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Automation in business

2,952 Views | 15 Replies | Last: 7 yr ago by Ag81Golf
Thatoneguy14
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Thought this might be an interesting topic after the lunch I had today. I work for a super-major and had lunch with our CFO today and learned about some really eye-opening technology that is already out there. I've always assumed automation of much of what we do is out there eventually but after this I really feel like it's much sooner than I expected.

Some of the things we have successfully accomplished this year through technology:

When wells trip offshore, it's obviously an issue, leads to downtime and lost production. Using a technology similar to IBMs Watson, a computer was able to predict 95% of well trips 4 weeks before they happened. Currently, that kind of predictive analytic work is done by production engineers. Additionally, because the computer learns over time their plan is to integrate with everything in the field development (subsea, platform, facilities etc...), not just wells, and they believe the computer will be able to produce a full life of field, optimized development plan. Creating field development plans is a process that can take months and spans the entire organization.

Second technology: we drilled two entire well hole sections (deepwater), completely automated. Not only was it successful, they were supposedly the fasted sections ever drilled offshore.

It's easy to go venture over to the politics board and see the debates about the $15 min. wage and automation replacing burger flippers but it's not often I ever thought it about it on this scale and it seems to be coming faster than I ever expected.
tlepoC
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AG
It's a great time to be in the analytics field. This type of stuff takes a ton of work but is very scalable.
SlackerAg
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AG
It's definitely been happening right under our noses with software/internet & the digital age -- no need for travel agents, Photomats, radio DJs, human stock-brokers, etc. Someday there will be self-driving Ubers to replace humans. Here's an often-quoted famous article by Marc Andreesen (founder of Netscape) on how software is overturning entire industries:

Why Software Is Eating the World

I saw this trend coming a while back and pivoted careers from hardware to software/controls, and begun studying machine-learning/data science. Better to be the disruptor than the disrupted...
wheelskjm
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AG
Sensors on everything and machine learning algorithms/AI

https://www.forbes.com/sites/bernardmarr/2016/09/30/what-are-the-top-10-use-cases-for-machine-learning-and-ai/

Everyone is going to have more free time, and the largest companies are gonna need so many fewer white/blue collar workers.

https://www.wired.com/2017/02/programming-is-the-new-blue-collar-job/

The world is gonna get weird, fast. Hold onto your butts.
Engine10
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AG
Keep an eye on GE, AspenTech, Honeywell, Ericcsson. All have leading platforms in IIoT and are only getting better. GE sold off their finance division to fund GE Digital. Bought a software platform and have started channel partner alliances to start their empire.
The Collective
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AG
Duncan Idaho
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Non-trail Law and non-surgical medicine are going to be kicked in the ass.



Waltonloads08
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AG
Duncan Idaho said:

Non-trail Law and non-surgical medicine are going to be kicked in the ass.






At some point, people will look back in shock that we used to let unreliable and imprecise humans perform surgery.
Duncan Idaho
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I agree. I was talking about a sub 20 year horizon
Dr. Doctor
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AG
I still the the question will be "what do you do with the people?"

We have a Puritanical ideology that people derive their worth through work. If there is no work (especially high level work), what do you do with those people?

Look up Buckminster Fuller and some of his quotes. I feel that if more routine work (or predictive work) is removed, you need to address that.

Sorry for dragging politics into this. I do think it is a cool idea. But being in the design world, part of the work can be replaced, but a large portion of EPC work in the Chemical/O&G world can't. You can't get a computer to pre-determine the placement of new equipment in an old facility. At least I haven't see how you can....

~egon
Duncan Idaho
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Quote:


I still the the question will be "what do you do with the people?"


Obviously, You turn them into batteries.
TwoMarksHand
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AG
Engine10 said:

Keep an eye on GE, AspenTech, Honeywell, Ericcsson. All have leading platforms in IIoT and are only getting better. GE sold off their finance division to fund GE Digital. Bought a software platform and have started channel partner alliances to start their empire.
Rockwell Automation and Cisco have teamed up to bridge the gap of IT and OT. IIoT is going to get real very fast. That's why I'm on the selling end of the business.
LOYAL AG
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AG
People have been predicting the end of jobs since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. Henry Ford's assembly line was going to put an end to manufacturing jobs. Turns out both of those were wrong. Since then the nation's population has grown exponentially with employment for pretty much everyone that wants a job.

Automation will free us up to think and solve problems which are things robots can't do at a high level. As long as the government stays out of it and let's the economy evolve with the changing times people will find ways to be productive. If the government decides it's job is to take care of everyone then we'll wind up with something galactically stupid a universal income which will permanently stunt job growth.

I have a fantastic memory for numbers. When I graduated high school I could tell you the phone numbers of about half of my graduating class of 927 people (I didn't know the other half of my class) and I could tell you the phone number of every house I had lived in from the time I was four til I graduated and since I went to 10 grade schools it was a lot of houses. I know sports scores from when I was 6, hundreds of them. Yardages, strike out counts, etc. Today I can tell you my cell number, my wife's cell number and my business partner's cell number but I don't know anyone else's. MAYBE my dad's if you pressed me. Same for SSN's except for my partner's. I don't even know my kid's SSN's. Why? Because my iPhone knows the number of everyone I know and more and my tax returns are in a secure cloud drive and available in about 10 seconds so why bother?

I'm a pretty tech savvy guy but I think we're a long ways from a world where there's no work for those that want it. SaaS has produced some amazing products but all they really do is make things I currently do manually more efficient which frees my time to manage my companies and make decisions no SaaS product can make.

That's my $.02.
FrontPorchAg
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Duncan Idaho said:

Non-trail Law and non-surgical medicine are going to be kicked in the ass.




Law I agree with but medicine? Automation has a long way to go.

Do you think a person can type answers online and tell the difference between these two pictures?



Pro Ag
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AG
We may get to the point where a machine could tell the difference.

I think these things will come fast, however to do many of these things right you need digital organizations that surpass what companies have now. Software quality is not great across the board and for some of these things it must be near perfect. I think that lends itself to the point above where jobs will change. You may not need the manual work, but you need people that can design, build, test, and monitor the software that now takes the place of this work.
Duncan Idaho
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Mtn_Guide said:

Duncan Idaho said:

Non-trail Law and non-surgical medicine are going to be kicked in the ass.




Law I agree with but medicine? Automation has a long way to go.

Do you think a person can type answers online and tell the difference between these two pictures?






http://www.wired.co.uk/article/ibm-watson-medical-doctor

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/ibms-watson-cracks-medical-mystery-life-saving-diagnosis-patient-who-baffled-doctors-1574963

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/600868/the-artificially-intelligent-doctor-will-hear-you-now/

Pathology and treatment management (unless protected by law/medical Carter/crony capitalism will become something closer to the mail order pharmacy model where the process is 99.999% automated with only a licensed pharmacist stepping in at the last second to look at the pills and "validating" the prescription.

All you charts, scans, lab results, pathology reports will be sent to some AI with a physician looking at it and saying "sure, sounds good to me"
Ag81Golf
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Duncan Idaho said:

Quote:


I still the the question will be "what do you do with the people?"


Obviously, You turn them into batteries.

Perhaps there was something to those wafers in Soylent Green?

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