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fightintxag13
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McInnis 03 said:

I did not play the gap-fill on Friday despite my stats saying it was a "GO" play. It was a good play, I should have taken it.

Today's stats indicate the same, I'm going to try it out again and likely go for a 50% gap fill just due to my confidence not being where it needs to be yet. (Monday's are also the lowest percentage on gap fill plays, followed by OPEX Friday's, and the 1st day of the calendar month).
We're getting close to the Model T on the gap. I've got it at 301.15. If it reaches that and reverses, I'm selling the SPY calls I have for Wednesday and keep riding the puts that I bought as part of a strangle.
McInnis 03
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fightintxag13 said:

McInnis 03 said:

I did not play the gap-fill on Friday despite my stats saying it was a "GO" play. It was a good play, I should have taken it.

Today's stats indicate the same, I'm going to try it out again and likely go for a 50% gap fill just due to my confidence not being where it needs to be yet. (Monday's are also the lowest percentage on gap fill plays, followed by OPEX Friday's, and the 1st day of the calendar month).
We're getting close to the Model T on the gap. I've got it at 301.15. If it reaches that and reverses, I'm selling the SPY calls I have for Wednesday and keep riding the puts that I bought as part of a strangle.
Depending on what/qty you bought, you could potentially sell a portion at 50% gap fill and let the other half ride to see if a complete gap fill takes place.
***If this post is on Business and Investing, take it with a grain of salt. I am wrong way more than I am right (but I am less wrong than I used to be) and if you follow me you will be too.***

B&I Key:
ETH - Extended Trading Hours --- RTH - Regular Trading Hours
ORH - Opening Range (1st 30min) High --- ORL - Opening Range Low
R1, R2, R3 - Resistance 1, 2, or 3 --- S1, S2, S3 - Support 1, 2 or 3
McInnis 03
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AUDJPY trying to go positive.......
***If this post is on Business and Investing, take it with a grain of salt. I am wrong way more than I am right (but I am less wrong than I used to be) and if you follow me you will be too.***

B&I Key:
ETH - Extended Trading Hours --- RTH - Regular Trading Hours
ORH - Opening Range (1st 30min) High --- ORL - Opening Range Low
R1, R2, R3 - Resistance 1, 2, or 3 --- S1, S2, S3 - Support 1, 2 or 3
Maximus_Meridius
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Lol, I buy one GD put and the SPY decides it's time to break 300...
Mr President Elect
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I have 302 calls and 300 puts expiring today... so yes lets just chill at 301 all day
fightintxag13
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I ended up selling all of the calls. I'm hoping it reverses back lower now, so I can get this strangle green again. I probably had too wide of a spread on strikes, but that's what happens when I trade these by myself without any adult supervision
59 South
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I'm obviously not OA, but here's my read... getting and staying above 300 today could start to qualify as a reversal day. If you follow Scott Redler, it is what he calls a RDR (Red Dog Reversal) where you take back the previous day's low and hold it through close. It has to sustain momentum back to the upside though.

Cannot overstate the importance of 300. Close green 305 or above today (21 EMA) would be directionally bullish. Close over 308 (8 EMA) would be even more directionally bullish. That would mean that we tested and retested and tested again 300 over the past 3 days. Would be more of a mid May set up versus a late February set up where we blew way past the 8 and 21, they crossed over, and then we whipsawed back on a 50% retrace with magnet back to around the 8 EMA before the free fall.

Massive difference in price actions. Blow down and close under 300 means sellers are back in control and blow this thing down below 290, 280 fast. Then we start looking at whipsaws back to 50% retrace around 300 but then the medium to long term momentum is donezo and 8 and 21 EMAs are now a ceiling and 300 is massive resistance instead of support.

Edit to add that 300 - 305 is no man's land showing indecisive buyers AND sellers. Maybe just a waiting game to see the next Covid headline before breaking accordingly?
TecRecAg
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No open positions for me. Still green YTD so I'll call it a win.

What to do, what to do..
topher06
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NET is doing well today, finally.
Bird Poo
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topher06 said:

NET is doing well today, finally.
59 South
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NIO massive bullish engulfing on the daily if it holds all day. That has $8-10 staring it in the face.
Ranger222
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Just sitting on hands and not really doing anything. Still waiting for a direction and will start actively trading when its more clear.

Brewmaster
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willjohnathan said:

I have 302 calls and 300 puts expiring today... so yes lets just chill at 301 all day
next time bank the profit on the puts at or near the open. Right after open we were around 297, then it steadily climbed from there. I missed that target and sold mine at 298, but it kept climbing.

also, we hit 296 pre-market, shortly after 3 am. Big money are most of the players that early, that becomes my short term target. BUT I am in cash now, I would only buy puts today if we rip up to 304 or so. Tuesdays are almost always red though (last couple months) and we have quad witching Friday!
GigEmRangers75455
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Seeing that Zest earnings announcement is after market today. It's form another poster so not confirmed but that's what I heard yesterday as well.

Apparently my phone defaults to the sad emoji
KT 90
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Aggies75455 said:

Seeing that Zest earnings announcement is after market today. It's form another poster so not confirmed but that's what I heard yesterday as well.

Apparently my phone defaults to the sad emoji

that is correct, per Schwab on ZEST:

Fourth Quarter Earnings Announcement Expected: Earnings will tentatively be announced Monday.Expected Timing: After close

KT 90
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NBRV is a lotto type pick discussed on here previously. It's up today over 10%, time to take profits or let it ride for growth?

TecRecAg
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Time to hop back on the train?!
McInnis 03
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1000+ contracts on Aug21 AMZN 2800's at 69.20
***If this post is on Business and Investing, take it with a grain of salt. I am wrong way more than I am right (but I am less wrong than I used to be) and if you follow me you will be too.***

B&I Key:
ETH - Extended Trading Hours --- RTH - Regular Trading Hours
ORH - Opening Range (1st 30min) High --- ORL - Opening Range Low
R1, R2, R3 - Resistance 1, 2, or 3 --- S1, S2, S3 - Support 1, 2 or 3
IrishTxAggie
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My new favorite symbol...FUTU

**** You tu!!
GigEmRangers75455
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Yes in my opinion. We should be up this week so if nothing else buy and ride the week. Sell it if you're not comfortable by next week.
BrokeAssAggie
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KT 90 said:

Aggies75455 said:

Seeing that Zest earnings announcement is after market today. It's form another poster so not confirmed but that's what I heard yesterday as well.

Apparently my phone defaults to the sad emoji

that is correct, per Schwab on ZEST:

Fourth Quarter Earnings Announcement Expected: Earnings will tentatively be announced Monday.Expected Timing: After close







TecRecAg
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Back in at 2.93. Let's go...
TecRecAg
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59 South said:

NIO massive bullish engulfing on the daily if it holds all day. That has $8-10 staring it in the face.
Playing a small gamble on 7/17 8C. Up 7% after just a few minutes. Let's see where she goes.
BrokeAssAggie
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Maybe this is purely hope but I feel like we end the day green.
SoTXAg09
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Mf-Er, spoilers!! I'm only halfway through season 4.

I'm kidding, I understand that window has passed.
59 South
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Here is more explanation about the importance of 300. There is a massive bullish case straight to ATHs if 300 holds here. We should know very soon as the last 2 similar reversals on channel support ended with big green days. If tomorrow is bright green, the pattern holds. If we fail at 300 again, there isn't much support for awhile.

So here's your line in the sand. Agree with Ranger, sitting on hands until momentum direction is confirmed either way.

Blue and red lines are 8 and 21 EMAs.

McInnis 03
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McInnis 03 said:

Feel like we'll see a false sense of comfort Monday, red to green? Then t-th, bloody before a Friday rally

#CompleteSpeculation #WhiteClawAnalysis
My story and I'm sticking to it.
***If this post is on Business and Investing, take it with a grain of salt. I am wrong way more than I am right (but I am less wrong than I used to be) and if you follow me you will be too.***

B&I Key:
ETH - Extended Trading Hours --- RTH - Regular Trading Hours
ORH - Opening Range (1st 30min) High --- ORL - Opening Range Low
R1, R2, R3 - Resistance 1, 2, or 3 --- S1, S2, S3 - Support 1, 2 or 3
gougler08
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59 South said:

Here is more explanation about the importance of 300. There is a massive bullish case straight to ATHs if 300 holds here. We should know very soon as the last 2 similar reversals on channel support ended with big green days. If tomorrow is bright green, the pattern holds. If we fail at 300 again, there isn't much support for awhile.

So here's your line in the sand. Agree with Ranger, sitting on hands until momentum direction is confirmed either way.


+1 for holding right now...still not clear where we're going but do think it's cautiously bullish that we bounced off ~297 so strongly
59 South
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In both previous cases, the power move off the 3 day bottom got above both the 8 and 21 on the 4th day. If that repeats, buying the dips back to the 8 or under a little are the play. Calls on trend out 1-3 weeks.
59 South
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310 calls + 290 puts out to Friday is a viable play right here around 300.
leoj
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59 South said:

In both previous cases, the power move off the 3 day bottom got above both the 8 and 21 on the 4th day. If that repeats, buying the dips back to the 8 or under a little are the play. Calls on trend out 1-3 weeks.


8 day at 308.40 currently, 21 day at 304.44
59 South
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Upon further inspection, here is some more data I noticed.

Bull case:

  • AMZN holding over 2525 (for now)
  • Stronger recent names holding over 8 EMA and showing strong signs of short term reversal (JD, SQ, NIO my only medium term holdings at the moment that I have been looking for an excuse to take profits and get out)
  • Nice steady trend back up on SPY for now

Bear case:

  • No true explosion move off bottom
  • 3rd day in a row of SPY lower low and lower high
BrokeAssAggie
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About riots??

$30,000 Millionaire
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McInnis 03 said:

McInnis 03 said:

Feel like we'll see a false sense of comfort Monday, red to green? Then t-th, bloody before a Friday rally

#CompleteSpeculation #WhiteClawAnalysis
My story and I'm sticking to it.
I hope so. I'm loading up puts and want to get out of some hedge calls I've got.
gougler08
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KT 90 said:

NBRV is a lotto type pick discussed on here previously. It's up today over 10%, time to take profits or let it ride for growth?


Pretty solid cup and handle forming
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