How is our record not better than it is? We have the best offense in baseball and starters just outside of elite.

Starters (all guys with 40+ IP)

Player - ERA / xERA / FIP / xFIP
Luis Garcia - 2.93 / 3.40 / 4.27 / 4.10
Lance McCullers - 2.96 / 3.53 / 3.83 / 3.84
Jose Urquidy - 3.02 / 3.26 / 3.65 / 4.32
Cristian Javier - 3.08 / 4.23 / 4.22 / 4.23
Zack Greinke - 3.67 / 3.53 / 3.81 / 3.99
TEAM - 3.45 (9th) - 6th in starters IP

Player - wRC+ (100+ PA)
Gurriel - 151
Alvarez - 144
Bregman - 142
Correa - 138
Altuve - 132
Brantley - 129
Tucker - 118
Diaz - 100
Straw - 76
Maldonado - 50
TEAM - 117 (1st)

W said:

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the Astros have also suffered two "displaced" or "out-of-body" series in which they were swept by bad teams.

those 2 series are still dragging down the overall record

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Yep. Can't win every series but not salvaging a game in each of those series, coupled with that terrible Seattle/Colorado road trip is hurting our record. We should have about the same record as Boston and be leading the division by 3 games at this point based on production

Astros Single Season Outs Above Average (OOA) - data since 2016
1. 2016 Marisnick - 13
2. 2018 Marisnick - 12
3t. 2018 Reddick - 8
3t. 2019 Springer - 8
5. 2019 Marisnick - 7
6. 2017 Marisnick - 6
7. 2021 Tucker - 5
8. 2020 Tucker - 4

1. Jake wasn't even a full-time player and he's dominated this list. He's 13th all-time in baseball. (again, data only tracked since 2016)
2. It's a little surprising to not see George on the list more.
3. We're almost 1/3 thru the season and Tucker is at 5. If he keeps it up, he's got a shot for #1.
4. Not listed but Brantley is -8 since 2016.

RO519 said:

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Our bullpen is how... We should have swept the Padres, but the pen let them score an ass ton of runs...

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It really was brutal to see the pen gaak up those late-inning leads.

Farmer1906 said:

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How is our record not better than it is? We have the best offense in baseball and starters just outside of elite.

Starters (all guys with 40+ IP)

Player - ERA / xERA / FIP / xFIP
Luis Garcia - 2.93 / 3.40 / 4.27 / 4.10
Lance McCullers - 2.96 / 3.53 / 3.83 / 3.84
Jose Urquidy - 3.02 / 3.26 / 3.65 / 4.32
Cristian Javier - 3.08 / 4.23 / 4.22 / 4.23
Zack Greinke - 3.67 / 3.53 / 3.81 / 3.99
TEAM - 3.45 (9th) - 6th in starters IP

Player - wRC+ (100+ PA)
Gurriel - 151
Alvarez - 144
Bregman - 142
Correa - 138
Altuve - 132
Brantley - 129
Tucker - 118
Diaz - 100
Straw - 76
Maldonado - 50
TEAM - 117 (1st)

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The team record in 1 and 2 run games was quoted yesterday and it's pretty awful. A lot of that boils down to the bullpen. Dusty seems to wave the white flag if it's tied late in game by putting in Raley or Smith who turn around and blow the game. Hopefully that will get better now that we're getting arms back.

Top five, runs per game:

HOU 5.36
LAD 5.22
BOS 5.08
TOR 5.02
TB 4.96

Bottom five:

PIT 3.36
NYM 3.55
DET 3.59
NYY 3.74
BAL 3.74

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) June 1, 2021

The past week has been incredibly frustrating, but incredibly hope-inducing as well:

Lost 2 of 3 to the Padres - Frustrating

1 loss is somewhat understandable; a 1-run lead against their lineup could easily be in peril over a 2-inning period even with the best bullpen.

1 loss is inexcusable and while the attention falls to the bullpen blowing it...the truth is that Pressley made the pitches to finish the game off; Taylor just didn't catch the routine pop-up and gave arguably the most dangerous hitter in the game another chance.

We got 3 starters back from the IL and the team went 1-2 in those games against 2 of the more potent lineups in baseball, they turned in:

15 1/3 innings over those starts giving up 3 runs.

Additionally, they've now gone 2-2 against great teams where they're missing 1/3rd of the starting lineup and on games which would usually fall to Castro...4/9ths of it.

As frustrating as this weekend was b/c of the bullpen, it sure does seem like this team is rounding into a place where, when healthy, they'll be VERY difficult to beat b/c there are no holes in the rotation and the bullpen will be bolstered by guys like Javier and Garcia.

The Beef01 said:

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...the truth is that Pressley made the pitches to finish the game off;

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I get your point, but Tatis shouldn't have even stepped up to the plate down 3 with 2 on and that was on Presley (gassed or not)

Edit to add: I agree with you on the last paragraph when healthy. We faced a top 5 Padres team at close to full strength, if we had our full lineup in place and rotation/bullpen settled like I think it will be 2 weeks from now we beat them.

EastCoastAgNc said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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How is our record not better than it is? We have the best offense in baseball and starters just outside of elite.

Starters (all guys with 40+ IP)

Player - ERA / xERA / FIP / xFIP
Luis Garcia - 2.93 / 3.40 / 4.27 / 4.10
Lance McCullers - 2.96 / 3.53 / 3.83 / 3.84
Jose Urquidy - 3.02 / 3.26 / 3.65 / 4.32
Cristian Javier - 3.08 / 4.23 / 4.22 / 4.23
Zack Greinke - 3.67 / 3.53 / 3.81 / 3.99
TEAM - 3.45 (9th) - 6th in starters IP

Player - wRC+ (100+ PA)
Gurriel - 151
Alvarez - 144
Bregman - 142
Correa - 138
Altuve - 132
Brantley - 129
Tucker - 118
Diaz - 100
Straw - 76
Maldonado - 50
TEAM - 117 (1st)

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The team record in 1 and 2 run games was quoted yesterday and it's pretty awful. A lot of that boils down to the bullpen. Dusty seems to wave the white flag if it's tied late in game by putting in Raley or Smith who turn around and blow the game. Hopefully that will get better now that we're getting arms back.

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4-7 in 1 run games
2-4 in extra-inning games

I still think Raley can be serviceable.

Out of all pitchers that have thrown at least 10 innings, Raley has the biggest difference in ERA and FIP. Statcast backs it up with a significant difference in ERA and xERA (7.29 & 3.63). His BB% isn't ideal, but its still better than Scrubb, Abreu, & Stanek. Plus he strikes guys out at 30.5% clip. Only Stanek is better in our bullpen.

While looking that up Scrubb has the highest xERA (10 IP or more).

Chrundle the Great said:

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The Beef01 said:

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...the truth is that Pressley made the pitches to finish the game off;

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I get your point, but Tatis shouldn't have even stepped up to the plate down 3 with 2 on and that was on Presley (gassed or not)

Edit to add: I agree with you on the last paragraph when healthy. We faced a top 5 Padres team at close to full strength, if we had our full lineup in place and rotation/bullpen settled like I think it will be 2 weeks from now we beat them.

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This was my point as well. Pressly got cute with Machado when he had 2 outs and gave them extra chances by walking him.

So yes, Taylor should have caught that pop fly, but Pressly should have also attacked Machado.

After watching Raley pitch, I think he's been given an unfair shake. He's not been used properly, which isn't his fault. I think over the last couple of weeks he's really been serviceable. I think he's a mid innings guy or a guy to put up there when the line-up gets to mostly lefties. I'm still not sold he should be in a high-leverage situations against righties and asked to go get strike outs despite his K %.

Our young guys have the stuff, they just need to get the control. They got their feet wet last year, but no fans made it a little easier.

I'm wondering how much those guys are still adjusting to some of these big games with a stadium full of people.

We definitely need some veteran guys who will throw strikes, but I am wondering if we will see some of these young guys get better as the season progresses and they've pitched in some bigger games charged with energy from fans.

While we're hating on the bullpen here are a few more tidbits. The bullpen has given up 5 more runs and only 7 fewer walks than starters. They've managed to do this in about 100 fewer innings.

Frok said:

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bearkatag15 said:

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Kyle Tucker is still the most unlucky hitter in baseball, and that's after he just slashed .296/.378/.561/.940 in May. pic.twitter.com/4KkmMrSOGS

— The Astros Locker (@TheAstrosLocker) June 1, 2021

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Is he unlucky or do teams just know where to place fielders based on his tendencies?

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It's probably a combination of both. There are guys who are heavily shifted who still hit .280+. Heck, a couple of those guys are on the same team with Tuck.

Frok said:

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bearkatag15 said:

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Kyle Tucker is still the most unlucky hitter in baseball, and that's after he just slashed .296/.378/.561/.940 in May. pic.twitter.com/4KkmMrSOGS

— The Astros Locker (@TheAstrosLocker) June 1, 2021

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Is he unlucky or do teams just know where to place fielders based on his tendencies?

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He's done a decent job of spraying the ball around this year. Sure, there are some clusters, but not too bad.

31.7% Pull
44.7% Sraight
23.6% Oppo



He's got 3 balls hit 400+ (longest at 409) for outs this year.

I think Tucker has run into bad luck, but also as it's been pointed out teams shift him very well. The more he drives hits opposite field, the more likely the shift will move and open some places for him to get the gaps in Right center

Let's talk shift for a second. Guys like Tucker are heavily penalized with the shift. Sure, he pulls the ball ~32% of the time, but defenses can stick a guy into shallow right and throw him out. For righties, there is no such penalty. You stick a guy in shallow LF and he'll never throw you out at first. That is why no one gives a **** that Altuve (46.5%) & Bregman (46%) are dead pool hitters.

Yuli & Yordan are still the most likely candidates to regress (or continue to regress) while Tucker, Diaz, and Brantley are the most likely candidates to break out (or continue to break out).

For those who don't like x stats, this is just a tool. Not a hard and fast rule. No need to send me a note when Yuli goes 5/5 and Tucker goes 0/5.

Farmer1906 said:

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Let's talk shift for a second. Guys like Tucker are heavily penalized with the shift. Sure, he pulls the ball ~32% of the time, but defenses can stick a guy into shallow right and throw him out. For righties, there is no such penalty. You stick a guy in shallow LF and he'll never throw you out at first. That is why no one gives a **** that Altuve (46.5%) & Bregman (46%) are dead pool hitters.

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Never really thought about that aspect of the shift of righty vs. lefty. Thought more about having to keep a first baseman close. Shift is definitely more detrimental to a lefty. And I may be completely off base here, but I feel like Altuve has enough bat control that he'd pull less if he were shifted in that same manner.

Either way, Tucker continues to go opposite field and use the whole field these balls will fall for him. Luck will even out and he may make more holes for himself.

Shifts also have everything to do with where a player is hitting groundballs.

A guy can spray the ball all over the park and be a gap to gap hitter but if a majority of his GBs are hit to a particular side then he'll be shifted that way.

I think Tucker fits this scenario.

Astros batters vs Garrett Richards (RS starter today):

Ag_07 said:

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Shifts also have everything to do with where a player is hitting groundballs.

A guy can spray the ball all over the park and be a gap to gap hitter but if a majority of his GBs are hit to a particular side then he'll be shifted that way.

I think Tucker fits this scenario.

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That's a good point. I'll see if I can pull that later.

Farmer1906 said:

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Ag_07 said:

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Shifts also have everything to do with where a player is hitting groundballs.

A guy can spray the ball all over the park and be a gap to gap hitter but if a majority of his GBs are hit to a particular side then he'll be shifted that way.

I think Tucker fits this scenario.

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That's a good point. I'll see if I can pull that later.

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We can pretty much see it from this chart though. Most of his ground ball outs on this chart are middle of the diamond, through the gap between where the 2B and 1B would be normally positioned, and right at 1B.

Farmer's point is a really good one that I had never thought about before - the fielder playing shallow RF will always throw the left batter out when it's fielded. If it weren't for the fact a ground ball hit to the shallow RFer is always an out, Tucker's batting average is higher for sure.

Guys like Altuve and Bregman have an advantage of being able to beat out some ground balls hit deep into the shift by virtue of the longer throw.

tjack16 said:

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I think Tucker has run into bad luck, but also as it's been pointed out teams shift him very well. The more he drives hits opposite field, the more likely the shift will move and open some places for him to get the gaps in Right center

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I'd love to see him lay down a bunt every once in a while (he had a perfect one in a spring game) just to get an easy knock and help his average but I understand batting 5th that's frowned upon.