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21,516,407 Views | 223266 Replies | Last: 22 min ago by Brian Earl Spilner
$30,000 Millionaire
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Futures up. I'm surprised.
Dddfff
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$30,000 Millionaire said:

Futures up. I'm surprised.

Listen to el presidente
$30,000 Millionaire
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Beat the Hell said:

$30,000 Millionaire said:

Futures up. I'm surprised.

Listen to el presidente


I want that guy to lose money because he is so obnoxious.
Dddfff
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Why?

Stocks. Only. Go. Up.
$30,000 Millionaire
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Until there is permanent capital impairment.
59 South
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Good morning team. Futures 3170. Hang Seng closed up 3.8%.

Here's a couple of charts. First S&P showing how Thursday's move combined with today's apparent follow through is very bullish. Bear trap end of day? Need to watch the gap up and fade today, but the damage to the short/medium term bear case appears to be done. Bottom line is that any close above the purple box around 3155 should do it. Maybe we'll see some bear capitulation. Maybe we'll see some profit taking. Who really knows. I avoid the headline driven moves, but I'm only guessing the continued drop in covid mortality rate has become increasingly obvious now with wall street mostly ignoring the fear headlines. I always keep in mind that a lot of the big money is in NYC area so any spikes in Texas, etc aren't going to be as real to them as they were during the peak in NYC. These comments aren't political in nature at all; just speculation on what is driving price. And price is all that matters.



JD - premarket price above ATH and close to 64 right now. Those options entered on Thursday at .58 should be around 1.40-1.50 at open. You can sell about 40% there to go net free. I've got some decisions to make, but at 1.50 I can sell 8 out of 20 to go net free. I can also sell 10 to guarantee at least 30% and let the other half ride. This is a major breakout, and after studying it a bit over the weekend, these ATH moves in the current channel of active bullishness since March have been 2-3 day explosion moves so I'm expecting to test the upper channel by Wednesday in the 67-68 range unless some news driven bs ruins it. If it touches that upper trend line, I'll be exiting all options and all my load of shares from 34.

I made this chart on Friday. It's pretty busy, but it explains my rationale for entering those calls, and why I continually reassess planned exit prices based on ever changing technicals. After getting murdered on a handful of botched options trades, moving forward I'm making charts like this to justify entry and exits (hopefully never more complicated that this).

McInnis 03
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Rice and Fries
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Prognightmare said:

Swollen Thumb said:

Prognightmare said:

It's gone BSC that's for sure. A few longtime vets caught bans, with some permas. A lot have dropped their stars or closed their accounts. F16 won't survive, imo, which is bad because it will bleed over into other forums.

Everyone knows I'm political but I make a conscience effort not to bring it into here or the tears thread.


Don't take the bait on F16 and get yourself banned. We need you here.
I spend most of my time on F16 but have refrained from really getting into this because minds will not be changed and the vitriol will only escalate leading to the elimination of F16.

During all this chaos the past few weeks, I've really only spent time on this thread because everyone is cool and focused on one goal, making money.


Much respect for this. Just because we don't agree eye to eye on the f16, doesn't mean we both don't love our country and the ability to have discussions about anything else. To me, politics is like having that one weird cousin in the family, everyone knows they're weird and sometimes it's just best to ignore and not bring up the cousin. Doesn't mean you're not still part of the same fam.
Tex Shirley
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They are fast and loose with the ban hammer these days. Keep your head on a swivel.
ProgN
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Tex Shirley said:

They are fast and loose with the ban hammer these days. Keep your head on a swivel.


Which thread and who were you prior to July 1st?
McInnis 03
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Prognightmare said:

Tex Shirley said:

They are fast and loose with the ban hammer these days. Keep your head on a swivel.


Which thread and who were you prior to July 1st?
You can almost spell "Irish" from "Shirley"
ProgN
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McInnis 03 said:

Prognightmare said:

Tex Shirley said:

They are fast and loose with the ban hammer these days. Keep your head on a swivel.


Which thread and who were you prior to July 1st?
You can almost spell "Irish" from "Shirley"


"I am serious and don't call me Shirley"
59 South
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McInnis 03
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I was thinking with a gap this large that the volume would preclude the gap play, but as of right now, it's looking like it'll be a "go" this morning.....tbd.
BrokeAssAggie
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NIO up 20% pre market
59 South
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McInnis 03 said:

I was thinking with a gap this large that the volume would preclude the gap play, but as of right now, it's looking like it'll be a "go" this morning.....tbd.
Interested in this. I'm not familiar with this play but assume it's a data driven indicator of gaps based on previous day volume or premarket volume?

Keep in mind that SPX topped out Thursday over 3165 so I could see a scenario where we open up around 3170, knock out a quick flash V dip under 3160 to close that gap on the daily, and then power move to 3200+. Not saying that is likely and probably a bit optimistic since I held very long over the holiday weekend.
jbeck3487
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MGNI (formerly RUBI) is up ~6.5% to 7.25
MOCO9
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jbeck3487 said:

MGNI (formerly RUBI) is up ~6.5% to 7.25


And still running!
Maximus_Meridius
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59 South said:

McInnis 03 said:

I was thinking with a gap this large that the volume would preclude the gap play, but as of right now, it's looking like it'll be a "go" this morning.....tbd.
Interested in this. I'm not familiar with this play but assume it's a data driven indicator of gaps based on previous day volume or premarket volume?

Keep in mind that SPX topped out Thursday over 3165 so I could see a scenario where we open up around 3170, knock out a quick flash V dip under 3160 to close that gap on the daily, and then power move to 3200+. Not saying that is likely and probably a bit optimistic since I held very long over the holiday weekend.
Pretty much that on the play. It's one of Carter's moves, where he looks at the size of the gap and the size of the pre-market volume to determine whether or not to fade the gap.
E
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CrazyRichAggie said:

NIO up 20% pre market


McInnis 03
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59 South said:

McInnis 03 said:

I was thinking with a gap this large that the volume would preclude the gap play, but as of right now, it's looking like it'll be a "go" this morning.....tbd.
Interested in this. I'm not familiar with this play but assume it's a data driven indicator of gaps based on previous day volume or premarket volume?

Keep in mind that SPX topped out Thursday over 3165 so I could see a scenario where we open up around 3170, knock out a quick flash V dip under 3160 to close that gap on the daily, and then power move to 3200+. Not saying that is likely and probably a bit optimistic since I held very long over the holiday weekend.
The "opening gap fade" is a setup that is described in John Carter's book, "Mastering the Trade" and it's predicated on the market not being fond of leaving gaps behind. The setup is fairly basic in that markets move overnight; however, because one sector's benefit may be another sector's loss and vice versa, the gaps often times fill on SPY, DIA, /ES, and /YM. The indicator on whether or not the overnight move is a move of conviction is volume on the ES or YM from 7a - 8:20a (central). When volatility is low (say VIX 20-30) then on a 30 min chart, if less than 50K contracts exchange on ES (that's what I use) in that time frame, the move lacks conviction and the setup is present. If the contracts are pushing up to 75K you can play a half-gap fill (ie: if 4 points is the gap, target is a fill of 2 pts). Anything more than that and the setup does not exist. He presents data where they track this play for about a decade, and the fills (when the volume conditions I stated here are present) are about 74% on mondays, 80%+ on T, W, Th, and 74%+ on Friday's. The play does not get taken on OPEX Friday and one other Friday that I can't recall right now.

I know I'm missing a detail here and there, but overall this is the setup and the play.

TLDR: Low volume from 7-8:20A CT indicates low conviction of the overnight move and gap fade play is present. The instrument to play is SPY, DIA, /ES, or /YM. I like to look at an ATM call/put all the way up to a delta 70 (or neg) call/put and the target is either full gap fill that day or half gap fill if volume states it.
59 South
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Cool thanks, that's what I suspected. I probably need to study up on Carter and maybe read his book (I hate reading books, just don't have the attention span and time).

I've been meshing some strategies that are working well for me, and adding some of his stuff might be overdue. I like to keep it stupidly simple though because I'm a dumba$$ at heart.
59 South
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Gotcha, thanks for explaining. Fascinating stuff.
deadbq03
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Good info, thanks for sharing.
LOYAL AG
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CrazyRichAggie said:

NIO up 20% pre market


Is this a rise or has it gone plaid? It's up a hell of a lot in a short period of time.
Maximus_Meridius
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59 South said:

Cool thanks, that's what I suspected. I probably need to study up on Carter and maybe read his book (I hate reading books, just don't have the attention span and time).

I've been meshing some strategies that are working well for me, and adding some of his stuff might be overdue. I like to keep it stupidly simple though because I'm a dumba$$ at heart.
Psh, you're one of the smarter ones here. And as for adding stuff, if what you have is working, why fix it?
E
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LOYAL AG said:

CrazyRichAggie said:

NIO up 20% pre market


Is this a rise or has it gone plaid? It's up a hell of a lot in a short period of time.


McInnis 03
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I think NIO is benefiting from TESLA overrun. People who can't live to play TESLA are now playing NIO in it's place.
Proposition Joe
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GNUS
AgEng06
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McInnis 03 said:

I think NIO is benefiting from TESLA overrun. People who can't live to play TESLA are now playing NIO in it's place.
Same with SOLO.
fightintxag13
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Proposition Joe said:

GNUS
WTF is going on there??? It was over 4 before market. Now it's 3.00. I thought the news was a pretty massive deal.
Boat Shoes
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fightintxag13 said:

Proposition Joe said:

GNUS
WTF is going on there??? It was over 4 before market. Now it's 3.00. I thought the news was a pretty massive deal.


I think people expected a buyout.
LOYAL AG
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McInnis 03 said:

I think NIO is benefiting from TESLA overrun. People who can't live to play TESLA are now playing NIO in it's place.
Kind of my thought. It's up 80% in five days. Not sure it's got much more to it before it comes back to earth. Wish I'd filled Thursday but when it didn't I'm not sure I want to get in right now. I'm more of a Buy-Write guy than a buy and hold but I fill now at $11.50 and it falls back to $6 I'm stuck holding it for a period and probably can't sell the Calls without losing money on the trade.
fightintxag13
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I mean I think it's still going to happen, which is why I'm holding it, but I guess that's not good enough.
TheCellarDoor
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Just went net free on TSLA Jan 22 1800c... 18 months of net free!
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