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Stock Market....Is it time for a crash?

3,767 Views | 16 Replies | Last: 7 yr ago by Maroon Flash
badharambe
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AG
I have no technicals. Little experience. Just a thought....

This run has gone on for almost 1.5 months. The longer this run goes, the less people think they are at risk. It seems like every "big name" analysis is saying "the run isnt over", "we havent started bubbling yet".

The time you are at most risk is when you do not think you are at risk at all.
Rice and Fries
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OP did you factor the jobs report released today into your decision making??
SparkE
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I'd have to ask my shoe shine boy.
aggiesq
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AG
With all due respect, your little experience is showing
Duncan Idaho
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snowmnag970 said:

OP did you factor the jobs report released today into your decision making??


You mean the numbers that were smaller than the Feb jobs report last year and the year before?

Duncan Idaho
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I'd be more concerned with the impact of rising interest rates will have on capital allocation models.
Rice and Fries
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I mean the one that significantly beat expected and confirmed the fed march raise of interest rates.

Idk for capital allocation,but it just makes lending more profitable.
74OA
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AG
Profit-taking correction, but not a crash. Fundamentals are sound....
Ribbed Paultz
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All I know about stock market crashes is if you predict one often enough, eventually you'll be correct.
pfo
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AG
OP, no one knows the answer to your question but many will make predictions like they do know. You should begin buying very low fee ETF's like IVV (S&P 500) and/or ITOT (Total stock market), add to them regularly like a machine and never sell.
TyHolden
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AG
It's like a streak in baseball....
dlp3719
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AG
There has to be a trigger. Right now nothing is driving fear.
Whitetail
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AG
When Robert J Shiller talks, we should listen...He just came out and said he thought "this market is way overpriced"

http://seekingalpha.com/article/4055535-talking-irrational-exuberance

Woody2006
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AG
Whitetail said:

When Robert J Shiller talks, we should listen...He just came out and said he thought "this market is way overpriced"

http://seekingalpha.com/article/4055535-talking-irrational-exuberance
It is also important to note that Shiller recognizes there is zero correlation between prices and short-term market performance. Short-term price movements are dictated by risk appetites.

10-12 year performance is much more predictable according to Shiller's work. Anyone who is heavily concentrated in U.S. stock should consider diversifying globally because the CAPE ratios for most markets outside the U.S. are quite cheap on a relative basis.
bmks270
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AG
Of course there will be another black swan crash, but by definition it can't be predicted.
pfo
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AG
Shiller has been saying stocks are too high for awhile now. Goldman came out this week saying stocks were too high as well. Average PE's are between 14-15 and our S&P is currently between 17-18 but interest rates are still so low that today's PE makes sense. It also helps America hasn't had such a business friendly president since Reagan. But if interest rates continue to climb, eventually PE's will fall.

Nobody knows where the market is going in the short run. But in the long run companies stocks go up with increased earnings. Make sure your core portfolio is comprised of stocks you have enough confidence in to hold even when you are worried about the market.
BombayAg
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Ribbed Paultz said:

All I know about stock market crashes is if you predict one often enough, eventually you'll be correct.

This
Maroon Flash
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AG
Trump's deregulation campaign will have a very positive and immediate impact to corporate bottom lines. Tax cuts are planned for later this year.

It is a good idea to have dry powder, but shorting this market could be a very painful experience.
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