I see your point. That's why I want to be invested in stocks. I'm not certain that means to flip the switch on the entire investment the day it hits Vanguard, though. I think that's a point on which reasonable people could have differences of opinion, and I will leave it at that. As I stated, I am not what I would consider to be an investment expert.

RangerRick9211 said:

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Obviously a Sock said:

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However, we ARE at all time market high numbers[...]

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The S&P has spent 32% of its life within 5% of ATH.

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That's a really interesting stat. Where did you get that? Is that when measured daily? Week or month end or beginning?
I believe strongly in the future of the broader stock market. There is ALWAYS the possibility of turmoil in the Middle East, a 1987, a 2001, a 2008, etc. That's just a part of the risk of investing in equities. The impeachment of the leader of the free world (again, NOT to derail into a political discussion) does give me some pause.

Obviously a Sock said:

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I see your point. That's why I want to be invested in stocks. I'm not certain that means to flip the switch on the entire investment the day it hits Vanguard, though. I think that's a point on which reasonable people could have differences of opinion, and I will leave it at that. As I stated, I am not what I would consider to be an investment expert.

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There are tons of opinions and studies done on DCA vs Lump and which one comes out ahead in the end.

The answer is sometimes it will be DCA, sometimes it will be Lump, and there's no way to know which one it will be for certain. Any logical person would tell you that.

You started the thread saying you wanted to invest $150k into two mutual funds, and then "set it and forget it", but you've now let a stranger on the internet change your mind from what was the easiest, most stress-free way of accomplishing what you wanted to accomplish.

Obviously a Sock said:

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RangerRick9211 said:

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Obviously a Sock said:

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However, we ARE at all time market high numbers[...]

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The S&P has spent 32% of its life within 5% of ATH.

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That's a really interesting stat. Where did you get that? Is that when measured daily? Week or month end or beginning?
I believe strongly in the future of the broader stock market. There is ALWAYS the possibility of turmoil in the Middle East, a 1987, a 2001, a 2008, etc. That's just a part of the risk of investing in equities. The impeachment of the leader of the free world (again, NOT to derail into a political discussion) does give me some pause.

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We've seen this movie before.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/24/jim-cramer-on-impeachment-proceedings-we-have-seen-this-movie-before.html

Tumble Weed said:

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https://texags.com/forums/57/topics/3068825/1

5 pages of advice

Edit to add, I thought that this was a pretty cool article that someone posted in the link above.

https://novelinvestor.com/asset-class-returns/

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The Wells Fargo guy trying to sell me 1.9% fee financial planning showed me the same chart as in that article and said his team prepared it. Wonder who is stealing from whom.

The funds below are subject to unknowable future events and there is a possibility you will lose your entire investment if you invest in them.

XAR - equal weight aerospace and defense (great long term historical growth, has outperformed S&P)

FSCSX - managed fidelity fund, software as a service (killer returns over many years, prospectus states up to 25% may be in one company, currently this fund is 25% MSFT)

QTEC - equal weight tech, very volatile.

SPYG & VOOG - S&P500 growth index (recently has had better returns than the whole 500 index).

OldArmyBrent said:

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Tumble Weed said:

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https://texags.com/forums/57/topics/3068825/1

5 pages of advice

Edit to add, I thought that this was a pretty cool article that someone posted in the link above.

https://novelinvestor.com/asset-class-returns/

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The Wells Fargo guy trying to sell me 1.9% fee financial planning showed me the same chart as in that article and said his team prepared it. Wonder who is stealing from whom.

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There's a ton of those out there that are all a) pretty interesting, and b) show more or less the same thing and can be used to illustrate all manner of investments.

By "prepared" he could've meant anything, even as little as "threw another year of data on an old one and slapped our logo on it.

Oh...and 1.9%?!?!?

That price had the possibility of going down to 1.7% if I have enough managed by him! What a steal!

He avoided the questions about how he makes up for that in returns but eventually said it was because he gives me better ideas than I would get from the internet for free. Response was crickets when I asked what about just spending a few thousand a year on a CPA/CFP that does this.

I'm of the mindset that fees shouldn't always be tried to made up through returns - if you compensated him in a commission standpoint, should he not try and max returns, provided that's your objective?

Fees should be justified through the value given. How available are you? What kind of planning do you provide? Are you bringing new ideas? Etc...

OldArmyBrent said:

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That price had the possibility of going down to 1.7% if I have enough managed by him! What a steal!

He avoided the questions about how he makes up for that in returns but eventually said it was because he gives me better ideas than I would get from the internet for free. Response was crickets when I asked what about just spending a few thousand a year on a CPA/CFP that does this.

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What a steal indeed! What exactly are they providing for 1.7%?

If you like to gamble and want growth, put it all on roku and let it ride!

I held back some of the funds but put in $138K in November 2019. I split it equally between VIMAX (midcap), VSGAX (small cap growth) and VWUAX (growth). Something happened in early 2020, I forget what. I DID hold to "set and forget", rode it down and now the balance as of Friday was:

VIMAX - $64K
VSGAX - $68K
VWUAX - $79K

I know I said set and forget, but it has been a year and a half without touching anything and obviously the performance between these three funds has been vastly different.
Staying within the Vanguard family, any recs for moving out of one or two of these funds and into another?

Gracias

I'm no expert, but unless you have a reason to believe one will outperform the other 2 (or have reason to believe the one will continue to outperform the others), you could just rebalance to even amounts in each fund. Anything you do to try and capitalize on a single fund's movement up will necessarily expose you to more risk on that same movement going against you. Unless you have a reason to believe you can anticipate a particular movement in a particular direction, I'd either rebalance, or just continue with your hands off approach.

Obviously a Sock said:

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One year update. Pretty big fluctuations in the performances of each of these three funds. I have done nothing. Invested 11/2019, right before COVID (interesting experiment), performance to date has been 10.8% but obviously last two years have been a wild ride. Currently balances are:

VIMAX $62K
VSGAX $54K
VWUAX $60K

Rebalance, or hold as is?

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So, since 2019 you have a PAPER gain of $36K. That could be gone tomorrow, correct?

Why don't you have your money working hard? Your original $138K investment in a 7% dividend paying stock would have paid you $9660/yr.

Set it & forget it may be great for IRA/401K, not really for cash you can access & make work harder than in the casino that is the market.

You know what a dividend is, correct?

Dividends are cash payments to you, mostly quarterly, that reflect the overall strength of a company & their business model. Free cash flow to the holders, a tangible value one receives versus share price growth/decline. It is the truest form/representation of what is going on w/that particular company.

Are there things to watch? By all means, but if the dividends are being produced by the operations of the organization, netted out, then you have an income stream.

I posted a link to a couple of guys, 1 is a friend, called Mail Box Money. It's a really good podcast, it's on another thread here somewhere.

12thMan9 said:

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Obviously a Sock said:

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One year update. Pretty big fluctuations in the performances of each of these three funds. I have done nothing. Invested 11/2019, right before COVID (interesting experiment), performance to date has been 10.8% but obviously last two years have been a wild ride. Currently balances are:

VIMAX $62K
VSGAX $54K
VWUAX $60K

Rebalance, or hold as is?

---

So, since 2019 you have a PAPER gain of $36K. That could be gone tomorrow, correct?

Why don't you have your money working hard? Your original $138K investment in a 7% dividend paying stock would have paid you $9660/yr.

Set it & forget it may be great for IRA/401K, not really for cash you can access & make work harder than in the casino that is the market.

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This isn't an account that I need to tap. This is an account that I hope to not need for a long time. My home and all cars are paid off, I am employed, I have disability insurance, etc. Therefore, I am most interested in growth, not income. I understand that any investment can be gone tomorrow, but three mutual funds all going to zero??? Even if I did invest in dividend paying stocks, to which I am not averse, I would just reinvest the dividends anyway. If that were to give me better growth long term, I would be fine with that.

Go to the 21 minute mark & listen. Whole thing is good, but it makes the point about dividends vs growth.

Casey TableTennis said:

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If a company can consistently and predictably grow profits faster to an their cost of capital, paying a dividend is flat out foolish. So is thinking a company can always grow faster than their cost of capital.

There is no magic bullet in investing and those guys sound fanatical. Without looking them up, they are in my view either selling their thesis to the world like DeepFingValue or costing themselves wealth over multi-decade periods.

For the record, I firmly believe value stocks/dividend investing are poised for a period of material out performance.

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Did you watch the entire episode? Why is paying a dividend "flat out foolish"? Can you refute their data?

What do you define as "costing themselves wealth over multi decades periods"? That there tells me you didn't listen to the podcast.

Many people don't have their money working hard. Why? Didn't you, in the collective, work hard for your money? Shouldn't it do the same for you?

12thMan9 said:

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Casey TableTennis said:

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If a company can consistently and predictably grow profits faster to an their cost of capital, paying a dividend is flat out foolish. So is thinking a company can always grow faster than their cost of capital.

There is no magic bullet in investing and those guys sound fanatical. Without looking them up, they are in my view either selling their thesis to the world like DeepFingValue or costing themselves wealth over multi-decade periods.

For the record, I firmly believe value stocks/dividend investing are poised for a period of material out performance.

---

Did you watch the entire episode? Why is paying a dividend "flat out foolish"? Can you refute their data?

What do you define as "costing themselves wealth over multi decades periods"? That there tells me you didn't listen to the podcast.

Many people don't have their money working hard. Why? Didn't you, in the collective, work hard for your money? Shouldn't it do the same for you?

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I listened to about a minute from the time stamp you suggested, not the whole video. I'll do more if I find the time and report back if I feel different.

Here is my stance. Seeking dividends to too high a degree over growth, or growth to too high a degree over dividends is wrong economically for most. This is true in my view even though behaviorally it is absolutely appropriate for some. When there are liquidity demands, growth oriented investing can be very stressful to investment results. When there are low/no liquidity constraints, deemphasizing dividend seeking is typically preferential, and illiquidity offers historically superior returns.

I really hope I don't need to define "costing wealth…". I'm in a different conversation than I thought, if so.

He stated in another thread that...

Quote:

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The guy on the left is a friend of mine. He also is handling my rollover 401K & my wife's small inheritance she recently received.

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wanderer said:

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12thMan9 said:

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You know what a dividend is, correct?

Dividends are cash payments to you, mostly quarterly, that reflect the overall strength of a company & their business model. Free cash flow to the holders, a tangible value one receives versus share price growth/decline. It is the truest form/representation of what is going on w/that particular company.

Are there things to watch? By all means, but if the dividends are being produced by the operations of the organization, netted out, then you have an income stream.

I posted a link to a couple of guys, 1 is a friend, called Mail Box Money. It's a really good podcast, it's on another thread here somewhere.

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OK boss

These magical dividend (cash payments) are still made by publicly traded companies in the form of STOCK.....in the MARKET. Based upon your reply, this may come as a surprise to you, but a stock price can very easily drop by as much (or much more) as the dividend payment.

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WTF are you talking about? My quarterly dividends go into my cash account EVERY quarter since 2002. And they have grown as the publically traded company continues to reward shareholders w/good fiscal practices, strategic growth, and continued strong demand for their services.

Now, go back to the kids table.

Can I get the guy on the lefts contact info so I too can get some sweet dividend funds in my cash account?

Thanks, those reinforce my point.

https://advisor.morganstanley.com/christopher.f.poch/documents/field/p/po/poch-christopher-francis/WhyDividendsMatter.pdf

Maybe this helps you understand even more.

Should have put it all in AAPL in 2019.

Bogleheads 3 fund today………$215,743.00

AAPL………………………..……$584,821.00


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