Dow futures tumble more than 160 points after Trump says the U.S. will hit all imports from Mexico with a 5% tariff starting June 10 cnb.cx/30XEHUA

The SPY is sitting right on what I see is the 0% Fibonacci retracement. 276.64 ish is right there. Watch this level over night and in the morning. Might be a REALLY good opportunity to buy a 277 call for cheap. The next Fibonacci level 38.2% is 278.27.

If it SPY stays under 277 over night and doesn't break below the previous 276.64 then we could see a several dollar bounce.

Thoughts?

I am not very good at posting images. If someone wants to PM me their number I can text a screen caption of what I tried to explain.

SoupNazi2001 said:

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Weekly S&P low and 200 day moving average taken out in futures market. Will be interesting tomorrow to see if it is a gap and go to the downside or if they try and squeeze the overnight shorts.

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If we open down a lot, that 2744 gap is definitely in play to fill

What if it breaks 276?

Markets are going to get really ugly tomorrow. Will probably hear a retaliatory response by Mexico right before markets open.

Prognightmare said:

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What if it breaks 276?

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puts

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/31/china-economy-official-manufacturing-pmi-for-may.html

Quote:

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China's manufacturing activity contracted more than expected for in the month of May amid a bitter trade war with the U.S.

The official manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for May came in at 49.4, lower than the 49.9 economists polled by Reuters had forecast. April's reading was 50.1.

PMI readings above 50 indicate expansion, while those below that signal contraction.

The PMI is a survey of businesses about the operating environment. Such data offer a first glimpse into what's happening in an economy, as they are usually among the first major economic indicators released each month.

For China, the PMI is among economic indicators that investors globally watch closely for signs of trouble amid domestic headwinds and the ongoing U.S.-China trade dispute.

The official PMI survey typically polls a large proportion of big businesses and state-owned enterprises. A separate survey, the Caixin indicator has a bigger mix of small- and medium-sized firms

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Below 50 is a contraction of the economy. China can't wait out Trump if the Fed cut rates. If they don't Trump should raise tariffs on them again and kill their economy. Ours will hurt to but China hasn't been this vulnerable in decades. Fed rate cut would also kill them right now.

Honestly no idea, but the markets are so sensitive right now all they need to say is that they are thinking about doing something really mean to the US and it'll probably cause a sell-off.

Ragoo said:

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I am not very good at posting images. If someone wants to PM me their number I can text a screen caption of what I tried to explain.

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Ragoo said:

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The SPY is sitting right on what I see is the 0% Fibonacci retracement. 276.64 ish is right there. Watch this level over night and in the morning. Might be a REALLY good opportunity to buy a 277 call for cheap. The next Fibonacci level 38.2% is 278.27.

If it SPY stays under 277 over night and doesn't break below the previous 276.64 then we could see a several dollar bounce.

Thoughts?

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What app are your screenshots from?

Think or swim, TD Ameritrade

Good thing I bought some 282 6/7 calls!

Futures are down 274...

I don't even want to look at anything today.

Getting close to buying opportunity time

FrioAg 00 said:

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Getting close to buying opportunity time

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Let's just rip the bandaid and close that gap at this point

I agree, this thing is just about over.

I've actually got a nice check coming on 7/1 and am worried I may miss the floor

FrioAg 00 said:

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I've actually got a nice check coming on 7/1 and am worried I may miss the floor

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Don't know the exact bottom but it's close. Utilities are way to high, treasury yields are horrible, not much more negative need can hit the market, equities are the only place for good returns. JMO

It's YOOGLY out there and technical indicators have been all over the place. I had moderate exposure for upside opportunity that looked good until the Mexico news hit. CX back to $4 after that news, even though its a general response to the negative markets versus any tariff exposure for their model.

The last flash down bottom went to 2726, but had a 2751 two day close on support. That's where I'd look at some stocks if they break down and really flash with huge volume.

Look at TVIX and the VIX. Neither have spiked. It's been more of an orderly trend move upward. You would like to see those really spike in tandem with everything we always talk about in order to really move hard into the markets with confidence.

Even the last bottom shown here the TVIX hit $35. Compare that to now, and ESPECIALLY the huge 2350 S&P bottom we had and you can see the lack of volume so far on TVIX. No spike at all. This is just one of the indicators I'm referencing when saying they are either broken or we have a lot more downside risk ahead.

It also could be a completely new pattern tied to a strong economy backdrop mixed with all the shenanigans on tariff's. Still - how would I have confidence to go in hard and with everything based on this chart? No way


https://imgur.com/X3QURJG

Aggie_2463 said:

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I don't even want to look at anything today.

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I looked. Gonna be rough when options open.

ALGN down $16 with bid at previous last low support. I'm bidding in the $275's hidden if can get fills. I'll watch it to see if immediate jump before open or initial market open moves it higher or I'll sell covered calls out for $30+/share

OLED down to $145 after recent blowout earnings took it to $190. A flash below $140 on huge volume would be a God send.

weekly cloud bottom at 272ish, then it'd be down to 50% retracement of the run since Christmas to 265ish

A lot of the SaaS companies have been great places to hide this past 6 months, some even making all-time highs this week. However, one should consider that money will also probably flow out of these names once the conditions get better (who knows when that'll be) and back into the stocks that have been beaten down the most by the trade war saga. Just keep that in mind going forward.

Ranger222 said:

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A lot of the SaaS companies have been great places to hide this past 6 months, some even making all-time highs this week. However, one should consider that money will also probably flow out of these names once the conditions get better (who knows when that'll be) and back into the stocks that have been beaten down the most by the trade war saga. Just keep that in mind going forward.

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TEUM

SUM just continuing to free fall...and to think I was happy my covered calls didn't get picked up at 17.50 just a week ago

Rice and Fries said:

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Ranger222 said:

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A lot of the SaaS companies have been great places to hide this past 6 months, some even making all-time highs this week. However, one should consider that money will also probably flow out of these names once the conditions get better (who knows when that'll be) and back into the stocks that have been beaten down the most by the trade war saga. Just keep that in mind going forward.

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TEUM

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Oh I'm sure it will free fall since I got in it at $4.15

I personally highly doubt the Mexico tariff thing will go into effect, so with that in mind, I've got my eye on STZ and I'll be watching it a bit this morning. I'll be looking for an entry under $170.