Business & Investing
Sponsored by

Time to unwind

20,743 Views | 133 Replies | Last: 3 yr ago by Charlie Murphy
Bocephus
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Took a lot of profits and sold off multiple positions today. You can't time it but it is getting close

http://www.aei.org/publication/the-bond-market-and-the-stock-market-cannot-both-be-right/
AggieMainland
How long do you want to ignore this user?
When everything crashes. I will sleep well at night. I'm ready.
Quinn
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Never anything wrong with taking profits and doing what you're comfortable with, but how many times have people said "all the easy money has been made" over the last 10 years?
cjsag94
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
That article is terrible and why so many investors miss so much of the market's returns.

First, currency plays and other functional reasons lead to negative yields. It's not simply paying to keep my money safe. Read this for some info https://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/negative-bond-yield.asp.

Second, yield curve inversion sometimes predicts recessions, but a couple of facts. First, it's the 2-year vs 10-year that should be evaluated, which is not currently inverted. However, even when that accurately precedes a recession, it is usually a year to a year and a half prior.

And finally, the problem with articles like this and so many other talking heads, is that he concluded the writing by giving himself a get out of jail free card. Making sure, while he's certainly suggesting the stock market is soon to crash, he left it open that all of this could be wrong and the market keeps moving ahead.

So... What's your plan moving forward?
O'Doyle Rules
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
But but this board says there are no bubbles, the economy is healthy, and stocks will continue to go up. 2007 all over again...but worse.
cjsag94
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
This economy is healthy. And a recession is coming. Stocks will go up and down to caring degrees. The problem is that too many people act (write articles about) like there are these magic indicators that you can just watch and they tell you what to do and when to do it. Almost all of them are mistimed. But that doesn't matter, it only matters that they can say i told you so.

There have been no shortage of people telling you why to get out for years now. I know people who never got in after Obama was elected because they were so sure he was going to wreck the economy.

The market will crash... But statistics prove time and time again that you are most likely to get significantly lower returns by selling out, and waiting to get back in. The market goes up far more days than it goes down. We may have a 20% crash any day... But have you won if the market is up 20% immediately preceding that?
oldarmy1
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Bocephus said:

Took a lot of profits and sold off multiple positions today. You can't time it but it is getting close

http://www.aei.org/publication/the-bond-market-and-the-stock-market-cannot-both-be-right/
So a failed breakout after two attempts, a reverse head & shoulder with break to new highs? Right now it reads like the trigger has been hit, the fuse is lit and a trend upward is beginning.
aggiebq03+
How long do you want to ignore this user?
cjsag94 said:

We may have a 20% crash any day... But have you won if the market is up 20% immediately preceding that?

No, you haven't won in that case.

Because:
$100 x 1.2 = $120
$120 x 0.8 = $96
$96 < $100


But I agree with the rest of your post.
cjsag94
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
aggiebq03+ said:

cjsag94 said:

We may have a 20% crash any day... But have you won if the market is up 20% immediately preceding that?

No, you haven't won in that case.

Because:
$100 x 1.2 = $120
$120 x 0.8 = $96
$96 < $100


But I agree with the rest of your post.


I agree and understand that math you presented.

I was making the general/simplified point that jumping in and out only works if you miss more down than up.. which is unlikely. And even more unlikely that you don't miss some of the rebound after the loss.

I'm still curious what OPs plan from here is .. that part never seems to be discussed amongst the time to get out proponents.
PFG
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Wait.

People are still trying to time the market?

I thought we all decided that was for dumbs.
AggieMainland
How long do you want to ignore this user?
When the market crashes in the next 4 months, I will be sure to bump this and laugh at all the people that though it was different this time. Good luck.
jmcfar_98
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Should be fun to review in a couple of months.
Baby Billy
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
AggieMainland said:

When the market crashes in the next 4 months, I will be sure to bump this and laugh at all the people that though it was different this time. Good luck.

lawless89
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Soooooooooo not a good time to buy?
redsox34
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
All time highs are typically followed by more all time highs ..
cjsag94
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
AggieMainland said:

When the market crashes in the next 4 months, I will be sure to bump this and laugh at all the people that though it was different this time. Good luck.


But will you bump it in 4 months if the market hasn't crashed? Or did what happened last November/December and May where it did drop sharply, but recovered so quickly while everyone waited to "feel better" that you lost more?

No... That wouldn't be something you could laugh at.

FYI, it's 50/50 what happens to the market over the next 4 months, but odds are against betting on a sustained drop.
bmks270
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Like 90% of stock gains come from ten trading days per year, I'm staying long forever.
bmks270
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Huell Babineaux said:

AggieMainland said:

When the market crashes in the next 4 months, I will be sure to bump this and laugh at all the people that though it was different this time. Good luck.



My coworker who is a hobby economist told me the bond market is inverted but all the other "indicators" are bullish and different from past recession cycles.

How many samples are there with the yield curve? 4 or 5? It could be random coincidence.
Baby Billy
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
redsox34 said:

All time highs are ALWAYS followed by more all time highs ..


FIFY
iluvpoker
How long do you want to ignore this user?
2019 will continue to be a good year for the market. It won't be straight up, but the stock market will hit new highs in December.

2020 is interesting as the Democrats will try to tank the market next Summer/Fall. But unless Trump gets out over his skis this year, then I think he has enough bullets in his tool belt to keep the economy up and get reelected.

His reelection should set up the following 4 years to be good for the market, as he likes to burn the candle at both ends, tax cuts and spending. I predict the Dow in 2024 will be in the 35k-40k range.

2025 is setting up to be a major recession. I think it will rival the 2008-09 recession.

Someone bookmark this thread and let me know how I did.
Bocephus
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
cjsag94 said:

aggiebq03+ said:

cjsag94 said:

We may have a 20% crash any day... But have you won if the market is up 20% immediately preceding that?

No, you haven't won in that case.

Because:
$100 x 1.2 = $120
$120 x 0.8 = $96
$96 < $100


But I agree with the rest of your post.


I agree and understand that math you presented.

I was making the general/simplified point that jumping in and out only works if you miss more down than up.. which is unlikely. And even more unlikely that you don't miss some of the rebound after the loss.

I'm still curious what OPs plan from here is .. that part never seems to be discussed amongst the time to get out proponents.


First, I thought the correction was gonna happen in July (now). I was obviously wrong on that. I know you can't go to a conference in the financial industry right now without some telling you to plan for a recession in 2020.

For the person who asked, my plan is to stay in cash until certain stocks I like reach the price points I want and then buy back in.
cjsag94
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
What if they don't reach that point?
TxAg20
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Title reminds me of "Time to buy HDY" thread.
khkman22
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
AggieMainland said:

When the market crashes in the next 4 months, I will be sure to bump this and laugh at all the people that though it was different this time. Good luck.
Looks like we found Monarch's sock. ORANGE MAN BAD!!
Baby Billy
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
cjsag94 said:

What if they don't reach that point?

Then he'll never invest again!
Bocephus
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
cjsag94 said:

What if they don't reach that point?


Then I will be happy with the profits I made and find different stocks to invest in
TheCougarHunter
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Every day there's an article about an "upcoming crash" and 99% are clickbait. People trying to get views are going to make outrageous claims in order to do so.

Three words for everyone on here:

Dollar Cost Averaging
pfo
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Exactly what a friend of mine said in 2011 at Dow 11,000. "The easy money's been made. I'm selling out and will get back in after the crash at 7,000". He never got back in and missed a triple!
Boat Shoes
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Bocephus said:

Took a lot of profits and sold off multiple positions today. You can't time it but it is getting close

http://www.aei.org/publication/the-bond-market-and-the-stock-market-cannot-both-be-right/


So where are you putting your money? Mattress?
Bocephus
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
pfo said:

Exactly what a friend of mine said in 2011 at Dow 11,000. "The easy money's been made. I'm selling out and will get back in after the crash at 7,000". He never got back in and missed a triple!


The market crashed in 2008 and I increased my deductions. I quintupled my money in two years. I've been waiting for a crash for a while. Hopefully it is coming soon. If not, I will adjust
cjsag94
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Just for point of reference (to give perspective when this gets bumped in 4 months), SPY traded at $298.63/sh at noon on the date of OP (18 minutes prior to posting). Should have 1 ex-div date paying ~ $1.43/sh in that time. Let's see how this works out.

Oh, and SPY was at $296.70 when Desmond Lachman posted the linked article to his website.
permabull
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
cjsag94
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
TheCougarHunter said:

Every day there's an article about an "upcoming crash" and 99% are clickbait. People trying to get views are going to make outrageous claims in order to do so.

Three words for everyone on here:

Dollar Cost Averaging


For what it's worth, statistically, dollar cost averaging is a bad idea. Same point as so many on here have stated... Up days significantly outpace down days. Dollar cost averaging only wins in prolonged down swings. It has been proven to be a psychological security blanket.. but usually a bad investment strategy.

Not always, but usually.

And, to be clear, I'm talking dollar cost averaging money you have availablerather than lump sum investing... Not systematic investing where you invest monthly as the money comes available (401k from paycheck). For the later, you have no choice.
oldarmy1
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
oldarmy1 said:

Bocephus said:

Took a lot of profits and sold off multiple positions today. You can't time it but it is getting close

http://www.aei.org/publication/the-bond-market-and-the-stock-market-cannot-both-be-right/
So a failed breakout after two attempts, a reverse head & shoulder with break to new highs? Right now it reads like the trigger has been hit, the fuse is lit and a trend upward is beginning.
Stocks have traded sideways to down since Sept 2018, only getting back to even for most who held through it. The thought of selling out just as actual returns are breaking out is kinda weird - and EVERYONE knows I'm not a buy/hold forever guy.

What I wrote is 100% correct. The push upward began this week and now with todays close we'll see dip buying on trend for the next couple of months. I'll take a look then at all the dynamics.
DallasAggie0
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Call it the Soarin Twenties

Last Page
Page 1 of 4
 
×
subscribe Verify your student status
See Subscription Benefits
Trial only available to users who have never subscribed or participated in a previous trial.