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Drillers - What Is A Modern Success Rate?

3,699 Views | 15 Replies | Last: 4 yr ago by Ulrich
Madman
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AG
I was at a party this weekend and an O&G lawyer made the claim that modern drillers are successful almost 100% of the time when drilling and that historically it might have been as low as 1 in 5.

Is this accurate?
birdman
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They aren't successful 100% of the time now. They can break off, screw up the frac, or any other problems.
Madman
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AG
In terms of drilling a well that could produce what success rate would be an accurate number to use as a guide?
PeekingDuck
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AG
It is very close to 100% for major operators.
BigTex07
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AG
If you are referring to North America unconventionals (shale plays) then yes, the success rate is near 100%. As birdman mentioned you could still have hole problems while drilling or problems with the completion. Historically the success rate in conventional exploratory wells is probably 20-30% as you said. This is still the case in the US with areas such as deepwater exploration. Once the extents of a conventional field are established the success rate for in-field drilling is much higher.
Ulrich
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Sounds like he's comparing drilling into a known formation vs exploratory drilling.
RK
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AG
define "success".

and are we talking actual drilling (mechanical)...or reservoir/discovery?
Illustrious Potentate
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AG
I remember when we used to have to wait on geology to look at the OH logs to give us the green light to set pipe. Now we've got cement for the casing job loaded on location 3-4 days before we come off bottom at TD.
BrokeAssAggie
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BigTex07 said:

If you are referring to North America unconventionals (shale plays) then yes, the success rate is near 100%. As birdman mentioned you could still have hole problems while drilling or problems with the completion. Historically the success rate in conventional exploratory wells is probably 20-30% as you said. This is still the case in the US with areas such as deepwater exploration. Once the extents of a conventional field are established the success rate for in-field drilling is much higher.
This is correct. An exploration well in the Lower Tertiary can have a dry hole cost of ~$200MM to $300MM, with a chance of commercial success of 20% to 30%. Pretty crazy when you think about the dollars at risk and the odds, but the payout can be HUGE in a discovery.
Madman
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AG
Can you break down what that $300M might be spent on in rough terms. This much to X that much to Y.

Just ballpark.
BrokeAssAggie
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Madman said:

Can you break down what that $300M might be spent on in rough terms. This much to X that much to Y.

Just ballpark.
The spread rate on a drill ship can be over $600K a day. A lower tertiary well can take 4 to 6 months to drill. That does not include all the costs associated with casing, logging, etc.
drill4oil78
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AG
Had a deep water exploration project with a spread rate at close to $1MM a day,10+ ye ars ago. Used to tell the geologist the meter to the taxi was running at $700 minute.
jja79
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AG
Not to sidetrack this thread but since this looks like a production thread I've got a question for production types.

What is the typical fluctuation in production for most wells?

I found out 18 months ago my dad had owned mineral rights for some lots he had bought and sold in Midland 50 years ago. Lucky me I've now got a tiny and I mean tiny interest in these 3 wells. They've been producing since January and have varied from 48,500 bbl one month to 1,000 bbl 6 months later. Most months have been 35,000 bbl or so. Is that big a swing normal?
Agman
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AG
Well can go down for maintenance for a while
sts7049
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AG
could be many explanations for that. maybe a maintenance issue, could be shut in for interference testing, sales constraints. hard to say.
birdman
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As mentioned, you can have drop offs for lots of mechanical reasons.

That sounds like a pretty steep decline curve on new well. You got 1,500 barrels per day at the beginning. That flush production drops off quickly. Although, dropping to 30 barrels per day seems extreme. I suspect they are repairing something.

They could also be fracing the neighboring well. They might shut down your well while they frac it.
Ulrich
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That's what I was thinking.
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