answers.
LOYAL AG
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If Warren or Bernie gets the Dem nomination we're going to have a stock market correction in the range of 25%. If either of them gets elected we're going to have a recession. Right now I don't think either of those is going to happen but if they do watch out.

I also don't think we can see another five years of uninterrupted economic expansion even if Trump wins. With that in mind I'll go with early 2021. Trump is on record saying that a trade deal with China might have to wait til after the election. That's a long time for the economy to be on pins and needles. Right now it's just effecting the markets but if a deal doesn't get done and we see substantial tariffs for the long haul it's going to impact domestic prices which has to impact consumers. The US is eventually going to learn that we don't need China and all their BS at some point and when we do it's going to cause inflation which is likely to cause a contraction. Trump is the first president we've had that was willing to stand up to China and their dishonest ways. Assuming that continues the souring of that relationship could be the recession driver.
Scientific
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cjsag94 said:

No idea the answer.. but I find it interesting how all of the answers talking about recession vs depression, are being defined by stock market returns.

Not saying there isn't typically some level of correlation, but recession and depression are GDP/ economic events, not stock market events. Corrections and Bear markets are stock market events. And what makes it so tough is they are decoupled events which means you can have one without the other, and they don't occur simultaneously or to the same degree.

So, predicting when the next recession is identified, when it actually occurred, and when the market reflects it, are all different answers.
By definition, I think a recession is two or more quarters of GDP decline. Are the economic dominos correlated to one and the other? Housing busted, and look what happened. Oil tanked and manufacturing has taken a ding, but GDP and the DOW/S&P haven't suffered. Unemployment was still low through it all.

The low interest environment we're in globally. That's what makes me nervous. We're in uncharted waters, where savers are forced to pollinate in riskier positions.
cjsag94
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Don't be nervous! Go read up on Modern Monetary Theory. 20 years of run away deficits and national debt, with no inflation to speak of.

So it's now accepted we can just print money to keep GDP and consumer confidence flowing through government spending.. With no downside! Shangri-la is upon us!
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