HEAR done dipped into the 9s at $9.85

rgag12 said:

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Prognightmare said:

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China said they're considering not buying our Ag products. Nothing like starving a billion villagers to keep things calm at home.

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Two alphas trying to be the big boy. The two countries have the resources to make this last decades if need be (contrary to what a lot of people want to think). Not one country is going to come out of this a clear winner, and the sooner they both realize it the quicker we can get a solution.

But until then enjoy market chaos every so often!

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A ton of money is made during chaos.

Bought the 5/31 $24 @ $1.00

WLL

Rice and Fries said:

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My hot-sports opinion this AM: We will have a trade deal with China by the end of May.

The $60B of tariffs go into effect on goods leaving the US on June 1st. So that lends me to believe China is looking strong for their party appearances but I suspect there will be a lot of back door negotiation going on.

"Similar to the higher U.S. tariffs, China's won't hit goods in transit now. The tariffs affect products leaving U.S. shores on June 1 and thereafter, potentially giving the two countries time to negotiate a trade deal" - WSJ

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Storage is cheaper than tariffs. I've been sending an extra 100 tons of product to the US since January. I've got enough inventory for the US sales to last me until Q1 2020. Bring it!!

Bought NVDA 7/19 $200 strike calls @$2

LPSN is a resilient little ****er.

That's my next target today.

Only other gap of this size in last 10 years or so was August 25 2015. Most down gaps of this size end up good shorts from open. But, these are rare rare setups we have been having over the past week or so.

2830 has held so far. Whoosh down if that's lost likely.

whoosh

Damn. If DE doesn't hold 147, looks like down to $142.70 it goes!

Buying more RIG 8/16 $8 calls here at .53

Taking initial TEUM position here at $4.00

TEUM at $4.01

JD is recovering nicely from its initial drop this morning.
Edit: OA beat me to it.

RIG is holding at $7.30, so basically another day like all of last week.

Rice and Fries said:

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Taking initial TEUM position here at $4.00

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I'm in at $4.01

In at $1 as well.

TEUM $3.80 was last major support. If this becomes a multi-day selloff or simply worsens then I'd expect TEUM to see the $3.50's.

These are the unknowns of a market sellfoff

Apple lost a small African nation's GDP in market cap. Because of a tweet.

IrishTxAggie said:

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In at $1 as well.

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TSLA making a run for $200...

How do stocks like GPRO not take a hit today?

I've played that dog before and lost big, but in a huge downturn, they hold strong.

JMO, let dogs lie. There's a sale on great companies. You'll profit more by putting your money to work in them.

IrishTxAggie said:

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Prognightmare said:

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China said they're considering not buying our Ag products. Nothing like starving a billion villagers to keep things calm at home.

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They're full of ***** Soy is already in the tank, but they're ****ed on pork and there are only two countries that can help them with that: US and Brazil.

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"On September 6, 2013, the US government approved Shuanghui International Holding's purchase of Smithfield Food, Inc. The deal was valued at approximately $7.1 billion, which included debt. It was the largest stock acquisition by a Chinese company of an American company." Considering that WH Group (formerly Shuanghui International Holding's - Chinese owned) owns Smithfield Foods and other pork production around the globe making them the number 1 pork producer in the world - I'd say China is well positioned to keep their people fed, regardless of the swine virus. I have always wondered if I'd live to see the day where a foreign country held the keys, or a key, to US ag and decided to cease product sales in the US to keep their own people from starving. Not stating they can, but not stating they can't. Lot's of scenarios can be played out in the US court system and political side from this, nationalizing a company for national security reasons, export tax to keep food supply internal,...regardless, we may potentially end up feeding hogs in this country to ship all the finished consumables to feed another country's population to a much larger degree (...like all of them...) then we currently do today.

When it comes to soy, the US has the port and elevator infrastructure to handle large scale exports. Brazil has okay infrastructure, but the labor force tends to strike when demand gets high in that country and shipments are not dependable. China has witnessed this scenario for many years. China, rather than getting taken advantage of on the raw goods supply and chain (soybeans and soy products) they just decided to go all-in and buy a position in the finished goods market (Smithfield) and smile at the Brazilian labor strikes and avoid being driven (hostage situation) to US export markets that are dependable. They're taking control of their situation as best possible.

Swine virus and a real chance to see a planting disaster this year in the Midwest may get us closer to the above. We live in interesting times.

Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:

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IrishTxAggie said:

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Prognightmare said:

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China said they're considering not buying our Ag products. Nothing like starving a billion villagers to keep things calm at home.

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They're full of ***** Soy is already in the tank, but they're ****ed on pork and there are only two countries that can help them with that: US and Brazil.

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"On September 6, 2013, the US government approved Shuanghui International Holding's purchase of Smithfield Food, Inc. The deal was valued at approximately $7.1 billion, which included debt. It was the largest stock acquisition by a Chinese company of an American company." Considering that WH Group (formerly Shuanghui International Holding's - Chinese owned) owns Smithfield Foods and other pork production around the globe making them the number 1 pork producer in the world - I'd say China is well positioned to keep their people fed, regardless of the swine virus. I have always wondered if I'd live to see the day where a foreign country held the keys, or a key, to US ag and decided to cease product sales in the US to keep their own people from starving. Not stating they can, but not stating they can't. Lot's of scenarios can be played out in the US court system and political side from this, nationalizing a company for national security reasons, export tax to keep food supply internal,...regardless, we may potentially end up feeding hogs in this country to ship all the finished consumables to feed another country's population to a much larger degree (...like all of them...) then we currently do today.

When it comes to soy, the US has the port and elevator infrastructure to handle large scale exports. Brazil has okay infrastructure, but the labor force tends to strike when demand gets high in that country and shipments are not dependable. China has witnessed this scenario for many years. China, rather than getting taken advantage of on the raw goods supply and chain (soybeans and soy products) they just decided to go all-in and buy a position in the finished goods market (Smithfield) and smile at the Brazilian labor strikes and avoid being driven (hostage situation) to US export markets that are dependable. They're taking control of their situation as best possible.

Swine virus and a real chance to see a planting disaster this year in the Midwest may get us closer to the above. We live in interesting times.

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The swine virus is going to end up costing the Chinese anywhere from 150-200MM pigs when it's all said and done. That's at current estimations I've gotten as of now, but considering they still have no control of it and their biosecurity programs have more holes than swiss cheese, I'm not optimistic on them. This will take China at least three years to recover from as of now. Probably longer since there is still on control on it.

Smithfield is a beast of it's own and I still think that was one of the stupidest things that the US gov't did in the 21st century. It will be interesting to see how it ultimately plays out if it gets to that point, but I could see a "national security" trump card being dropped. Also, never underestimate the US gov't ability to make life a living hell via regulation and added scrutiny.

Chinese owns the world in,
*Pork (agree the DOJ should have blocked this)
*Vitamins (DOJ should have done something here too)
*Amino Acids
*At least China was forced to sell our their controlling position of the Long Beach, CA Port. Many thanks to President Trump's efforts in getting the Chicoms out.


Russia somehow got 20% of our Uranium....hmmmm,..


ETA: Time to add some more SPY today.

Ah yes, the Amino Acids! I think I get about 15 inquiries a week on LinkedIn from Chinese trying to sell me "bess qualty amino acids and vitamims!! Bess pricce"!! Fortunately the Japanese have a pretty good market in it too

IrishTxAggie said:

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In at $1 as well.

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Ooof. They don't look pretty right now.

It's going to be really interesting to see how Chinese markets react tomorrow. They were closed on 5/13 (They're +13HRS) due to Buddha's Birthday. I've got a call with some Beijing customers in at 9PM tonight, so I'm going to watch it a bit tonight before I go to bed.

This is a painful day to watch. Somebody stop the bleeding

Trolley Problems said:

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IrishTxAggie said:

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In at $1 as well.

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Ooof. They don't look pretty right now.

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Far enough out that I'm not concerned. Today was inevitable. I will probably double down in a bit.

Another day or two of this and I'll go shopping for some nice swing trades.