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PLUG

30,218 Views | 458 Replies | Last: 1 yr ago by I bleed maroon
aggiez71
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Anyone on B&I invested in Plug Power (PLUG)? Its a speculative buy, but one thats showing a lot of promise. They just voted in their shareholders meeting to have the option of a reverse split to get the price back up above $1, but it seems as if they might have something up their sleeve instead (buyout/merger) that would be even better news.

Plug is a fuel cell company, and they have some major big name accounts that are starting to switch entire warehouses to hydrogen power. Walmart, P&G, Sysco, BMW, and Kroger are among a few. They have had quality issues, but now have a full line of fuel cells, and have some major orders coming in, plus some new product testing in Q3. Just curious if anyone on here has been following them?
akaggie05
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AG
I'd be more concerned with the near-term economics of hydrogen power in general. I haven't checked lately, but as of a few years ago the cost of hydrogen production was sky high.
aggiez71
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Yeah, I agree, that was a concern for me as well. The company works closely with hydrogen suppliers though and have solutions for small, medium and large requirements. This is not the typical play at hydrogen powered cars, it's all about forklifts and warehouse work. They have 90% of the market and as companies like Walmart are getting rid of the acid batteries typically used in warehouses, they are switching over to Hydrogen fuel cells. BMW just switched over their entire production facility in South Carolina to these hydrogen powered cells. It's showing a lot of promise for the future, and at this price it's a steal I think.

They work closely with companies like Praxair and Air Liquide. Air Liquide CEO actually joined the board 2 weeks ago, and 3 weeks ago they invested 6.5 million into them. It's certainly speculative, but at this price, I think it's hard to lose if you look into the company a bit. Just wanted to see if anyone else had been following them. I also have some shares in Ballard Power Systems that provide the fuel cells (BLDP).
aggiez71
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The company is expanding into the European market, just announced a brand new product, and is rumored to be announcing a $2.5M deal with Mercedes soon. The market closes at noon our time today, and Friday I'm sure will be hell, but this is a killer price to get in at IMO, it fell to $.26 this morning, I wouldn't be surprised to see it hit $.50+ by August.
aggiez71
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http://biggercapital.squarespace.com/biggercapital-investment/

I'm still in school, but making $112 by 9am this morning was pretty exciting, just bumping this back to the top one more time to see if anyone else was in this stock.
aggiez71
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Pretty much a conversation with myself, anyone else in on this stock?
Bogey1996
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I've been watching it some, did not get in. Didn't go up like 16% today? Something happen?
Red Rover
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AG
They report earnings next week. Anything else happen? Also any literature on how these hydrogen fuel cells differ in creation, performance, or costs from traditional fuel cells made by competitors besides their company brochures or something of the like?
aggiez71
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They announced earnings report was moving up from the 13th to the 8th, and in the hour that followed until close the volume jumped from 200K shares to 2.2 million, and it closed almost 18% higher. Market knows better than I but they have some major deals in the pipeline with the huge EU hydrogen funding, a big deal stateside with Mercedes, and a joint European venture with Air Liquide as well. They are the largest market holder in North America right now and the European market is just now getting into it. This is all fuel cells for warehouse work to gain profitability and from that point they can expand sideways into new markets. They have several new technologies in the works, and a few big pieces of news that could send this thing through the roof. This stock is a spring ready to bounce in my opinion, I think todays little bump was just a glimpse at what it can do.

Here is a good article written by one of the largest institutional investors. Insiders actually own about 33% of this company themselves. http://thisisbigger.com/2013/05/23/plug-power-investment-thesis/

Again, very speculative but the basics are all here, and the stock is just waiting for some news. Like I said I think today is just an example of what this thing is capable of. Im up almost 25% on my position so far and holding through ER and longer. They have to be above a dollar by mid October or they will exercise their reverse split option they voted on a few weeks back.
aggiez71
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Here is the article without clicking the link.

quote:
This is how we think about Plug Power ($PLUG). Most of the descriptive material has been sourced at plugpower.com.

$PLUG is a company with real business products, revenues, and customer relationships. In addition, $PLUG is a technology company with huge potential future applications. While cash is an issue near-term, the revenues and growth are real and tangible. The current price looks cheap even for the revenue stream, and if you assign any value to the potential future applications, the stock looks like a great deal.

1. The Business

Plug Power is the Premier system integrator in rapidly emerging Proton Exchange Membrane (PEM) based fuel cell market. PEM fuel cells use hydrogen to produce energy in a clean manner, with water and heat the only emissions. Potential PEM fuel cell applications are broad, and could one day power cars and trucks. However, without infrastructure in place (hydrogen fueling stations), it is not yet a viable fuel for today’s cars and trucks.

In the meantime, Plug Power has developed a commercial application for PEM fuel cells that is viable today. Forklifts in our nations warehouses and distribution centers use power constantly to move merchandise and load trucks. Most forklifts are powered by batteries, but Plug Power has created a PEM power alternative called GenDrive. Plug Power customers buy GenDrive to increase productivity, to lower costs, to implement green solutions, and for increased performance. Refueling stations within the distribution centers allow the trucks to minimize downtime and cut costs. $PLUG has to date deployed approximately 4,000 GenDrive units to some of the largest companies in the nation.

2. The Market

The company has a current addressable market of $4.0 billion in the U.S.A. and $4.0 billion in Europe, just in forklift truck applications. The company’s solution provides about 95% of the hydrogen powered forklift trucks in the USA annually. PLUG is the dominant player in this market.

In addition, the company is working on potential new applications that could come online in the next few years.

3. The Strategy

Plug Power is focused on the fork lift market because it is a market they can make money at it NOW. PLUG’s intention is to conquer new markets horizontally, as new markets emerge for PEM based power solution. For example, in early 2014 Plug will be demonstrating 15 ground support support units (flat trucks pulling containers on a tarmac) powered by fuel cell with Federal Express at the facility in Memphis. There are over 1,300 of these units at the Federal Express’s Memphis facility alone. This strategy allows the company to grow horizontally into new markets with minimal capital expenditures.

4. Clients

Here is a list of some of PLUG’s customers.

-P&G
-Walmart
-BMW
-FedEx
-CVS
-Coca Cola
-Kroger
-Whole Foods



5. The Model

The company expects to be EBITDA breakeven around mid 2014 on an annual run rate of $55 million in revenues.

The cost of good sold are expected to be at 67% of revenues and SG&A at 12% to 15% (minimum of $12.5 million). The cost of good sold could be as low as 55% in our estimate.

The company had $26.1 million of revenues in 2012 and grew unit sold from 1,024 in 2011 to 1,391 in 2012, an increase of 36%.

The company needs an additonal $5 to $10 million of funding to get to EBITDA breakeven.

The company’s current manufacturing capacity is $200mm.

6. What went wrong?

The company has had its fair share of problems over a span of fifteen years. The situation has been going to zero fast. Investors have been attracted to this situation based on the promise of its technology but each time the company has been nearing the finish line, it has been pushed back.

In February 2013, the company raised money and the stock plunged on a botched financing attempt. The stock dropped to $.12.



The lead batteries manufacturers used this situation to point out to PLUG’s customers that the company was toast.

Customers decided to pull out their orders and demand for GenDrive dried up.

7. Catalyst.

On May 8, Air Liquide came to the rescue and invested $6.5 million in PLUG. We view the Air Liquide investment as the catalyst needed to reassure customers and bring back PLUG to its recent success track. The strategic investment from the worldwide producer of liquid hydrogen restored customer confidence in Plug.

Plug Power is currently trading at a market capitalization of $13 million. Never in my life have I seen a company with such a proven technology, a customer list that include the best and biggest companies in the world, with an addressable market that will easily surpass $10 billion in 5 years from now, and with a dominant position in the emerging power business. If you gave me $200 million, I could not build a Plug Power.

Let us know what you think.

Additional posts we wrote about Plug Power: Plug Power Ignition and The Boulevard of Broken Dreams.

Disclaimer: Bigger Capital, LLC, Bigger Capital Fund, LP, Bachelier, LLC and the Bigger family hold about 3% of Plug Power. We intend to increase our position if the company’s results track our benchmark.

Plug Power is a highly distressed situation and it is not suitable for the majority of investors. The likely outcome of an investment is a loss of principal.


One thing I don't think is addressed is the delivery of Hydrogen. Within the las few weeks they announced a plan that would allow onsite hydrogen generation for sites with as few as 15 forklifts or pallet trucks, such as individual Walmart stores, vastly expanding the potential. They also have brand new product out, as well as beginning to test in food refridgeration trucks and a few others technologies soon. Lot of potential for a long term hold.
AngryAG
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Interesting.
RAM 12
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AG
Got in last week!
YouBet
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AG
I've actually owned a couple of hundred shres of PLUG for close to 10 years. Pretty much the only penny stock Ive ever purchased. I've held onto it over the years hoping it would someday take off.

I look at it about once a year because its been stagnant for so long. Maybe it's going to finally do something
aggiez71
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Its been a rough few years for this stock, hopefully with this jump you can make some money back.

Ram12, last week was a good time to get in, what's your average price? It's looking like Mr. Market is optimistic about earnings thursday, it was solid today, up 8%. Overall I'm up 24% on this stock. I'm looking for it to keep testing resistance of .46 and then break through to .50+ on good news from earnings.
aggiez71
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moving hard today, looks like Mr. Market is expecting big things on the ER Thursday morning.
aggiez71
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Timed this one about perfect, sold 1/3 this morning at .56, gain of 51.5% which is huge for me. Still holding 2/3 with dollar cost average of .37 and I will be holding that long into 2014 hopefully. This thing is just starting to move, but I couldn't pass up a 50+% gain. I hope some of yall made some good money on this stock this week.
YouBet
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AG
I bought several hundred more shares. I had forgotten about the reverse splits in the past which diminished my holdings.

Got in at $0.47. I'm holding for the long haul and this is my only gamble stock so if I win...great. If I don't...it was fun playing the game.
aggiez71
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I think this stock is finally poised to move higher after years of trouble. I had 3975 shares and sold 1275 this morning so I still have a considerable stake in it. Earnings should be key but I'm holding long into 2014 when this thing should hopefully be pushing 1.20-1.50, too much potential here.
I bleed maroon
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AG
Hit 51 cents today. Where does it go from here?
FbgTxAg
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AG
I hope to $100/share. I have 5000 shares at .21 cents.
aggiez71
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At this point I would wait on the reverse split, then we should be cleared for takeoff
epozehl
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AG
Just added this to my watch list.
RAM 12
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AG
Another solid day
FbgTxAg
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AG
Problem is, how on earth do I ever sell this stock? It was a home-run play from the start. Does it go to $1? $10? $50? $100?

I'd be sick if I sold it at $1, only to watch it go to $5 or $20 or higher....

Hell I feel like buying some more at $0.57...
chazman05
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AG
Im in for 500 shares. see what happens. I like the idea
aggiez71
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Closed well at .52, I think after the long weekend we might see this move. Still thinking out to years end I'm thinking the bigger moves will follow a reverse split. I'm up 62% already, still in long
Wrec86 Ag
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I'm in at $0.53 for a couple hundred dollars

Let's roll
Wrec86 Ag
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up 4.5% so far today.... to $0.56

Wonder where the ceiling is?
Wrec86 Ag
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BOOM

Broke through .58 and went straight past .59
aggiez71
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Looking for the stock to pullback and develop support around the .55-.58 mark, and then push on towards .70-.72, I still fear the markets response to the R/S, but at .5980 I'm up 71%!

Long term I still see this thing giving me 100%+ gains, its just a matter of getting to the $1 mark with a steam roll push, or waiting on the R/S

I hope my posting on here allowed a few Ags to make some coin off this stock, its finally in a position to really move.
RAM 12
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Wrec86 Ag
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Any idea when the R/S will be?
RAM 12
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AG
Don't they have to get the 5 consecutive days above 1.00 in before October ends or something like that? It's been awhile since I've read about that.
FbgTxAg
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AG
Picked up 5000 more at $0.60 to go with my 5000 at $0.21.

If this thing ever clears that $1.00 hurdle I think the sky is the limit.
RAM 12
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AG
Another good open....do yall think it will correct at all back into the .50-.55 range?? I'm looking for another time to buy in some more
 
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