***Official Houston Astros 2021 Season Thread***

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bearkatag15
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https://www.si.com/mlb/2021/06/04/sticky-stuff-is-the-new-steroids-daily-cover

SI article on the league wide issue of sticky stuff on baseballs. If you are able to get past who wrote it, its a good overview of the issue with anonymous comments from players and managers around the league.
Fightin' Texas Aggie and Sam Houston State Bearkat
Mr.Ackar07
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Quote:

According to the data, L.A. has by a large margin the highest year-to-year increase of any club in spin rate on four-seam fastballs, which are considered a bellwether pitch. In fact, the Dodgers' four-seam spin rate is higher than that of any other team in the Statcast era. There is no proof the Dodgers are doctoring baseballs, but nearly across the board, their hurlers' spin rates on that pitch have increased this season from last.

The Dodgers declined to comment.
I'll be patiently waiting for their punishment to be administered.
n_touch
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Didn't they sign someone in the off season that knows a little something about increasing spin rate?
bearkatag15
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Mr.Ackar07 said:

Quote:

According to the data, L.A. has by a large margin the highest year-to-year increase of any club in spin rate on four-seam fastballs, which are considered a bellwether pitch. In fact, the Dodgers' four-seam spin rate is higher than that of any other team in the Statcast era. There is no proof the Dodgers are doctoring baseballs, but nearly across the board, their hurlers' spin rates on that pitch have increased this season from last.

The Dodgers declined to comment.
I'll be patiently waiting for their punishment to be administered.
Quote:

In 2018, Bauer seemed to accuse the Astros of applying foreign substances to baseballs in a cryptic tweet replying to a comment about Houston's rotation. "If only there was just a really quick way to increase spin rate," he wrote. "Like what if you could trade for a player knowing that you could bump his spin rate a couple hundred rpm overnight...imagine the steals you could get on the trade market! If only that existed" (Houston denied the allegation.) He complained to reporters that by ignoring the problem, the league was sanctioning illegal behavior.

Bauer said he had done tests in a pitching lab and found that sticky stuff added about 300 rpm to his four-seam fastball. He wrote in a Players' Tribune essay that after eight years of trying, "I haven't found any other way [to increase spin rate] except using foreign substances."
He also tried to make his point on the field: He used Pelican in the first inning of a 2018 start and watched his four-seamer, which usually averaged about 2,300 rpm, tick up to 2,600 rpm. After the first inning, that number dropped back to normal.

"If I used that s---, I'd be the best pitcher in the big leagues," he told SI in 2019. "I'd be unhittable. But I have morals."

From March through August of that year, his four-seamer averaged 2,358 rpm, according to Statcast. In September, it jumped to 2,750. In 2020, when he won the Cy Young Award for the Reds, it was 2,779. This season, the first of a three-year, $102 million deal that makes him the highest-paid pitcher in history, it's 2,835.

Before Bauer's spin rate jumped, he had an ERA of 4.04 and the 228th-best opponent batting average, at .241. Since the increase, those figures are 2.31 and an MLB-best .161. The Athletic reported in April that the league had collected several balls from Bauer's first start that "had visible markings and were sticky." Asked about the report at the time, Bauer said, "MLB is just collecting baseballs to do a study. Like, they're not doing anything with them. No one's under investigation, or no one'slike, just these gossip bloggers out here, writing stuff to try to throw water on my name or whatever." (The league is indeed collecting balls from every pitcher for analysis, and there has been no finding that Bauer did anything wrong.)

Through both his agent and the team, Bauer declined to make himself available for an interview. Manager Dave Roberts says he does not know if his players use sticky stuff.
Big morals guy it seems
Fightin' Texas Aggie and Sam Houston State Bearkat
bearkatag15
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Well this is pretty telling
Fightin' Texas Aggie and Sam Houston State Bearkat
Hulla Baller
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bearkatag15 said:



Well this is pretty telling
So the Dodgers are full of cheaters?
EastCoastAgNc
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Hulla Baller said:

bearkatag15 said:



Well this is pretty telling
So the Dodgers are full of cheaters?
bearkatag15
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Add another Cuban to the roster

Fightin' Texas Aggie and Sam Houston State Bearkat
PETE2019
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Wonder what our is. Would be interesting to see the jump back in 2017-18 or whenever we could have potentially started using them. Would imagine our 20-21 jump is pretty low, assuming we were ahead of the curve and have been using them for years now.
Deluxe
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bearkatag15 said:

Add another Cuban to the roster
I like signing the older Cubans. Maybe another late bloomer. Will be interested to see which level he starts aat.
Deluxe
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PETE2019 said:

Wonder what our is. Would be interesting to see the jump back in 2017-18 or whenever we could have potentially started using them. Would imagine our 20-21 jump is pretty low, assuming we were ahead of the curve and have been using them for years now.
Probably true. The implications for the Astros are probably no different than the implications for other teams. But I also think we're in decent position because we haven't shelled out alot of long term money on the pitching staff other than LMJ.

One thing for sure is that I'm glad we don't owe $300+ million to a guy who might have his secret sauce taken away.
EastCoastAgNc
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bearkatag15
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Deluxe said:

bearkatag15 said:

Add another Cuban to the roster
I like signing the older Cubans. Maybe another late bloomer. Will be interested to see which level he starts aat.
From an article I found on him from January:

Quote:

Cuban prospect Leosdani Molina has generated interest in several major league organizations, saying his tools have become a sensation talent in the Dominican Republic.

According to sources told CiberCuba , Molina was declared a free agent by the Commissioner's Office and is eligible to sign with an MLB franchise in the near future.

The shortstop who just turned 21 left Cuba at the end of 2019 and joined in company in Santiago de Cuba, Ricardo Ramos, another skilled infielder.


Molina is from the Tercer Frente municipality in eastern Santiago and since his arrival in Quisqueya he has polished his tools and achieved quality leaps.

In his swing there are some consistent movements such as the exit speed and balance of the legs and hands.

He has run the 60 yards in times between 6.1 and 6.3, his best time so far being a 6.10 seconds that he scored in recent practice.
Molina was in 21 meetings with the Wasps of Santiago in the National Series (2019-2020) and in very few opportunities he left a pleasant impression with an offensive line of .250 / .300 / .339 two doubles and a home run.

Excellent athletes like the Cuban have lately been preferred by scouts in the international market. Speed, versatility, power, contact, and defense are well-paid attributes in the constant search for talent. Molina has several tools to achieve that "first objective" of inserting himself into professionalism.


Fightin' Texas Aggie and Sam Houston State Bearkat
03_Aggie
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Remind me again who this guy plays for currently?



Between the bullpen shot of his forearm and David Price slapping his chest and having his Jersey stick to his hand....the Dodgers are completely fine with cheating. It's also why I found so much humor in the pitchers whining about sign stealing.
Beat40
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bearkatag15 said:



Well this is pretty telling
Question I have - does this chart take into account the same players year over year? I haven't and won't have time to read the article until this evening.

If the chart isn't comparing guys year over year for each team, a team's spin rate increase could be, in part or majority, a function of adding guys who have better spin rate this year than a previous year.

Obviously the Dodgers increase in spin rate is eyebrow raising to say the least. But, honestly, it's possible these 2-3% increases could be form adding guys that weren't there last year.
Fat Bib Fortuna
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As I predicted on this thread back on January 23, by June 4, Myles Straw will be leading George Springer in runs, hits, doubles, triples, RBI, stolen bases, walks, batting average, and on-base percentage. Who needs that guy?
bearkatag15
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Beat40 said:

bearkatag15 said:



Well this is pretty telling
Question I have - does this chart take into account the same players year over year? I haven't and won't have time to read the article until this evening.

If the chart isn't comparing guys year over year for each team, a team's spin rate increase could be, in part or majority, a function of adding guys who have better spin rate this year than a previous year.

Obviously the Dodgers increase in spin rate is eyebrow raising to say the least. But, honestly, it's possible these 2-3% increases could be form adding guys that weren't there last year.
The article does address this for the Dodgers specifically acknowledging that they added a few higher spin rate guys like Bauer and a couple other relievers and had a couple low spin rate guys leave like Pedro Baez.

Even with that though, the percentage increase is a lot higher still. 4 of the Dodgers starting pitchers lead the NL in spin rate... they are literally 1-4 in highest spin rates.


Fightin' Texas Aggie and Sam Houston State Bearkat
Beat40
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Thanks for this. I'll read the article today and see what thoughts I have. Maybe I'll have time during lunch.

I'm not defending the Dodgers by any means. As someone who looks at numbers for a living, I just want to know all the reasons for the increase.
bearkatag15
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Wonder if Altuve will ever get over his yips
Fightin' Texas Aggie and Sam Houston State Bearkat
CFTXAG10
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From Twitter: "Take away the Astros draft picks, they'll just sign the entire island of Cuba"

Quote:


redline248
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Would like to see the increase over last year for each pitcher individually. They already said Bauer is up like 500 rpm, what about the rest?
W
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yes, that's pretty telling (or pretty damning) for LAD
W
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also not surprised to see the White Sox at #2 in % increase of spin rate.

LaRussa never let the rules get in the way of anything going back 30+ years
Beat40
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redline248 said:

Would like to see the increase over last year for each pitcher individually. They already said Bauer is up like 500 rpm, what about the rest?
That's my point and what I'd like to know as well. Is the increase organic though addition of players or inorganic through illegal substance.

My guess is it is a combination of both. I don't want to label them purely as cheaters without knowing those facts. Up 7% year over year is eyebrow raising though.
Ag_07
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Beat40 said:

redline248 said:

Would like to see the increase over last year for each pitcher individually. They already said Bauer is up like 500 rpm, what about the rest?
That's my point and what I'd like to know as well. Is the increase organic though addition of players or inorganic through illegal substance.

My guess is it is a combination of both. I don't want to label them purely as cheaters without knowing those facts. Up 7% year over year is eyebrow raising though.

Well the screenshot of that spinrate leaderboard posted above shows Bauer, Kershaw, Beuhler, and Urias. The only player thay've added recently is Bauer.

Buehler, Urias, Kershaw are all homegrown.

Without digging really deep into the rest of their staff it looks like the high spin rate guys aren't coming from outside. I'm gonna go out on a limb and say it's not just because they're adding high spin guys.
Faustus
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Fat Bib Fortuna said:

As I predicted on this thread back on January 23, by June 4, Myles Straw will be leading George Springer in runs, hits, doubles, triples, RBI, stolen bases, walks, batting average, and on-base percentage. Who needs that guy?
It's a little funny that Springer has more HRs (2) in just four games played than Straw has in his career in the big leagues (1).

Springer also has a better WAR this year (.1 to -.1).

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/springe01.shtml

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/strawmy01.shtml
wangus12
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Mr.Ackar07 said:

Quote:

According to the data, L.A. has by a large margin the highest year-to-year increase of any club in spin rate on four-seam fastballs, which are considered a bellwether pitch. In fact, the Dodgers' four-seam spin rate is higher than that of any other team in the Statcast era. There is no proof the Dodgers are doctoring baseballs, but nearly across the board, their hurlers' spin rates on that pitch have increased this season from last.

The Dodgers declined to comment.
I'll be patiently waiting for their punishment to be administered.
Other than Bauer saying he was doing it right?
Beat40
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Ag_07 said:

Beat40 said:

redline248 said:

Would like to see the increase over last year for each pitcher individually. They already said Bauer is up like 500 rpm, what about the rest?
That's my point and what I'd like to know as well. Is the increase organic though addition of players or inorganic through illegal substance.

My guess is it is a combination of both. I don't want to label them purely as cheaters without knowing those facts. Up 7% year over year is eyebrow raising though.

Well the screenshot of that spinrate leaderboard posted above shows Bauer, Kershaw, Beuhler, and Urias. The only player thay've added recently is Bauer.

Buehler, Urias, Kershaw are all homegrown.

Without digging really deep into the rest of their staff it looks like the high spin rate guys aren't coming from outside. I'm gonna go out on a limb and say it's not just because they're adding high spin guys.
I ended up reading the article at lunch. The article mentions they also added two other relievers with high spin rates and let go to low-spin rate relievers, one of which is our very own Baez.

The article also mentions all but one of the Dodgers' pitchers had an in increase in spin rate from last year, but they don't list percentage each player increased.

So, I think the likely conclusion is the 7% increase is due to a combination of adding high spin rate guys for low spin rate guys AND illegal substances ,which is what I said in my previous post.

I do think they are cheating, but I do not think the cheating is attributable to the full 7% increase, not that it really matters.
bearkatag15
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Beat40 said:

redline248 said:

Would like to see the increase over last year for each pitcher individually. They already said Bauer is up like 500 rpm, what about the rest?
That's my point and what I'd like to know as well. Is the increase organic though addition of players or inorganic through illegal substance.

My guess is it is a combination of both. I don't want to label them purely as cheaters without knowing those facts. Up 7% year over year is eyebrow raising though.
I just spent way to much time comparing spin rates for the Dodgers pitching staff from 2020 to 2021.

In 2020, the average spin rate on 4 seam fastballs was 2304.24.

There are 7 pitchers from that staff that are no longer on the team. That group's average spin rate was 2243.14. They basically got rid of every low spin rate guy they could.

*side note* Josh Sborz had an avg spin rate of 2299 in 2020 with LAD. This year with Texas, it has shot up to 2435.

In 2021, the staff's average spin rate is now 2442.89. They have added 8 pitchers this year that weren't on the 2020 roster and that group's average spin rate is 2450.71.

I also noticed that 11 out of the 15 pitchers increased their spin rates. 5 of those 11 increased it by over 100 RPMs.

Kenley Jansen doesn't throw a 4 seam fastball but his cutter increased by almost 300 RPMs this offseason.



Something to note, I didn't take number of pitches thrown into account. So starting pitchers probably should be weighted heavier than a rarely used reliever but I don't have time to do all of that.
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EastCoastAgNc
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Correction to my post yesterday, he didn't have Tommy John.
bearkatag15
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Still only 24... maybe he can figure it out and contribute next year
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EastCoastAgNc
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I think he was at spring training, and he was not good. He's probably DFA or trade bait. He wasn't particularly good in 2017
bearkatag15
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EastCoastAgNc said:

I think he was at spring training, and he was not good. He's probably DFA or trade bait. He wasn't particularly good in 2017
He's not on the 40 man roster so they don't have to do anything with him.
Fightin' Texas Aggie and Sam Houston State Bearkat
EastCoastAgNc
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He was on it in 2017, he pitched in the majors. Was he previously DFA'd? He's either been on the restricted list or 60 day IL since then. When he comes off, I don't think they can take him off the 40 man without first doing a DFA
EastCoastAgNc
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EastCoastAgNc said:

He was on it in 2017, he pitched in the majors. Was he previously DFA'd? He's either been on the restricted list or 60 day IL since then. When he comes off, I don't think they can take him off the 40 man without first doing a DFA

https://climbingtalshill.com/2020/02/18/astros-francis-martes-may-finished-second-ped-bust/
Quote:

Martes is under team control through 2025, so it's unlikely the Astros will simply release him. But his 40-man roster spot could be in jeopardy when his suspension is done. A player serving a suspension does not count against a team's 40-man roster, but he'll have to be put back on the roster after the season or be designated for assignment.
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