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Evaluating: Large Cap, High Returns, Low PE

1,413 Views | 5 Replies | Last: 6 yr ago by DRE06
DRE06
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AG
How do you evaluate large cap stocks that have had huge stock returns but still have a relatively low PE.

Two in particular.
LEA: $10B mkt cap, 29% 1 yr return, 291% 5 yr, P/E of 9.85

AMAT: $47B mkt cap, $38 1 yr, 295% 5 yr, P/E of 18

On the surface, these seem to have room to the upside given their growth and reasonable PE.
Rydyn
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AG

I used to keep a piece of my portfolio as "play money". AMAT was one of my major holdings back in 1998. It had solid fundamentals, and I actually thought that as a silicon equipment manufacturer, it was perfectly aligned with my view of the future. It had a great run, but I got scared and sold it in 1999 at around $40.

Now in 2017, you're saying that it has a low P/E and good returns....at a stock price of $40. Looking back, it hit a high of $60 and a low of $8.

Hmmm...glad I sold.

Ranger222
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AG
I held AMAT earlier this year. Moved from ~33 to 47ish. It moves with the semiconductor stocks such as Micron ($MU).
jrt336
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Room to upside given their growth? Their ability to grow has nothing to do with historical returns.

There are two ways stock price can increase. An increase in earnings or an increase in multiple.

Let's take Lear. Their multiple is above some of their peers, like ADNT, and is probably high relative to its own historical average P/E. probably not much room to rise in multiple given it's cyclicality. Now can it increase earnings? It's margins are better than most already. It probably can't grow revenue much or at all when there are fewer new car sales (look at the numbers the past few months - it's ugly). So I'd think they have not much room to run.
DRE06
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AG
Returns since OP:

LEA: 17.3%
AMAT: 25.2%
S&P 500: 3.3%
DadAG10
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But did you pull the trigger?
DRE06
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AG
I already had positions in both and bought more at the time of my OP.
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