Assuming your class year is 12 given your handle, you'll be fine.

I moved $75,000 cash into the market 15 days ago. Dumbest thing I've done in years.

The people that are in longterm need to look away. The people that have cash should be starting to smell opportunity. The people that were over exposed knew better. No one should be surprised.

Waiting to see how low the drop goes before I make my $5500 for 2017 Roth Contribution. Also have considerable cash ready in case a true crash occurs.

So we're back to where we were in November. Big deal.

WestTexAg12 said:

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My biggest regret is that I have no cash so I can buy at the dip

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What has dipped so low that it is looking like a bargain now? Nothing I'm into is down far enough to make me jump. Maybe UA in the 11s and keeping my eye on TAP. Haven't seen anything else that jumped out at me.

If this is the beginning of a bear market which I doubt you will have several months to get out before the real decline occurs. You are currently seeing weak hands get washed out. I have seen many drops since the late 70's and early 80's and studied many bear markets after WWII and you always have 3-4 months to get out on a rally even after a significant drop. Never make a decision on these fast drops they are generally corrections. There will generally be rallies up to the old highs or near the highs and then you can figure out then whether you want out. Bull markets generally don't end like the drop we have had the past 10 days. This drop was expected with the sentiment and margin debt at record highs. The market was more over bought than I have ever seen it. It is getting washed out and will take several months to work off the excesses. Would not surprise me that we are at record highs before this year is over, but the market will tell you if you listen.

Personally I think we are in the 8th inning of this bull. We will have one more push up that will probably last a year+ before a bear takes over for a year or two. Don't listen to all the perma bears and bulls on TV. These guys are trying to sell news letters, especially the bears. They are coming out of hibernation after being wrong for 9 years, but now they can tell you they were right like a broken clock is once a day.

Can't time the market (you can try but the odds are very much against you) - if you're truly an investor (meaning long term) your best move is to hold and ride it out.

drill4oil78 said:

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I disagree you can time certain periods in the market like this recent top and the bottom in 2009. Not all the time but st big over bought and over sold periods. You can also see bear markets before they happen if you look for the right things most ignore. Buy and hold will kill you. Look at 2000-2009. Zero return if you held during that period. Hold during bull markets not in bears.especially a secular bear. You generally have a chance to get out of bear markets several times. Bull markets end quietly not on quick flush outs with the media screaming and market mavens coming out of hibernation telling you how smart they are. The market talks to you ... you just have to listen.

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SoupNazi2001 said:

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drill4oil78 said:

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I disagree you can time certain periods in the market like this recent top and the bottom in 2009. Not all the time but st big over bought and over sold periods. You can also see bear markets before they happen if you look for the right things most ignore. Buy and hold will kill you. Look at 2000-2009. Zero return if you held during that period. Hold during bull markets not in bears.especially a secular bear. You generally have a chance to get out of bear markets several times. Bull markets end quietly not on quick flush outs with the media screaming and market mavens coming out of hibernation telling you how smart they are. The market talks to you ... you just have to listen.

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Agree it just takes timing one big bull/bear cycle and deploying lots of capital near the bottom and you can be set for life.

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Or you can just patiently save and invest and let your investments and time work for you. I'm well along that path. Not as sexy, but less risky and more likely to work.

Aggiemike96 said:

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I moved $75,000 cash into the market 15 days ago. Dumbest thing I've done in years.

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Mike, if you graduated in 96 it won't matter one bit. The $75,000 you put to work two weeks ago will end up being one of the best things you have done in years.

Google the investment experiment where the guy invested his retirement money the day before the worst market correction of each year...... every single year. In 40 years his total return was only slightly less than the man who invested on the best day to invest each year.

drill4oil78 said:

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Wrighty said:

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drill4oil78 said:

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I disagree you can time certain periods in the market like this recent top and the bottom in 2009. Not all the time but st big over bought and over sold periods. You can also see bear markets before they happen if you look for the right things most ignore. Buy and hold will kill you. Look at 2000-2009. Zero return if you held during that period. Hold during bull markets not in bears.especially a secular bear. You generally have a chance to get out of bear markets several times. Bull markets end quietly not on quick flush outs with the media screaming and market mavens coming out of hibernation telling you how smart they are. The market talks to you ... you just have to listen.

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Been invested in the market longer than most on this board and studied market movements since WWII and I am doing just fine. In fact I am having a decent time considering I am retired early in my life. History tends to repeat itself and it is those that do not learn from history are the ones that fail. You have to recognize the long term trends and stay with those trends until failure occurs then escape once you recognize the reversal. There is one thing history does tell us and that is the market is up more than down, but those big down moves that can last a year or two takes 4-5 times as long to make up that loss if you hold. If a market is down 50% it takes a 100% move to get back to that original point the drop started. You can never time the exact bottom or top but you can recognize what long term trend you want to be in or out for the majority of that time.

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No, you can't even do that. The dustbin of history is littered with experts who claimed a bear was looming while markets continued growing for years.

The long-term return of the U.S. stock market is approximately 10% including every bear market. That's a great return. Nobody is going to be "killed" by a 10% return. And yet, most individual investors experience below-market returns precisely because they make foolish choices like pick single stocks and play market timing games.

You have no special information. You have no market advantage. The phrase "secular bear" is nonsense. If you control your investment costs and stay in the market, then you will be rich.