***** 2023 Houston Astros Season Thread *****

7,090,394 Views | 114825 Replies | Last: 1 yr ago by texasaggie2015
tjack16
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AG
The replacement guys have been good at getting on base, but they are immediately negated by Maldonado coming up after them to end the inning.
AustinCountyAg
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Mr President Elect said:

Well, I doubt it would be the first time, but it would be hard for him to slump to Maldy's level. I was probably wrong to concede that spot to Maldy though, in years past we have had the luxury of wasting that spot, maybe not this year.
BINGO. with injuries and people under performing Maldy's glaring hole in the line up is even more impactful.
AustinCountyAg
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texasaggie2015 said:

Diaz is very talented. I can promise you he's far from peaked.

The kid plays once, twice a week at most. Once he starts getting consistent ABs, he'll find a rhythm. Trust me on that one.
hell, with his limited at bats now he at least puts the ball in play and hits it hard. I'd love to see him get 65% of the starts or more. So damn sick of Maldy taking up space.
W
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looking at the Astros stats this morning...

hard to believe that as well as Dubon has played...his current OPS (.668) is only 13 points higher than his career OPS (.655)

reversion to the mean
Farmer1906
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That's is what I was trying to say previously about Dubon. It's fantastic to hit .320 but he was doing it with singles, no walks, and no stolen bases. He has to stay elite at that one aspect to just be above average on offense.
Dies Irae
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With Diaz I wonder if him not seeing more reps at Catcher is with the Starting pitchers feeling more comfortable with Maldy. That doesn't let Dusty off the hook though as that means Diaz should be DH'ing pretty much 24/7 to get him as many reps at the plate. When you have Salazar also on the roster there is no risk of playing your catcher at DH.
Ag_07
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I don't buy this

Yanier was there the entire Spring catching these guys including a period of time when Maldy was off at the WBC.

I'm convinced this is nothing more than Dusty personal preference thing.
texasaggie2015
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Regarding Diaz, I posted this a few days ago and I know some may have missed it. I'm not saying I agree or disagree with the Astros' approach, but this is what I've heard on him:

"He's going to get regular playing time soon. He has some off the field stuff to clean up. It's a big part of the reason Cleveland let him go. Poor work ethic, butted heads with coaches, etc. He's improved a lot and that might be an understatement.

I kept hearing that they saw him more as a Willson Contreras type all offseason. They loved his bat but didn't like him behind the plate.. but thought he would be serviceable enough to catch here and there. He had lost interest in catching and like I mentioned above the work ethic just wasn't there for him to be a regular big league catcher.

Something clicked this offseason and he came to Spring Training ready to work his ass off. And he did. It shows. And it says a LOT to me that Dana Brown came out and said he's the catcher of the future. Gotta give the kid credit."
tjack16
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Dubon is very similar to Tony Kemp to me. He's never going to be more than an average 8-9 hole hitter, but he can provide you with just enough to justify a spot in the lineup
Farmer1906
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We keep hearing that and I believe there is truth to it. But then the #s are the #s.

Part of the success is Brown has been really good, but he's also caught Urquidy & France plus all the relievers.

IMO the framing improvement (only area where Maldy is superior), pitcher comfort, & the occasional savvy veteran moves do not make up for the .200 or potentially much more in OPS points. Plus we're stunting Yainers growth by refusing the play him more.
Dies Irae
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Wow, the discrepancy in home runs is amazing, even when you take the innings into consideration. I know that HBrown is a ground ball pitcher, but still.
TRM
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Dies Irae said:

With Diaz I wonder if him not seeing more reps at Catcher is with the Starting pitchers feeling more comfortable with Maldy. That doesn't let Dusty off the hook though as that means Diaz should be DH'ing pretty much 24/7 to get him as many reps at the plate. When you have Salazar also on the roster there is no risk of playing your catcher at DH.
He's familiar with Bielak and France, so Dusty needs to have Diaz catch them as well. Agree, it's inexcusable for Dusty not to give him DH at-bats with Salazar on the roster.
Ag_07
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Or at least sub Diaz in late

No reason to be letting Maldy hit in the 7th or later if we're within reach.

I think he let him yesterday in the 8th down by 2 or 3. That's just dumb and lazy

Mathguy64
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At some point the weakened roster and poorer play will catch up with Dusty. Margins are much narrower this year and he can't just roll WTF lineups out there and let talent win over time. This would have been the 2 month window for a manager to earn his pay.
texasaggie2015
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texasaggie2015 said:


- Drew Gilbert won't be in Asheville much longer. I give it until mid-May. Maybe sooner. They do want to see his strikeout rate go down, but it's a small sample and not necessarily a concern.




#sources
Dies Irae
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texasaggie2015 said:

texasaggie2015 said:


- Drew Gilbert won't be in Asheville much longer. I give it until mid-May. Maybe sooner. They do want to see his strikeout rate go down, but it's a small sample and not necessarily a concern.





That slugging is strong to quite strong
tjack16
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I think the Abreu situation could easily be helped if he just hit in the bottom three of the lineup

Until Altuve comes back, I'd go

1. Dubon
2. Tucker
3. Pena
4. Alvarez
5. Bregman
6. Brantley
7. McCormick/Meyers
8. Abreu
9. Maldonado/Diaz
Lonestar_Ag09
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texasaggie2015 said:

texasaggie2015 said:


- Drew Gilbert won't be in Asheville much longer. I give it until mid-May. Maybe sooner. They do want to see his strikeout rate go down, but it's a small sample and not necessarily a concern.




#sources
I assume Chaz is also moving back onto the active roster and this is back filling his spot? Bannon will then go back down to AAA
texasaggie2015
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Not sure about any corresponding moves, but that would check out
Ags #1
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The Astros are receiving a .677 OPS and .367 slugging percentage from their right-handed hitters. Only the Guardians, Nationals, and Tigers have lower numbers from their righties.

(@Chandler_Rome)
Mathguy64
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We play an every day 1B with an OPS of .534. And slug < OBA. An OPS of .677 would be a massive improvement.

I'll add his OPS+ is 49 and his bWAR is -0.8. His WAA is -1.3. He's already costing a game over a scrub in the lineup.
Farmer1906
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Star in the making.

texasaggie2015
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The organization LOVES this kid.
FrioAg 00
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As anxious as things seem right now, we are one 9-1 or 8-2 streak from being right where we need to be

We did that several times last year, and we aren't going to repeat without some hot streaks in this season too.

Find a way to take 2/3 at the Angels, then use Sox/Cubs/Athletics to start making your move
Lonestar_Ag09
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I don't hear much about Melton. How is he doing?

All these outfield options I'd like to see one of them start being developed into a 1B option. That had been a weakness for a while and it doesn't seem like we had addressed it with prospects either.
texasaggie2015
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Melton has had slow start to the season but there's no reason for concern.

Clifford is someone I would watch as a guy who could play more first base down the road. They've been giving him reps there. Both him and Gilbert are a big reason why the Astros won't throw a ton of money at Tucker.
Farmer1906
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Lonestar_Ag09
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And Leon and Dirden and Chaz and Jake and maybe a bit later Melton.

This has been my take all along. It's obviously a position of strength for us and why not try to duplicate what we did with Correa/Pena
Harry Dunne
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Ag_07 said:

At this point I'd almost take '22 regular season Yuli over '23 Abreu.

I'll settle for bad Yuli back.
Abreu is the worst starting 1b in baseball and dollar for dollar is the worst player in baseball.

Prove me wrong.
Farmer1906
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Harry Dunne said:

Ag_07 said:

At this point I'd almost take '22 regular season Yuli over '23 Abreu.

I'll settle for bad Yuli back.
Abreu is the worst starting 1b in baseball and dollar for dollar is the worst player in baseball.

Prove me wrong.



Manny last week. Springer and Arenado are up there too.
texasaggie2015
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I'm still confident Abreu will turn it around. Am I as confident as I was on April 15th? No. But from what I've heard, there's really no concern at all among the organization and I trust their eyes more than mine. We shall see.
Harry Dunne
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Manny is on pace for a 2.3 WAR, which is obviously suboptimal given his salary, but at least it's "solid starter" caliber.

Abreu is on pace for a -3.7 WAR. I know he's making a fraction of the money, but he's playing so bad that at this pace by the end of the season we would have been 4 or 5 wins better with any scrub 1b in his place.
Harry Dunne
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texasaggie2015 said:

I'm still confident Abreu will turn it around. Am I as confident as I was on April 15th? No. But from what I've heard, there's really no concern at all among the organization and I trust their eyes more than mine. We shall see.
That's probably the most reasonable stance to have. That's how I felt a few weeks ago and I thought "as soon as someone boldly proclaims Abreu is done, he'll start to hit and make that guy look dumb, as is the tradition of the thread". I hadn't posted it until now because I thought he'd turn it around, but now I righteously think he's toast.

I mean I don't think he's going to end up with a -4 WAR and obviously at some point he's going to hit some dingers and not be totally useless, but I think he's done being an All-star caliber player.

Hope I'm wrong.
Wabs
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Abreu has been bad, but to me Bregman has been just as much a disappointment. Between those two players (batting 2nd and 4th in the lineup), they were 1 for 19 with 6Ks in the Seattle series. Bregman was 0 for 10. That's obviously not going to cut it from those spots in the lineup.
scrimp
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No doubt Abreu has been disappointing so far.

Arenado, Springer, and Abreu could all vie for your "dollar for dollar" award. But I think Bumgarner takes this title this year, barring an incredible redemption story....
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