occurs if worldwide passenger car production goes electric vs combustion engine (excluding heavy equipment and larger tow capacity pickup truck s)?
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How much of a drop in oil demand...
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Last: 6 yr ago by lead
The US uses 28% of its energy consumption for transportation and roughly 92% of that is fossil fuels, so you can make a rough extrapolation from that.
i read an article today that over 40% of transporation demand is commercial, and that is growing, as opposed to consumer, which has plateaued.
1.3 Billion passenger cars worldwide. 60 million cars produced yearly.
If we started magically producing 100% electric cars in all factories, it would take 22 years to replace the fleet, and that's assuming zero demand growth.
If we started magically producing 100% electric cars in all factories, it would take 22 years to replace the fleet, and that's assuming zero demand growth.
The better question... how much demand will this induce in the natural gas markets?
Until electric cars can solve driving distance issues, I would rather have a natural gas car. I have a conventional gasoline powered 2014 Ford Taurus with all the bells and whistles that I can drive over 500 miles on a full tank of gas (freeway driving, not street driving). With an electric car, how many times would I have to recharge to do that? Can an electric car get me from Houston to Dallas on a full charge and if not where do I I stop to recharge and how long does it take to recharge once I get there? In most electric cars on the market, if not all, I can't get myself from Klein to Aggieland and back for a football game. At least with natural gas I can make those trips plus I know where there are refuling stations in metro Dallas and Houston ( I don't know about College Station).
Get my point?
Get my point?
has anybody done a study of the effect on the power grid IF tens of millions of cars and trucks were hooked up to the grid recharging every night ? We already have serious summer brown outs due the A/C surge we get during a heat wave in the yankee states and even in some areas on Texas. All of the "pie in the sky" unicorn fart utopian bilge about electric cars always seems to neglect the need for charging infrastructure and generating power required in order to make this fantasyland happen.
monarch said:
Until electric cars can solve driving distance issues, I would rather have a natural gas car. I have a conventional gasoline powered 2014 Ford Taurus with all the bells and whistles that I can drive over 500 miles on a full tank of gas (freeway driving, not street driving). With an electric car, how many times would I have to recharge to do that? Can an electric car get me from Houston to Dallas on a full charge and if not where do I I stop to recharge and how long does it take to recharge once I get there? In most electric cars on the market, if not all, I can't get myself from Klein to Aggieland and back for a football game. At least with natural gas I can make those trips plus I know where there are refuling stations in metro Dallas and Houston ( I don't know about College Station).
Get my point?
The Tesla Model 3 has a stated range of 215 Miles. That gets you to South Dallas. My guess is you will be able to get more than 215 miles with cruise control on at 70 mph that might get you to Plano, but assuming you don't there are Superchargers in Huntsville and Corsicana. It will take about 45 minutes to get a full charge at a supercharger, but you could easily get to Anywhere in Dallas with a 15 minute charge.
With a 215 mile range, you can easily get from Klein to CS and back on a single charge with plenty to spare.
Much of the world is not as spread out as the US. Much of the world also has cheap trains and flights to get from place to place as well. Not saying I disagree with your opinion - I love the 600+ mile range on my F150 - but there's more to it than the US perspective.
Obviously, you know more about this than I do. Do you own an electric car or if not, would buy one in the future?
Not sure who you're replying to. I do not own one but I would consider one for a commuter vehicle. I am employed in O&G though so I probably won't buy one until they are ubiquitous.
I don't own an electric car. I plan to buy a Model 3 as soon as they are available. If you haven't tested a Model S, I highly recommend it. It is easily the best car on the market (obviously just my opinion)
I'll try it from a different angle..
Does anybody know , or have experience, as to what owning an electric and charging it every night after a full days use will do to your electric bill ? If it adds $100-$200 a month then the so-called gas savings kinda goes away. I know what a pool adds so surely someone knows what charging a car costs.
Does anybody know , or have experience, as to what owning an electric and charging it every night after a full days use will do to your electric bill ? If it adds $100-$200 a month then the so-called gas savings kinda goes away. I know what a pool adds so surely someone knows what charging a car costs.
The biggest battery in a Tesla is 100 kWh. At $0.10/kWh that's $10 for a "full tank". If you have an electricity plan with free nights and weekends or a lower rate, it could be cheaper.
Here are some other people sharing their math as well:
https://forums.tesla.com/forum/forums/how-much-does-it-cost-fully-charge-model-s-85
The EPA range for the 100 kWh battery is 335 miles. Let's call it 300 for normal people. At $10 for 300 miles, that's $0.033/mile.
A Prius gets 52 mpg combined, call it 50 for simplicity. 50 miles for a gallon of gas at $2.00/gal is $0.04/mile. If gas goes to $2.50/gal, youre at $0.05/mile.
An F150 gets about 20 mpg on a good day. Realistically more like 18, but we'll call it 20. That puts it at $0.10/mile for $2 gas and $0.125/mile at $2.50 gas.
Here are some other people sharing their math as well:
https://forums.tesla.com/forum/forums/how-much-does-it-cost-fully-charge-model-s-85
The EPA range for the 100 kWh battery is 335 miles. Let's call it 300 for normal people. At $10 for 300 miles, that's $0.033/mile.
A Prius gets 52 mpg combined, call it 50 for simplicity. 50 miles for a gallon of gas at $2.00/gal is $0.04/mile. If gas goes to $2.50/gal, youre at $0.05/mile.
An F150 gets about 20 mpg on a good day. Realistically more like 18, but we'll call it 20. That puts it at $0.10/mile for $2 gas and $0.125/mile at $2.50 gas.
Kiddoc on the auto board has one. It is on a separate meter, so the numbers he has are the true numbers.
He seems to love it.
https://texags.com/forums/46/topics/2375466/5
He seems to love it.
https://texags.com/forums/46/topics/2375466/5
GarlandAg2012 said:
The biggest battery in a Tesla is 100 kWh. At $0.10/kWh that's $10 for a "full tank". If you have an electricity plan with free nights and weekends or a lower rate, it could be cheaper.
Here are some other people sharing their math as well:
https://forums.tesla.com/forum/forums/how-much-does-it-cost-fully-charge-model-s-85
The EPA range for the 100 kWh battery is 335 miles. Let's call it 300 for normal people. At $10 for 300 miles, that's $0.033/mile.
A Prius gets 52 mpg combined, call it 50 for simplicity. 50 miles for a gallon of gas at $2.00/gal is $0.04/mile. If gas goes to $2.50/gal, youre at $0.05/mile.
An F150 gets about 20 mpg on a good day. Realistically more like 18, but we'll call it 20. That puts it at $0.10/mile for $2 gas and $0.125/mile at $2.50 gas.
The Model S P100D also goes 0-60 in 2.3 seconds. The Prius does it in about 10 seconds.
A Ferrari F430 goes 0-60 in 3.5 seconds and gets like 10MPG... And will probably leak oil all over your garage.
This is true. Although doing so probably reduces your range significantly.
1876er said:monarch said:
Until electric cars can solve driving distance issues, I would rather have a natural gas car. I have a conventional gasoline powered 2014 Ford Taurus with all the bells and whistles that I can drive over 500 miles on a full tank of gas (freeway driving, not street driving). With an electric car, how many times would I have to recharge to do that? Can an electric car get me from Houston to Dallas on a full charge and if not where do I I stop to recharge and how long does it take to recharge once I get there? In most electric cars on the market, if not all, I can't get myself from Klein to Aggieland and back for a football game. At least with natural gas I can make those trips plus I know where there are refuling stations in metro Dallas and Houston ( I don't know about College Station).
Get my point?
The Tesla Model 3 has a stated range of 215 Miles. That gets you to South Dallas. My guess is you will be able to get more than 215 miles with cruise control on at 70 mph that might get you to Plano, but assuming you don't there are Superchargers in Huntsville and Corsicana. It will take about 45 minutes to get a full charge at a supercharger, but you could easily get to Anywhere in Dallas with a 15 minute charge.
With a 215 mile range, you can easily get from Klein to CS and back on a single charge with plenty to spare.
If it is as they tout the Tesla 3 could be a game changer, IF they can fill the demand
Yep. Will be very interesting to see how a mass produced non-luxury Tesla will hold up. The Model 3 will be bought by a pretty different demographic set from the Model S and X.The Original AG 76 said:1876er said:monarch said:
Until electric cars can solve driving distance issues, I would rather have a natural gas car. I have a conventional gasoline powered 2014 Ford Taurus with all the bells and whistles that I can drive over 500 miles on a full tank of gas (freeway driving, not street driving). With an electric car, how many times would I have to recharge to do that? Can an electric car get me from Houston to Dallas on a full charge and if not where do I I stop to recharge and how long does it take to recharge once I get there? In most electric cars on the market, if not all, I can't get myself from Klein to Aggieland and back for a football game. At least with natural gas I can make those trips plus I know where there are refuling stations in metro Dallas and Houston ( I don't know about College Station).
Get my point?
The Tesla Model 3 has a stated range of 215 Miles. That gets you to South Dallas. My guess is you will be able to get more than 215 miles with cruise control on at 70 mph that might get you to Plano, but assuming you don't there are Superchargers in Huntsville and Corsicana. It will take about 45 minutes to get a full charge at a supercharger, but you could easily get to Anywhere in Dallas with a 15 minute charge.
With a 215 mile range, you can easily get from Klein to CS and back on a single charge with plenty to spare.
If it is as they tout the Tesla 3 could be a game changer, IF they can fill the demand
The Original AG 76 said:
has anybody done a study of the effect on the power grid IF tens of millions of cars and trucks were hooked up to the grid recharging every night ? We already have serious summer brown outs due the A/C surge we get during a heat wave in the yankee states and even in some areas on Texas. All of the "pie in the sky" unicorn fart utopian bilge about electric cars always seems to neglect the need for charging infrastructure and generating power required in order to make this fantasyland happen.
If everyone wants to charge their electric vehicle at 3 PM on a hot summer's day, then we have a grid problem. If recharging is primarily at night, then our existing grid could support millions of electric vehicles.
Take the Texas ERCOT gird, for example. On a typical night, the grid conservatively has 10,000 - 12,500 MW of excess generation capacity available. A Tesla Supercharger will pull 125 kW. So on a given night, you could run about 80,000 - 100,000 Tesla chargers simultaneously. It takes about 30 minutes to fully charge a vehicle, so that's maybe 900,000 vehicles you could charge between the hours of midnight and 5 AM. And that's just Texas.
A general answer is about 5-10% change of a market causes disruption.
So if the US gasoline demand drops 5-10%, from (roughly) 10MM a day to 9MM a day, you would start disrupting the market (gasoline).
To put that in perspective, that would be about 3-5 refineries output (in the US).
How do you replace it? I think it can be a couple of different things, but electric and increased MPG will do it.
~egon
So if the US gasoline demand drops 5-10%, from (roughly) 10MM a day to 9MM a day, you would start disrupting the market (gasoline).
To put that in perspective, that would be about 3-5 refineries output (in the US).
How do you replace it? I think it can be a couple of different things, but electric and increased MPG will do it.
~egon
Yes, I did a calculation in another thread.The Original AG 76 said:
has anybody done a study of the effect on the power grid IF tens of millions of cars and trucks were hooked up to the grid recharging every night ? We already have serious summer brown outs due the A/C surge we get during a heat wave in the yankee states and even in some areas on Texas. All of the "pie in the sky" unicorn fart utopian bilge about electric cars always seems to neglect the need for charging infrastructure and generating power required in order to make this fantasyland happen.
https://texags.com/forums/57/topics/2531141/replies/49099946
Based on Garland Ag's cost/mile estimates you would need to drive 200-300 thousand miles before reaching cost parity on a $35k tesla model 3 and a $29k Toyota Prius? Vs. a $25k Chevy Malibu that gets 30 mpg on a four cylinder you reach cost parity between 100 and 125k miles with $2.50 gas. That also assumes no maintenance and repair costs but also doesn't include lost opportunity costs either. The Tesla model 3 will have made significant strides in being competitive economically vs IC cars, but isn't here yet.
The sport sedan tesla's don't compare on a cost basis at all, nor should they as a luxury vehicle.
The sport sedan tesla's don't compare on a cost basis at all, nor should they as a luxury vehicle.
a model 3 isn't going to prevent me from getting laid like a Prius or a camary would.Dirt 05 said:
Based on Garland Ag's cost/mile estimates you would need to drive 200-300 thousand miles before reaching cost parity on a $35k tesla model 3 and a $29k Toyota Prius? Vs. a $25k Chevy Malibu that gets 30 mpg on a four cylinder you reach cost parity between 100 and 125k miles with $2.50 gas. That also assumes no maintenance and repair costs but also doesn't include lost opportunity costs either. The Tesla model 3 will have made significant strides in being competitive economically vs IC cars, but isn't here yet.
The sport sedan tesla's don't compare on a cost basis at all, nor should they as a luxury vehicle.
That's an interesting way of looking at it, and goes to show how much the current $7,500 tax credit on the Tesla stacks the deck in favor of the Model 3.
Also, I decided to check your price on the Malibu and was pleasantly surprised by how nicely equipped you can get a Malibu for $25k. I wouldn't really want to drive it but you can get an LT with convenience and driver assist packages for around that.
Also, I decided to check your price on the Malibu and was pleasantly surprised by how nicely equipped you can get a Malibu for $25k. I wouldn't really want to drive it but you can get an LT with convenience and driver assist packages for around that.
GarlandAg2012 said:
The biggest battery in a Tesla is 100 kWh. At $0.10/kWh that's $10 for a "full tank". If you have an electricity plan with free nights and weekends or a lower rate, it could be cheaper.
Here are some other people sharing their math as well:
https://forums.tesla.com/forum/forums/how-much-does-it-cost-fully-charge-model-s-85
The EPA range for the 100 kWh battery is 335 miles. Let's call it 300 for normal people. At $10 for 300 miles, that's $0.033/mile.
A Prius gets 52 mpg combined, call it 50 for simplicity. 50 miles for a gallon of gas at $2.00/gal is $0.04/mile. If gas goes to $2.50/gal, youre at $0.05/mile.
An F150 gets about 20 mpg on a good day. Realistically more like 18, but we'll call it 20. That puts it at $0.10/mile for $2 gas and $0.125/mile at $2.50 gas.
Until demand goes through the roof if electric cars become more popular... I promise that TXU will not be giving away free electricity during the new peak demand and it's not going to be .10/kWh either.
RE: the first few posts of this thread, here's an interesting resource for observing energy splits and trends: https://flowcharts.llnl.gov/commodities/energy
The Original AG 76 said:
has anybody done a study of the effect on the power grid IF tens of millions of cars and trucks were hooked up to the grid recharging every night ? We already have serious summer brown outs due the A/C surge we get during a heat wave in the yankee states and even in some areas on Texas. All of the "pie in the sky" unicorn fart utopian bilge about electric cars always seems to neglect the need for charging infrastructure and generating power required in order to make this fantasyland happen.
A lot of peaker plants would be dispatched during current off peak hours
Looked at it in previous thread:
https://texags.com/forums/16/topics/2865376/last#last
Quote:
As mentioned earlier, thermal efficiencies are already incorporated in grid MW, so you would need less than your 12MM MW [sic]. A better way to look at it is probably that EV gets about 3.5 miles/kwh vs. approx 35 mpg for equivalent car. 360,000,000 x 35 / 3.5 = 3600 GWh of electric power. Divide by eight nighttime hours to average an additional demand of 450 GW nationwide. Texas is about 10% of that, 45GW. In Texas (ercot), we currently have reliable capacity of around 70 GW while we only use around 40GW at night. If you add some renewables we're even closer.
https://texags.com/forums/16/topics/2865376/last#last
JW
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