I find it annoying how much some of the old guys bash the young guys.
If I go to a shop and look at pumps or casing or plugs or whatever it may be, I'm not going to be an expert on them or understand every application of every product after my first visit. For sure there are young people who are lazy and I am not defending them - but there are older folks who are cruising too. I don't think generalizations are fair for either group.
I deal with older field personnel all the time who think I'm an idiot for wanting to capture the decline of horizontal wells. They want to test wells once per month because that's been "industry standard" for the vertical wells they've worked on the last 20 years - wells that aren't declining much month to month. Who cares if we have spent $2MM extra on a frac - and believe me, that has been very well explained.
That negative attitude is very frustrating to deal with - probably should bite my tongue when I see it on a forum but the aforementioned is one example of how poor attitudes impact me day to day and impact our company in a very negative way. I also work with folks who don't make any attempt to learn new software. They spend 3 days plotting well to well comparisons in excel when they could spend 3 seconds in a different software connected to a well managed database but they prefer their method so they are "busy" all the time.
I agree we are all in this together - the OPs recent post was uncalled for IMO. Last thing I have to say about that.
I bought DTO back in August and again two to three weeks ago (sold prematurely for a nice gain). Didn't see us getting to mid 40s or below again but not too shocking.
I predict the reaction to a few rigs being picked up/Iran/China is overblown. By the end of the year, our production will start to show downward signs - the price won't shoot up but it will stabilize and move up - likely back to the $60-$65 range. Any ME event will then become impactful to price again. Right now, small things in the ME don't have much impact on price IMO. You never hear Iraq mentioned in relation to oil price anymore - pretty sure things didn't become all rosy over there since $90 oil last year when every move in price was attributed to instability. It is obvious oversupply is dominate over all other factors - it was obvious to some people including the OP when this thread was started that oversupply was an impending issue. When oil started showing signs of weakness and ME events quit impacting price, that was my cue.
Hard to see a big run up next year because we know companies will pick up rigs at $60-65 oil. If service companies are losing money with current margins, their prices will have to come back up eventually. Then activity will slow even more and price can come up - those kinds of things take a while to flesh out. What no one has mentioned in the long term equation is international unconventional resources. The next run up will likely see more frac crews overseas. I have to believe Saudi has plenty of shale that filled up their reservoirs - correct me if I am wrong geologists.
This thread could use some more predictions on the record. The safety talk is boring - we all know safety is very important and in some cases it is overemphasized.