Shundere said:

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LPSN Intraday cup and handle?

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You jinxed it brother.

I'm feeling ballsy. Looking at the DE $155 weekly...

This is a straight lottery ticket with no technical too it. Basing it on a strong earnings gut feeling. My buy order is set at $.6 and its not for many.

Or take the money and enjoy your vacation more? I'm skeptical about this week.

Sell in May and Go Away...

I have a question for some of the guys who have been doing this a long time.

I have been in the markets since I graduated 5 years ago and this always seems to hold true for a lot of my holdings. I know the trade talks are putting a damper on the market, but my question is... Is there any correlation with the sell in May and Go Away with politics or any key driver as to why this is always thrown out there?

My assumption would normally be that people pull money to go on vacation or do not want to monitor their stocks during the vacation season. That may be completely off base but I am curious if anyone has any evidence that the summer months lag the other month?

I figured someone might have some data before I do a bunch of digging in my own time outside of work.

Thanks in advance.

If it fills, it fills. I'm not going to chase this one into what could've been. It's a small order. I'll be tired of my family by Friday anyways

RIG up 5.5%

CHK up 6.25%

Regained what they lost yesterday.

With the Saudi news, and summer coming, I was expecting these to rise some before the end of May. Anybody else got any thoughts ont hem?

GFI will be an interesting one to watch the next few days. It's been wedging for a few weeks and will probably break one way or another soon

IrishTxAggie said:

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Aggie_2463 said:

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RIG up 5.5%

CHK up 6.25%

Regained what they lost yesterday.

With the Saudi news, and summer coming, I was expecting these to rise some before the end of May. Anybody else got any thoughts ont hem?

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Ramadan Bomb-a-thon is a good time for O&G stocks!

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CHK With a cup and handle starting to form?

Quote:

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Sell Deere Stock Because Wall Street Is Starting to Worry About Farming

So far this week, Deere stock isn't getting a break from downgrades.

On Monday, Baird analyst Mig Dobre downgraded shares of Deere to Neutral from Outperform. Tuesday, JPMorgan analyst Ann Duignan went a step further and downgraded Deere stock to Underweight -- the equivalent of a sell rating -- from Neutral.

Read more: Deere Stock Is Falling as the Trade Conflict Gets Worse

Duignan sees Deere stock falling to $132, down 10% from recent levels. Her downgrade isn't just about the U.S. trade war with China and the retaliatory tariffs that could hurt U.S. farmers. There is also more than enough corn and soybeans in the world right now, putting downward pressure on commodity crop prices.
The back story. And crop prices determine farmer income. And farm income determines what farmers spend on new equipment. The U.S. Department of Agriculture expects American farmers to earn about $69 billion in 2019. While that is up from 2018, it is down 44% from 2013, when farmers earned more than $123 billion.
In 2018, Deere recorded $23 billion in agricultural equipment revenues, compared with a record $29 billion in agricultural sales in 2013.

What's new. "We spent a few days last week in the Midwest visiting dealers, farmers, and industry experts," Duignan wrote in a Tuesday research report. "Overall, trade issues and weather are putting a strain on farmer sentiment, and there is little interest in equipment purchases right now."

What's more, the outlook for crop prices doesn't look good, according to Duignan. Brazil and Argentina have produced large corn and soybean crops this year.

Brazil and Argentina are in the opposite hemisphere, so the seasons, and crop cycles, are opposite from the U.S. America is planting corn and soybeans now, while Brazil and Argentina are harvesting product.
Looking ahead. Duignan upgraded shares of Deere competitor AGCO(AGCO) to outperform on Tuesday. That call looks to be intended for investors who still want to have exposure to the agricultural sector. AGCO(AGCO) has less exposure to crops such as corn and soybeans, according to the analyst.

AGCO (AGCO) stock, trading at 14 times expected 2019 earnings, trades for a small premium to Deere shares now. But with other machinery stocks in the S&P 500 trading for about 14 times estimated earnings, neither AGCO(AGCO) nor Deere look set up for outperformance until crop prices turn around.

Deere reports its latest quarterly earnings on Friday. Its stock was up 1.2% to $148.06 in recent trading.

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I'm with ya'll on the O&G.

Bought $13 11/15 RIG last week - has held well through his hiccup

Bought $3 11/15 CHK plenty of time to mature I hope

NEE just broke out of its Darvas Box to the upside.

edit: back inside. Topping candle

JD up 3.70%!

Edit: Huge volume upswing in the last 15 minutes

Needs to do a tad bit better to help me, but 5/17 is a few days off.

What is your play? Did you buy options?

5/17 $30.5 Not a lot, but I'll be pleased if I end up even

I'm thinking it might actually make it. I'm cautiously optimistic

What is your cost basis?

.30

I doubled on my 1/2 of my Alcoa (AA) $25's this morning, Looking for a little more on the other half.

Anyone newly long DOCU with this move off the bottom of its Darvas Box?

considering either 6/21 55C or 57.5C

NIO in a declining wedge?

IrishTxAggie said:

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I'm feeling ballsy. Looking at the DE $155 weekly...

This is a straight lottery ticket with no technical too it. Basing it on a strong earnings gut feeling. My buy order is set at $.6 and its not for many.

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Out at $.85. I'll take $150 for 3hrs.

So when does Bayer become a buy? Obviously the Monsanto purchase could very well go down as one of the worst buyouts in the history of corporate moves, but 50% in a year... I wonder how much more they could legitimately bleed.

I actually have been looking at them for months. Morningstar most and undervalue ranking is nuts.

IrishTxAggie said:

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So when does Bayer become a buy? Obviously the Monsanto purchase could very well go down as one of the worst buyouts in the history of corporate moves, but 50% in a year... I wonder how much more they could legitimately bleed.

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I think GE would like to disagree.

I said one of the worst. Not THE worst.

They just had a $2B verdict go against them (appeals aside) with multiple suits in the queue. Seems toxic.

I'm feeling a Buffett bailout with them. Huge brand, hard times, under valued, multiple markets, etc.. Just seems like a Buffett play soon.

So is it a general rule of thumb, that if a stock starts to fall right before before earnings reports, that its probably gonna be a bad one?

I am long in ROSE and it started to fall about an hour ago, earnings are tonight after hours.

Aggiesincebirth said:

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Sell in May and Go Away...

I have a question for some of the guys who have been doing this a long time.

I have been in the markets since I graduated 5 years ago and this always seems to hold true for a lot of my holdings. I know the trade talks are putting a damper on the market, but my question is... Is there any correlation with the sell in May and Go Away with politics or any key driver as to why this is always thrown out there?

My assumption would normally be that people pull money to go on vacation or do not want to monitor their stocks during the vacation season. That may be completely off base but I am curious if anyone has any evidence that the summer months lag the other month?

I figured someone might have some data before I do a bunch of digging in my own time outside of work.

Thanks in advance.

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"Sell in May and Go Away" is an old saying on Wall Street. When I was in the industry, it referred to the big floor traders that would take a lot of vacations with their families several times during the summer. Movements back then were not as volatile as they are today. They have their subordinates do the trading. They'd usually comeback right after Labor Day. I'm not sure that it still applies with the markets we have now.

anyone playing tilray earnings today?

Looks like LPSN is stuck in a Darvas Box? 26.94-30.5

E said:

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So is it a general rule of thumb, that if a stock starts to fall right before before earnings reports, that its probably gonna be a bad one?

I am long in ROSE and it started to fall about an hour ago, earnings are tonight after hours.

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If it were that easy, everyone would load the truck with shorts about now.

edit: That issue trades very little volume. Many O&G stocks sold a bit after lunch.