DAL 7/17 $32C have been absolutely nonstop today. I and a friend are in at 3.15

PearlJammin said:

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E said:

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IrishTxAggie said:

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McInnis 03 said:

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IrishTxAggie said:

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32k on those ROKU 7/17 240 at .77 just now

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Something is afoot.

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There's a GOOGL rumor, but I can't see GOOGL paying 2X current stock price

and another 32k at .79

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You entering any of them?

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I just bought 30 contracts for Oct 200 calls

/not an experienced trader

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Got a fill with 5 seconds left before close at 3.55. Closed at 3.90. This might be fun...

TecRecAg said:

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PearlJammin said:

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E said:

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IrishTxAggie said:

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McInnis 03 said:

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IrishTxAggie said:

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32k on those ROKU 7/17 240 at .77 just now

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Something is afoot.

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There's a GOOGL rumor, but I can't see GOOGL paying 2X current stock price

and another 32k at .79

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You entering any of them?

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I just bought 30 contracts for Oct 200 calls

/not an experienced trader

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Got a fill with 5 seconds left before close at 3.55. Closed at 3.90. This might be fun...

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You and me man! To the moon!

I should probably cut bait with this SPY 305 put expiring tomorrow. My gut tells me it drops tomorrow but I'm not sure I want to wait. Is there any shot of me getting value out of this thing?

I had a few but kept 1

Sorry. Worded my first post like i had all my eggs in that basket

IrishTxAggie said:

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TecRecAg said:

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I should probably cut bait with this SPY 305 put expiring tomorrow. My gut tells me it drops tomorrow but I'm not sure I want to wait. Is there any shot of me getting value out of this thing or is fighting the Fed going to kick me in the teeth?

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Why on earth did you hold onto this

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He can still sell it today. But honestly it is now $50, might as well hope for a Trump tweet against China at this point.

TecRecAg said:

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I had a few but kept 1

Sorry. Worded my first post like i had all my eggs in that basket

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you will either be a genius or really mad at yourself tomorrow.

3118 seemed like a big number for the S&P today. I noticed the magical 10 point bump in the last minute of trading to get above it and it's continuing AH. Causing volatility to drop AH.

Also noticed it closed 0.5 points higher than June 11 opening when we had the big gap down. That seems meant to be for yet another massive gap up tomorrow?

Bought some 311p/314c strangles. We will open at 312.5 tomorrow

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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TecRecAg said:

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I had a few but kept 1

Sorry. Worded my first post like i had all my eggs in that basket

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you will either be a genius or really mad at yourself tomorrow.

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It was worth less than $50. The goal of a hedge isnt to make money but to protect on the downside. If you are selling your puts when they get in the money you can leave your book way more exposed.

Agreed. VIX above 30 is not autopilot mode for the markets.

Also, not that this market gives a rat's ass about candlestick patterns, but many of the market leaders including AAPL are showing a hanging man on the daily. We may at least get a 1 or 2 day pullback.

aggiedaniel06 said:

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Agreed. VIX above 30 is not autopilot mode for the markets.

Also, not that this market gives a rat's ass about candlestick patterns, but many of the market leaders including AAPL are showing a hanging man on the daily. We may at least get a 1 or 2 day pullback.

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Blasphemy!

So near close, I bought:

VXX 07/02 42 C
SPY 07/02 307 P
AAPL 07/17 340 P

Random observation on ROKU. Yesterday it closed below 8/21/50/200 EMAs. Today it closed at least 6% over all of them. Not sure I've ever seen anything like that happen outside of earnings or other unexpected news announcement.

The AAPL puts look like a solid buy. One thing I noted in AAPL this past week is the massive divergence in Price and Money Flow. This is usually a classic indicator of institutions bailing and retail left bagholding.

What do you use to monitor money flow?

So one thing I just noticed because I don't look at it frequently is NFLX moving above both the 8/21 day ma's. Seems like it could head back towards 450 now.

aggiedaniel06 said:

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The AAPL puts look like a solid buy. One thing I noted in AAPL this past week is the massive divergence in Price and Money Flow. This is usually a classic indicator of institutions bailing and retail left bagholding.

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so the other ones are ****ty? I don't think we'll necessarily see 307 tomorrow, but it doesn't mean i can't scalp it. same with VIX. Re: Apple - there is no way it warrants ATH prices. I have a decent sized long stake in AAPL and I am tempted to sell covered calls against it as well.

Completely agree with what you're saying, but I think a good bit of it might also be that AAPL value is too much of some portfolios right now due to the fact it's run up almost 45% in three months. Some portfolio managers might be needing to shed it to keep within their covenants

I use Chaikin Money Flow Oscillator.

But beware when using Chaikin. It does not work when there are massive Gap Ups/Downs and you'll have to gain some experience with it to realize how to interpret it when there are massive gaps.

I pinned a SPX 3050 fly for tomorrow about 3 weeks ago. We will NOT be at 3050 tomorrow.

So you're looking at the slope being negative while we have had 7 out of 8 previous days being green?

Not that the others are bad.

I don't have a feel for SPX with all the Fed shenanigans and nothing of particular stands out to me.

VIX is good as I have been saying because a boatload of money has flowed into volatility these past 2 weeks and there were hardly and shares available to short on volatilty instruments, setting up for a short squeeze.
Of course the Fed's announcement yesterday changed a lot of that. Not that I'm bullish now, but I don't know what to think.

The chart pattern and money flow on AAPL stood out to me.

Yes. You should be able to see that clearly on the daily chart before the crash. Money inflow peaks on Jan 13, but SP continues to move up for a month more until the crash.

Its harder to see this now because the insane volatility makes the oscillator not easy to interpret.

McInnis 03 said:

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I pinned a SPX 3050 fly for tomorrow about 3 weeks ago. We will NOT be at 3050 tomorrow.

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how do you know?

same. I don't have an f'ing clue right now. I have access to a professional economist and I asked for some insight. The basic story is that the fed has created 'moral hazard' and an asset bubble. The growing risk to watch is that the fed loses some control. Another risk is a solvency crush. The fed is trying to backstop to allow borrowing / credit through bonds to allow some of these large entities to avoid defaulting. Like someone else pointed out, there is fear that any small reduction in continuous, overwhelming support will create cascading problems. Third risk is congress sees asset price performance and decides not to offer stimulus to individuals / small biz.

Could be. But most rebalancing is done at the EOM/EOQ in this case. Also quarterly rebalancing for the indices is June 19.

This being quad witching week is going just as expected with fireworks everyday.

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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same. I don't have an f'ing clue right now. I have access to a professional economist and I asked for some insight. The basic story is that the fed has created 'moral hazard' and an asset bubble. The growing risk to watch is that the fed loses some control. Another risk is a solvency crush. The fed is trying to backstop to allow borrowing / credit through bonds to allow some of these large entities to avoid defaulting. Like someone else pointed out, there is fear that any small reduction in continuous, overwhelming support will create cascading problems. Third risk is congress sees asset price performance and decides not to offer stimulus to individuals / small biz.

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It is total bull**** that the Main Street program hasn't been completed. If you are at a PE backed company, you got royally ****ed by the affiliation rules in the PPP. Every hospitality company in the world got PPP because they wrote special rules to exempt from affiliation, and the travel guys got special funds earmarked - but they STILL don't have the Main Street program functioning because it isn't the little guy in business, it isn't giving free money out to all the low earners and it doesn't benefit the lobbyist back mega corporations.

This matters to a ton of smaller oil and gas companies who are facing a legitimate liquidity issue, and I'm at one that is sitting relatively well positioned compared to the purely oil and/or poorly hedged guys.

yes, but who knows what tomorrow brings?

you're right. The issue as I understood it is that because the market is up, there may be belief by law makers that everything is great. Presenting all these success stories of "greatest retail growth ever" and "greatest one month gain in employment" risks law makers. I am under no illusion that big companies are who is really being propped up right now while everyone else suffers.

Trying to say this in the most brief way possible, what the Fed always did & does is bail out you, me and the other priveleged people on this planet who have exposure to debt & equities markets.
One look at Jerome Powell's publicly available trust fund holdings will tell you all you need to know. Read his trustfund statement, simultaneously while listening to monetary policy announcements and it should make perfect sense to you why things are the way they are.

aggiedaniel06 said:

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Trying to say this in the most brief way possible, what the Fed always did & does is bail out you, me and the other priveleged people on this planet who have exposure to debt & equities markets.
One look at Jerome Powell's publicly available trust fund holdings will tell you all you need to know. Read his trustfund statement, simultaneously while listening to monetary policy announcements and it should make perfect sense to you why things are the way they are.

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If Main Street is taken away, I bet some bank stocks feel the impact pretty quickly.

DKNG doing a stock offering and it's tanking AH

tam2002 said:

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DKNG doing a stock offering and it's tanking AH

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If you were a recent IPO whose stock has gone from $15 to $40 in 2 months, wouldn't you? This should have been expected, imo.