oldarmy1 said:

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Financials have been a disaster. Most bounces have been short lived followed by new lows. Here is BAC showing the big volume that failed to reverse the dropand now the current huge volume pattern over the last week. If we see a green day then I would say another decent bounce is coming.

If we see BAC hit a new low on trend I will be watching for volume spike 5 times over average intraday volume and take a position. Remember the tactic market makers love, to take a stock just below the down side before jumping.



Arrows added to show how market makers many times take a stock to below the 3-5 day sideways trend just prior to a move upward. Happens the same way for a selloff too many times.

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How do you determine which candle is the one that will proceed the reversal?

bmks270 said:

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oldarmy1 said:

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Financials have been a disaster. Most bounces have been short lived followed by new lows. Here is BAC showing the big volume that failed to reverse the dropand now the current huge volume pattern over the last week. If we see a green day then I would say another decent bounce is coming.

If we see BAC hit a new low on trend I will be watching for volume spike 5 times over average intraday volume and take a position. Remember the tactic market makers love, to take a stock just below the down side before jumping.



Arrows added to show how market makers many times take a stock to below the 3-5 day sideways trend just prior to a move upward. Happens the same way for a selloff too many times.

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How do you determine which candle is the one that will proceed the reversal?

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You are looking for the basing attempt and then if/when that gets broken you are monitoring volume for the entry.

So BAC just hit below the 3 day support Yesterday was $24.37. Let's see if we see a bounce. I went ahead and bought some shares in 401k's because the S&P looks to have bounced off support.

Do you like BAC over JPM for a long position? Just curious.

I bought BAC at 24.5. Oversold!

Did Robinhood's technical issues yesterday not hurt any of yall?

Buddy of mine said no one could get out of their options positions.

It happened to me. Lost out on two option trades. Came back in time for me to sell and then rebuy this morning some NBEV

leoj said:

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Do you like BAC over JPM for a long position? Just curious.

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I like BAC for larger % gain from below mid-20's over JPM. Frankly, I also like the price just in case we lose 2600 and crash. Total capital exposure is a factor these days.

This might be a dumb question...

Is anybody holding BBOX or did you accept the tender offer? I currently have shared at an average price higher than $1.08 (won't say how high).

Thoughts?

You're sol

IrishTxAggie said:

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You're sol

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Lol I know...

I meant would you accept or hold?

WestTexAg12 said:

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IrishTxAggie said:

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You're sol

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Lol I know...

I meant would you accept or hold?

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What's the point of holding? Waiting for that one last penny in January? Free up the equity, write-off the loss, join the class action suit, and move on.

IrishTxAggie said:

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WestTexAg12 said:

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IrishTxAggie said:

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You're sol

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Lol I know...

I meant would you accept or hold?

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What's the point of holding? Waiting for that one last penny in January? Free up the equity, write-off the loss, join the class action suit, and move on.

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Harrumph!

Fine... I suck at this game

Futures down 17, been as much as 20. Gonna test resolve of 2600 again.

Nice support around 2620.

Wouldnt be surprised with new low just to shake everyone out.

oldarmy1 said:

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Futures down 17, been as much as 20. Gonna test resolve of 2600 again.

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What is next support level below 2600?

If Apple keeps dropping that can't help things

Have been long IWM puts. They were always the indicator over the summer for our move up, and right now they are the have the most bearish chart. 137s.

All financials have moved to green early

Ill keep singing 'sell the rips' to myself in the corner.

In current market conditions, what bulls are essentially relying on is PPT (central banks across the globe that purchase equities to prop up markets), which is not conspiracy theory. Most of market volume is algos, which can easily be manipulated into purchasing/selling. Easiest way to manipulate is with futures volume. The fed playbook is clear. In time of low liquidity / high volatility, volume can move price an extreme amount. Fed first sends out the doves to talk quantitative easing to fabricate saves when market are at key plunge levels. If that fails, they purchase equities via dark pools and other avenues, manipulating machines via volume and price spikes to buy buy buy. Exchanges often act in concert, freezing market orders and the like to slow drops, an implementing things like the uptick rule.

That is currently the only reason we have not broken off to new lows, yet.

You can see that after every single bounce since we entered this corrective phase, buy volume has magically disappeared, and we sold right back off to key levels. Market is going lower, IMO.

claym711 said:

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Ill keep singing 'sell the rips' to myself in the corner.

In current market conditions, what bulls are essentially relying on is PPT (central banks across the globe that purchase equities to prop up markets), which is not conspiracy theory. Most of market volume is algos, which can easily be manipulated into purchasing/selling. Easiest way to manipulate is with futures volume. The fed playbook is clear. In time of low liquidity / high volatility, volume can move price an extreme amount. Fed first sends out the doves to talk quantitative easing to fabricate saves when market are at key plunge levels. If that fails, they purchase equities via dark pools and other avenues, manipulating machines via volume and price spikes to buy buy buy. Exchanges often act in concert, freezing market orders and the like to slow drops, an implementing things like the uptick rule.

That is currently the only reason we have not broken off to new lows, yet.

You can see that after every single bounce since we entered this corrective phase, buy volume has magically disappeared, and we sold right back off to key levels. Market is going lower, IMO.

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All of this is true but the outcome will depend on how long these support levels hold because if it is able to hold into 2019 this market is going to rip upwards with all of the natural influx of monies. I bought again just a few minutes ago across all my favs for trades and will continue to do so on these big down openings.

But I also recognize your model is not incorrect and that's why I post selling all the time too. I take the largest % of gains which happens on these flash down moves rebounding and am long gone not caring about precise exits.

If you can't see it - get out of trading!

anyone looking at MSFT calls bouncing off the 200 MDA

I rather enjoy selling covered calls on huge spike up days, and then buying them back on horrible openings. And in reality, if the executed, and our exes exercised, and if they are exercised, I will of made profit. I don't think many on here are that incredibly bullish or careless or do not perform due diligence. I hope not.

If we take a simplistic look at the S&P then 2620 holds into year end and I say the market moves upward. If we lose that on a 2 day close below 2620 then we see 2400 area.

So what do traders do? Why they buy on big down openings when they are close to the 2620 (and looky there!) you buy hard. Or you cover your short trades.

Buys then look for next strategy on either protection or exit. First exit of 25-50% of my trade I look to see any gaps and, glory be, I see a gap at 2637 just yesterday to today. If a stock has rebounded hard enough I go ahead and take 25% here like NFLX I just sold 25%.

My largest trade was the ES Mini Future options. I just exited 50% of those on hitting 2634 mid-range rebound. That one trade now gives me complete protection against a fail on the bounce.

You have to be deliberate and willing to pull the trigger when making these large trades. But doing so now 4 times on these big down opens down near major support has made a whopping 362% on those dollars traded. Do you think I give two squats if we eventually lose 2620 and I have to jettison any current remaining trade holdings entered today? Hardly

Big volume sell hit S&P creating a temporary gasp down that backfilled but set a sizeable pullback. Shake and bake or are we about to stretch the rubberband to see if it snaps?

That is an intraday Dreaded H above. Daily S&P has the same pattern as well. We bounced off 2620 2 times today with the one that occurred 5 minutes ago hitting just below 2620. The yellow arrow on the left is the last Dreaded H that failed sending us down to major support.

Technicals are signaling that the markets will lose the major support. I posted earlier this week that I give it 60/40 that we lose it. I won't move it higher but do pay attention that when you are testing major support over and over you best pay attention. And again I will enter trades long at that level until it does get broken because the technical are only one component.

oldarmy1 said:

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That is an intraday Dreaded H above. Daily S&P has the same pattern as well. We bounced off 2620 2 times today with the one that occurred 5 minutes ago hitting just below 2620. The yellow arrow on the left is the last Dreaded H that failed sending us down to major support.

Technicals are signaling that the markets will lose the major support. I posted earlier this week that I give it 60/40 that we lose it. I won't move it higher but do pay attention that when you are testing major support over and over you best pay attention. And again I will enter trades long at that level until it does get broken because the technical are only one component.

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I agree with you. Knocking on the trap door this many times is not a good omen. I am not a day trader and I am not a buy and hold guy. I do believe in secular bull and bear markets. This is looking like a cyclical bear within a longer term bull. I have done a lot of selling on the rallies during Nov. If that 2600 region is broken the machines will take over and we will see a massive drop quickly. Transports are yelling at everyone to be careful. If we take out the closing March lows then the bull is over for this cycle. A Dow theory sell will be given as well if you believe in that, and I do. The transports have already taken out the March lows.

The only positive is the sentiment readings are negative, but saying that they can go more negative. Considering all the media is talking about sentiment being so negative and is positive for the market is really a negative for the market.

Intraday S&P battle at 2620. What this tells everyone that didn't know is that 2620 IS the line of battle for trend.

Sideways is bulls goal while waiting to see how all the balls in the air drop. Bears want to break the Darvis Box and wreak havoc down to 2400 area.

2400 area is also my next major support, though Feb lows should be a battle as well.

Trade wars have taken China to their knees, to the point where they are saying they are for sweeping changes. HOWEVER, they and other countries express this against a backdrop of slowing economies, so while a Trump tweet speaking of a coming trade deal usually pops the markets, it only produced a 4 point bounce.

Ok - We be below 2620. It's all about the close on a 2 day basis. This means we would not only need to close today below 2620 but Monday as well for technical breakdown to trigger.

SoupNazi2001 said:

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2580s and then 2530-2550 which is the February lows.

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This

Sold covered calls against my core roku position @41 out to the middle of Jan. Turned and used proceeds to buy more shares at current market.