The winners and losers will be determined by the inelasticity of demand for their product. The more inelastic, the higher the sales price (passing on the tariff to the end consumer). So in that regard, I'd imagine you'd see little to no margin loss.
The industries where the demand is more elastic, on-shore producers are going to see the biggest gains, which is ideally the end result of such a tariff. Off-shore producers would likely increase their prices to meet margin goals, while on-shore would raise prices marginally to achieve further gains on sales (and still price lower than off-shore, gaining market share).
I think the overall S&P will not suffer a lot, but you're going to have large gainers and large losers for a net zero impact.
I do think that real estate will under perform in the Trump presidency as I think we're more likely to see rates rise.
The industries where the demand is more elastic, on-shore producers are going to see the biggest gains, which is ideally the end result of such a tariff. Off-shore producers would likely increase their prices to meet margin goals, while on-shore would raise prices marginally to achieve further gains on sales (and still price lower than off-shore, gaining market share).
I think the overall S&P will not suffer a lot, but you're going to have large gainers and large losers for a net zero impact.
I do think that real estate will under perform in the Trump presidency as I think we're more likely to see rates rise.