Tracking the 21 EMA or that chart graphic? That graphic or something just like it has been around for at least 14 years.

Probably nothing...

Yeah, but what is about to happen is that unemployment benefits and stimulus check funds are going to run out, as are mortgage forbearance periods.

I agree a short term contraction is possible, and I could be misinterpreting the chart takeaway, but I do not see a big free fall happening again soon.

I'll be mildly surprised if they don't extend the super sized unemployment benefit.

texagbeliever said:

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Carlo4 said:

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Probably nothing...

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I think the graphic is misleading. The crash was based on 500k + American deaths and overwhelmed hospitals. That never happened.

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Shh. 70% of people on this site are currently cheering for a crash

topher06 said:

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texagbeliever said:

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Carlo4 said:

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Probably nothing...

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I think the graphic is misleading. The crash was based on 500k + American deaths and overwhelmed hospitals. That never happened.

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Shh. 70% of people on this site are currently cheering for a crash

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Its healthy for a market to not exist in a bubble.

Fitch said:

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Just my uneducated opinion but the market today feels a hell of a lot more like a bubble with jack sheet fundamentals than it did at the end of February.

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Agreed. And imo this week will bring pain.

I think it is clear to see that the rally has lost steam. A pullback now seems inevitable. I am not taking my long term investments out but I am not going to be caught going long with my "play" money.

Orlando Ayala Cant Read said:

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Fitch said:

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Just my uneducated opinion but the market today feels a hell of a lot more like a bubble with jack sheet fundamentals than it did at the end of February.

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Agreed. And imo this week will bring pain.

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You mean fortunes. Sitting on 3 sets of $300 puts. Tomorrow expiration, 17th and July 17.

Wasn't taking any chances double testing $300.

What's the move tomorrow morning for you day trading degens?

Pain & profit.

Wait until an hour before open and see what setups there are. Day traders typically don't have "a plan" until the day of. They trade what's in front of them.

Fundamentals were already starting to soften before COVID. The fundamentals have further soured with everyone laid off and demand destroyed. Treasury prices have been in an uptrend since October '19.


@aggiedaniel - if you don't mind me asking, what platform are you using for your algo? Custom stuff with python? or something else?

The night is long, open tomorrow down less than 1% hopefully

297 staying strong tonight, let's see what the 3am crew has in store for us

We are already at 299?

Challenger 17 said:

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What's the move tomorrow morning for you day trading degens?

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not to chase and what Irish said. If we retest to 280's or 270's there will be some nice $ to be made in puts.

Great chart on the identical candlesticks! Highly doubt we dip that low again, but we'll see.

BREwmaster said:

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aggiedaniel06 said:

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It's been in the works for a while. Had to hire a new developer. Previous fellow had been straggling for a while.

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You strike me as one of the smartest traders here... is this your occupation? (partly asking for others). You talk, I will listen!

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I wish we had a thread where the geniuses among us posted some of their trades.

Back over 300 on SPY

Python - Modeling, Strategy building & back testing with Pandas. And execution with IB.

If you are going at it by yourself, Quantopian is also something that will work for backtesting and can execute through Robinhood.

Quote:

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Python - Modeling, Strategy building & back testing with Pandas. And execution with IB.

If you are going at it by yourself, Quantopian is also something that will work for backtesting and can execute through Robinhood.

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Awesome. I've looked into Quantopian but have not invested much effort yet. What kind of time frames are you looking at?

Back in 2011-2013, I spent a lot of time developing a trend following system based on EOD data, using a piece of software called Trading Blox. I was back testing on data sets that went back a few decades. The software is nice as it allows you to backtest on a portfolio level. I had reasonable results across futures markets, but the initial capital requirement for the system to work was over a million bucks so I never moved forward with it.

Good luck with your system.

Are these back-tested algos not already used so frequently by the heavy firms that their value is a coin-flip?

I come from the sports gambling arena where anything back-tested with significant large sample success was already baked into the spread. Trying to see why the stock market wouldn't be 1000x as efficient in capturing that value.

Proposition Joe said:

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Are these back-tested algos not already used so frequently by the heavy firms that their value is a coin-flip?

I come from the sports gambling arena where anything back-tested with significant large sample success was already baked into the spread. Trying to see why the stock market wouldn't be 1000x as efficient in capturing that value.

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I, for one, am glad Marlo got you

Entry and exit signals are just one piece of the system. There's a lot of other stuff that goes into it... risk management, money management, making sure your portfolio isn't overly correlated, etc.

It's well known that returns on systematic strategies degrade over time. In Schwager's Market Wizard series of books, the systematic guys talk about the importance of ongoing research and having a pipeline of new ideas to implement.

Proposition Joe said:

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Are these back-tested algos not already used so frequently by the heavy firms that their value is a coin-flip?

I come from the sports gambling arena where anything back-tested with significant large sample success was already baked into the spread. Trying to see why the stock market wouldn't be 1000x as efficient in capturing that value.

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Same could be said for every trading strategy you see in this thread from long only dip buying to Elliot wave to fib retracements ('model T', or mean reversions), etc etc.

An algo driven systematic strategy just introduces objectivity, speed, better execution, and potentially higher frequency.

claym711 said:

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Proposition Joe said:

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Are these back-tested algos not already used so frequently by the heavy firms that their value is a coin-flip?

I come from the sports gambling arena where anything back-tested with significant large sample success was already baked into the spread. Trying to see why the stock market wouldn't be 1000x as efficient in capturing that value.

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Same could be said for every trading strategy you see in this thread from long only dip buying to Elliot wave to fib retracements ('model T', or mean reversions), etc etc.

An algo driven systematic strategy just introduces objectivity, speed, better execution, and potentially higher frequency.

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Essentially the backtraced algo likely isn't going to uncover anything that is a definite money-maker going forward, or really anything that is even a likely money maker as the trend would lose value over time as other techs notice it... it will simply get you in and out of positions fast enough that you are maximizing your plan's potential (whether good or bad)?