There is nothing that says that we have to have a recession every 7 to 10 years, several countries have had longer runs. Not every correction needs to hit the definition of "recession".


I believe that low unemployment is typical at the top of a market cycle and it is not a good indicator for continued growth. I would actually say that there is less excess labor capacity to facilitate continued 'low hanging' growth.

SoupNazi2001 said:

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Bonfire1996 said:

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During 2016. Due to the change in how GDP was calculated to include both government deficit spending and R&D expenditure add back.

This economy is not showing signs of being in year 10+ of a growth cycle. The FED raising rates and tightening the balance sheet would have thrown a teetering economy into trouble. This damn economy has legs. Job growth is rocking and inflation is low.

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We had nothing close to a recession in 2016. The Fed is extending this cycle with QE and continued low rates. We had a 0% Fed Funds rate for 7 years and then they took 3 years to raise the Fed Funds rate to a whopping 2.5%. No one knows how this grand monetary policy experiment will end but all central banks around the world are doing the same thing. Japan and Europe are in worse shape with negative rates and we will see negative rates here the next recession we have.

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What in the world are you talking about?

QT is occurring, not QE. The base is the lowest its been since 2012. The Fed continues to take money out of the economy. Go look at the chart.