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Gayed: Am I the Only One Nervous?

2,731 Views | 6 Replies | Last: 7 yr ago by Woody2006
Woody2006
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https://pensionpartners.com/am-i-the-only-one-nervous/
Quote:

As Charlie Bilello (Twitter: @CharlieBilello) noted recently, the S&P 500 hasn't had a 1% intraday move since December 14. This is the longest period of intraday calmin history.

Quote:

Now ask yourself can this calm behavior in markets continue? Maybe, but volatility is notoriously mean reverting. Combined with high valuations and enormous complacency, we are likely nearing a time of great turbulence ahead, at least for US markets as a secular shift in emerging market leadership begins to take hold (and is long overdue). Amazing how the two overriding beliefs of the Fed hiking rates and a Donald Trump presidency being hurtful for emerging markets has led us to a 9-year low in emerging market high yield credit spreads. So much for that nonsense.
Quote:

"If it ain't broke, don't fix it" dominates how investors view their portfolios, chasing past winners and looking at prior returns as an anchor for what to position in. But more often than not, you don't know if your portfolio is broken until it's too late. Logic dictates one should prepare for multiple scenarios through diversification and risk management. Unfortunately, few do this. Instead, investors get more optimistic and bullish after a bull run has already happened. Funny how a 30% rise from the February lows last year now makes people positive on stocks.
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The point of maximum risk is the point when everyone believes there is no risk. This does not imply an imminent decline. Rather it implies one should manage expectations for what happens next, and plan for alternate scenarios. Don't get caught up in the euphoria of higher prices. Get excited for lower ones.
Vernada
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topic was not what I expected
Woody2006
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I believe in long-term investing and making sure your allocation is in line with your ability to withstand volatility in your portfolio without making emotional investment decisions.

That said, the time to tap the brakes is before you crash... not after.
M.C. Swag
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*checks retirement clock*
"34 years left"


Think I'm good. Ready to ride the waves!!!
Woody2006
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M.C. Swag said:

*checks retirement clock*
"34 years left"


Think I'm good. Ready to ride the waves!!!
Yep... keep systematically saving and market downturns actually become your friend.
Bocephus
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Patiently waiting for the housing bubble to pop again
Carnwellag2
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Woody2006 said:

https://pensionpartners.com/am-i-the-only-one-nervous/
Quote:

As Charlie Bilello (Twitter: @CharlieBilello) noted recently, the S&P 500 hasn't had a 1% intraday move since December 14. This is the longest period of intraday calmin history.



is your chart right? Jan 30th had an intraday 1% move
Woody2006
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Carnwellag2 said:

Woody2006 said:

https://pensionpartners.com/am-i-the-only-one-nervous/
Quote:

As Charlie Bilello (Twitter: @CharlieBilello) noted recently, the S&P 500 hasn't had a 1% intraday move since December 14. This is the longest period of intraday calmin history.



is your chart right? Jan 30th had an intraday 1% move
Jan 30th - low on the S&P was 2268.04 and the high was 2286.01. This is only a move of 78 basis points.

*Got my data from google finance.
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