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Buy AMC?

4,163 Views | 37 Replies | Last: 5 yr ago by johnson2012
wcb
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I know next to nothing about stocks but seems like a good time to buy AMC Theatres. They'll rebound at some point. Only question seems to be whether to wait until after Q3 when it could possibly drop lower. I'm guessing Q4 should be decent.
20ag07
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Quote:

They'll rebound at some point.
themissinglink
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Has the change in distribution models of movies/tv decreased their revenue? I would assume with Netflix, hbogo and amazon prime, demand has decreased some. It's much easier for consumers to get entertainment for fairly cheap.

I still think there probably is probably demand for the movie experience and IMAX viewing. I haven't looked at any financials or done any industry research, though.
TXAGFAN
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Awful theaters, they are the in large part why people quit going to theaters over waiting to watch at home. I thought places like Alamo were the future. However, when I look in a market like Houston where they seem to be struggling I think movie theaters, like shopping malls, may be well past their prime.
Burdizzo
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On demand media has resulted in us avoiding the theater. It is cheaper, the concessions are more to our liking, we can pause for bathroom breaks, and we don't have to suffer the crowds.

Last time I took my wife and kids to the movies, it cost about $60 including food. That is three months of Netflix, plus I make damn fine popcorn on the stove.
FarmerJohn
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Quote:

I think movie theaters, like shopping malls, may be well past their prime.
20 years ago the best entertainment was the movies. It was also cheap enough that you had a broad appeal among young people. As more entertainment, and better programming, makes it to On-Demand and broadcast, fewer people go to the theater. So they raise their prices so their cash flow isn't hurt too much. Which forces younger customers to go more on-demand. It's going to be an accelerated cord cutting situation.

So I wouldn't want anything to do with most theaters. My question would be what are their real estate assets and how leveraged are they?
62strat
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Burdizzo said:

On demand media has resulted in us avoiding the theater. It is cheaper, the concessions are more to our liking, we can pause for bathroom breaks, and we don't have to suffer the crowds.

I agree with you, but to play devil's advocate, you could have said that about movie theaters when VHS entered the home, and again when dvd's entered the home. (the snacks/pausing/crowds part). 'On Demand' is arguable.. if you had the vhs/dvd, it was on demand.. if you didn't, you could still go buy it... not quite as fully on demand as ability to either just pull up and watch or buy a movie through netflix, but close.
Burdizzo
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62strat said:

Burdizzo said:

On demand media has resulted in us avoiding the theater. It is cheaper, the concessions are more to our liking, we can pause for bathroom breaks, and we don't have to suffer the crowds.

I agree with you, but to play devil's advocate, you could have said that about movie theaters when VHS entered the home, and again when dvd's entered the home. (the snacks/pausing/crowds part). 'On Demand' is arguable.. if you had the vhs/dvd, it was on demand.. if you didn't, you could still go buy it... not quite as fully on demand as ability to either just pull up and watch or buy a movie through netflix, but close.


Good points, but on-demand is significantly faster and more convenient than renting a VHS or DVD. Plus if you don't like the movie after 30 minutes, there is essentially no penalty for walking out and starting another movie. Notice how Netflix is essentially getting out on the DVD business because the demand is dropping off.

Netflix is to entertainment what Amazon is to retail shopping. It is a convenience issue.
IrishTxAggie
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First studio that goes to on-demand with new releases will destroy the theaters. I would happily pay $30 (probably more) to watch a new release movie from the comfort of my own home w/o sitting in some nasty ass dirty theater seats.

I believe the day is coming sooner rather than later where on-demand new releases are available from the comfort of our own homes.
Burdizzo
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ColinAggie said:

First studio that goes to on-demand with new releases will destroy the theaters. I would happily pay $30 (probably more) to watch a new release movie from the comfort of my own home w/o sitting in some nasty ass dirty theater seats.

I believe the day is coming sooner rather than later where on-demand new releases are available from the comfort of our own homes.


Some of the on-demand services are producing their own content (ie. House of Cards, Narcos, Making a Murderer, etc.) Some are good, some not so good (Fuller House), but Netflix hasn't said that they are going to stop doing it. I have to think they make good money off of their own content. They would not be doing it. And everytime someone binge watches a show, it is another movie they don't watch in the theater.
wcb
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TXAGFAN said:

Awful theaters, they are the in large part why people quit going to theaters over waiting to watch at home.
They just remodeled the one in our town. Huge reclining seats, the works. It's now our goto theater.

The masses will come out in December for Star Wars. Their Q4 numbers should rebound. I'm not looking at long term at this point, simply looking at the short term outlook.
Killin Me Smalls
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I think you guys are missing another important element. The home theater technology is now affordable to the masses. Almost all new home builds have a media room now. My wife and I haven't been to a theater since we saw The Martian with some friends at one of those studio movie grill type places. All-in it was over $140 for the tickets, food, and booze. Screw that! We wait for the blu-ray at Redbox or on-demand and drink our own wine and food on our 120" screen.

I agree with earlier posters, movie theaters are going bye-bye.
Diggity
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While I see a good number of homes being built with media rooms, it's nowhere near "almost all" and many of them go unused. It's definitely more affordable to outfit a room now, but still niche.
SACR
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wcb said:

I know next to nothing about stocks but seems like a good time to buy AMC Theatres. They'll rebound at some point. Only question seems to be whether to wait until after Q3 when it could possibly drop lower. I'm guessing Q4 should be decent.
You prove your first statement by trying to argue people should attempt market timing on a stock.
Dr. Horrible
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After my first experience this weekend at an AMC in about a decade, I'd stay far away. Talk about a miserable experience.
Ag81Golf
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ColinAggie said:

First studio that goes to on-demand with new releases will destroy the theaters. I would happily pay $30 (probably more) to watch a new release movie from the comfort of my own home w/o sitting in some nasty ass dirty theater seats.

I believe the day is coming sooner rather than later where on-demand new releases are available from the comfort of our own homes.

100% this!
Factor in the cost of tickets, drinks, food and you $30.00 is more than reasonable. There is a reason why the NFL, MLB and NBA havery the highest per person entertainment cost. Movie theaters will never be that high but more people would rather watch entertainment in the comfort of their own homes as opposed to fighting the crowds.
Ulrich
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I think the event aspect of going to the movies is getting overlooked. It's something to do to get out of the house and turn a movie in to more of an experience, so I don't think it's going away. I'm not arguing for the quality of the viewing experience itself, more that there's something to getting dressed, going out, meeting friends, eating dinner, walking into a garish palace dedicated to the event, and seeing a spectacle with a crowd. Committing time and having the buildup enhances the enjoyment.

Plus, some of you are talking about how common media rooms are now, but that's still a top 5-10% thing to have. 90% of people have a tv on the wall in the living room. The movie theater is cleaner/nicer/ better than most people's living situation.
Ag13
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AMC was getting ripped on the movie pass news and their response. But I have a feeling in the long run (if they accept the Movie Pass cards) this is going to be great for the stock. Attendance will increase inevitably and they get paid full price on tickets. Will also make more on concessions with a bigger audience.
Out in Left Field
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I'm porbably pretty atypical, but the last three movies I've seen in a theater are:
Star Wars VII (2015)
Rogue One (2016)
Dunkirk (2017)
redsox34
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Anyone thinking about a mean reversion play?

The 200 MA is 120% above the current price. From what I have observed, this typically doesn't last and a counter rally should be coming. A very recent example is HTZ.

Edit: As a side note, I drove by one on Sunday and the parking lot was incredibly packed.
double aught
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Killin Me Smalls said:

Almost all new home builds have a media room now.
No they don't.
badharambe
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yes. i agree. i picked up some AMC today at 12.6, SL at 12

Check out the CBI chart, seems to be similar to HTZ as well..
JSKolache
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They'll be gone in 5 years.
redsox34
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Nice!

I think I am going to wait just a little bit longer on AMC. Let it go horizontal some before jumping in.

I am thinking about some CBI options tomorrow though. Surprisingly, pretty decent liquidity there.
wcb
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badharambe said:

yes. i agree. i picked up some AMC today at 12.6, SL at 12

Check out the CBI chart, seems to be similar to HTZ as well..
Up 4% a day later. Nice. It hits 12 again and I'll likely grab some.
redsox34
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It tried to get rolling today, being up 5% at one point, but finished +2%.
redsox34
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badharambe said:

yes. i agree. i picked up some AMC today at 12.6, SL at 12

Check out the CBI chart, seems to be similar to HTZ as well..

Hope you are still in this! Looking to be a very nice trade.
wcb
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I should probably go ahead and buy. Was waiting for one more dip down to 12. Looks like the upswing has begun.
redsox34
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That's exactly what I was thinking. I don't want to get caught chasing though. Tough choice.

FTR is another mean reversion candidate too if you haven't seen that chart.
badharambe
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Im still in, actually added last week when it dipped back down to 13.
wcb
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Slowly climbing...
Agnzona
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The real problem is lack of new original content. Movies are old school TV is where all the good talent and money is moving. I see them doing more live events like concerts but that and the occasional big blockbuster are not enough traffic.
badharambe
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i sold out at 17$ on 9/15.
looking for dip back to low 14's
wcb
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Today's your day. I'm finally getting in under 14.
wcb
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10 months later I'm up 37%. Not crazy but still a decent return. I was hoping to see it double.

Hang on? Jump ship? Just curious to hear what some of you others that bought are doing.
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